Bitcoin surged back to $99,000 with fluctuations, and the derivatives market maintains a neutral to bullish stance
Recently, Bitcoin rebounded 6.5% from a low of $92,458, repeatedly challenging $99,000, and is currently trading in a narrow range near that level.
(Cointelegraph) Analyst Marcel Pechman pointed out that although Bitcoin has pulled back from a high of $108,353 recently, the derivatives market remains neutral to bullish, indicating that market sentiment has not been significantly affected by price volatility.
Analysis of Bitcoin monthly futures contracts and options market conditions
Pechman stated that the Bitcoin 2-month futures monthly contract premium is 12%, indicating strong demand for leveraged long positions. Generally, a premium of 5% to 10% is considered neutral, as sellers take into account longer settlement periods in their pricing.
In terms of the options market, Pechman stated that Bitcoin put options (bearish) are trading at a 2% discount to call options (bullish), consistent with trends over the past two weeks. When large players and market makers anticipate a potential pullback, this indicator usually exceeds 6%, reflecting a situation of put option premium.
Source: Laevitas.ch Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium rate
Derivative data suggest a potential surge to $105,000
Pechman also pointed out that although on December 24, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF experienced record capital outflows, the Bitcoin derivatives and margin markets still show bullish momentum.
Taking the OKX exchange as an example, the Bitcoin long-short margin ratio is currently 25 times, leaning towards long. Historical data shows that when the market is overly optimistic, this ratio can exceed 40 times, while below 5 times is considered a bearish signal.
Bitcoin's daily line needs to stay above the 20-day EMA
(Cointelegraph) Another analyst, Rakesh Upadhyay, stated that the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is an important resistance line in recent days. If it can successfully break through, and if it closes above the 20-day EMA within the day, it indicates that the correction and consolidation trend has ended, and it is expected to challenge the historical high of $108,353 again.
As of the time of writing today, the 20-day EMA is at $98,492, while the Bitcoin price is $98,651.
Source: Cointelegraph Bitcoin's daily line needs to stay above the 20-day EMA
Since Trump's election, over-the-counter trading volume in cryptocurrencies has surged
In addition to derivative data, recent over-the-counter trading in cryptocurrencies has also been quite active.
According to (The Block), Kraken's institutional business director Tim Ogilvie revealed that OTC trading volume has increased by 220% year-on-year; market maker Wintermute's OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis also noted that the market was calm until prices rose before the election, prompting market participants to start positioning.
Brett Reeves, head of Go Network under crypto custody firm BitGo, stated that the US election is a significant driver of recent trading volume growth, with the past three months accounting for two-thirds of this year's total volume.
Ogilvie added that clients are also starting to shift towards riskier crypto assets, starting with Bitcoin, gradually moving to Ethereum ($ETH), and then to Solana ($SOL) and other altcoins, indicating a rising risk appetite in the over-the-counter trading market.
'Bitcoin Bulls Return! Analyst: Derivative Data Suggests Bullish, Expected to Surge to 'This Level'' This article was first published in 'Crypto City'
