Last night, the U.S. stock market opened normally with a general increase, and the ETF data for BTC and Ethereum has also come out today, showing normal inflows. Therefore, under these circumstances, the weekend's market is still quite anticipated, and we can basically see a signal of warming and rising. You can see that the current market is still in a fluctuating range. Once there is a drop, the market will quickly recover, which proves that the funds from America have started to slowly recover.
Without any major bearish signals in the upcoming trends, the market will move around the upward range of warming states because the Fed's bearishness about the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 has mostly been digested. Although this week is the last Sunday of 2024, it also coincides with the expiration of 4.2 billion USD in options. Investors are likely to choose to defer rather than immediately sell off, so this wave of settlements will not have too much impact on the market.
Then let me show you the data, BTC net inflow is 475 million USD, Ethereum net inflow is 117 million USD. Ethereum has almost bought back the outflow data from two days before Christmas in just one day. However, Bitcoin is still lacking a bit. From this, we can see that institutions are slowly becoming interested in Ethereum. Although the price of Ethereum is still far from its historical high, the trend has shown that institutions and investors are more optimistic about it. If Ethereum can maintain this inflow, I believe its price will also rise, and the long-awaited altcoin season will soon be seen with Ethereum's efforts!
Bitcoin is currently moving in a rather tangled manner, mainly because the fluctuations of the three major U.S. stock indices last night were Dow Jones 0.07%, S&P 0.04%, and Nasdaq 0.05%. This is basically a magnitude smaller than usual. Bitcoin's volatility after the U.S. stock market opened was also relatively small, with the highest fluctuation reaching 96,600, and the lowest was above 90,500, with a maximum amplitude of only about 1,000 dollars. Bitcoin's trend is consistent with the U.S. stock market. After all, at the end of the year, these institutions and listed companies, whether cashing out for the holidays or balancing their accounts, have a certain impact on Bitcoin, but it does not greatly affect the trend. Besides the monotonous rising trend in 2020, other years have been characterized by fluctuating trends. The real breakthrough trends will appear in January of the following year. Therefore, there is no need to overly focus on Bitcoin's trend these days. The January market will definitely not be bad, especially since Trump is about to take office on January 20.
Apart from platform coins, the rest of the altcoins are basically performing quite average, especially BGB and Gate's GT, which have already reached historic highs. Previously, after BNB and HTX reached new highs, a new altcoin trend began. The early performance of platform coins is, in a sense, the initial performance of the altcoin cycle. Now we see the performance of second-tier platform coins. Does this indicate that it will be crazier than the previous round?
Ethereum will eventually lead altcoins out of the predicament and welcome the glorious moment that belongs to altcoins!
As an indicator for altcoins, Ethereum also includes many altcoin ecosystems built around it. Its ecosystem has already established a foothold in the market and is operational, including vibrant on-chain ecosystems!
Although there are many potential altcoins in the market that sometimes temporarily surpass Ethereum in heat, in the long run, the second position in the crypto world is still held most stably by Ethereum.
The most representative among them is SOL, sui, avax, and other public chains in the same sector. Recently, their performance has not been very notable, but these ecosystems are ultimately their own chains, while Ethereum has already crossed many ecosystems.
Now with the ETF funding entrance, Ethereum is more worthy of having a long-term holding advantage. Speaking of recent whales including institutions and listed companies, many wave-trading whales have frequently been trading around the 3500 position. Some institutions even risk raising their own costs to hoard large amounts of Ethereum. Perhaps this is signaling us retail investors that once certain conditions and triggers occur, it may be too late to get on board with Ethereum.
The year 2025 will be a time for Ethereum to showcase its strength. Currently, ETF spot staking is not allowed, and ETFs cannot be staked, including Grayscale's Ethereum, which also cannot be staked. This explains one of the reasons why the inflow funds for BTC's ETF have always been much higher than Ethereum's.
Once Trump takes office and changes policies, there is a high probability that staking will be allowed. After all, besides some altcoins, the largest holding in Trump's portfolio is Ethereum. After staking is launched, not only can there be an increase in annualized rates, but there will also be dividends to earn interest. The target audience for this area includes many whales and institutions that hold large amounts of Ethereum, and of course, the subsequent evolution may also include listed companies.
So the launch of staking will have the most impact on the Ethereum ecosystem, especially the staking sector. Currently, the standout altcoins in the staking sector, LDO and SSV, are relatively good choices. I believe that once the staking function is launched, the dividends to be gained will also include those from secondary altcoins!
Since the market began in March-April, Ethereum has been disliked by retail investors. However, have you noticed that Ethereum's decline has caused altcoins to be stuck for almost eight months, making everyone suffer from the bloodsucking and selling pressure brought by VC coins? Then, when Ethereum returned to its yearly high and broke through 4,000 in November, most altcoins followed suit with gains of 2-3 times.
Therefore, without Ethereum's gains, altcoins will have a hard time standing out. The ETF staking function for Ethereum is coming soon, and the Ethereum upgrade is also approaching. Thus, the anticipated altcoin season is also coming soon!
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