O BTC deu início a uma recuperação na noite passada, impulsionando a maioria dos mainstream e imitadores para cima. No entanto, a chance de movimento ascendente ainda é menor do que de baixa no momento. Com o feriado de Natal no mercado de ações dos EUA, o entusiasmo comercial será menor se puder se estabilizar. perto de 98.000, esta já é uma boa situação. Se você receber as mercadorias no nível baixo desta rodada, poderá vender algumas delas de forma adequada para obter lucro e aguardar a oportunidade. #“圣诞老人行情”再现
Em termos de notícias, muitas notícias em 24 horas foram relativamente positivas para a ETH. Nos últimos 30 dias, o produto ETHETF atraiu mais de 12 bilhões de dólares em fundos, e os fundos saíram em apenas 3 dias. De acordo com Shenzhen TechFlow, em 25 de dezembro, o último relatório de Kaiko mostrou. Espera-se que a ETH cresça em 2025 devido à clareza regulatória, e a taxa de câmbio ETH/BTC deverá exceder 0,04, o que pode desencadear um boom da ETH. A volatilidade do mercado diminuiu durante a alta do BTC, e os ETFs à vista e o interesse institucional podem ser o motivo. O USDT saiu da bolsa, a entrada de BTC ultrapassou 15.000 peças e o mercado à vista continuou sob pressão de venda.
First, let's state the conclusion, followed by technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: The prediction is to fluctuate in the range of 94000-100000. Although the downward channel has been broken, the trading volume is still not large enough, and there is significant pressure on the options expiration date. Coupled with institutional non-increases during Christmas, the probability of downward movement is still higher than upward. There is also a possibility of a brief spike and correction. Currently, do not blindly chase highs; if there is a real opportunity to go below 95000, gradually entering is preferable. Missing the opportunity is always better than being trapped.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate around 670-710. Long-term holders should lock in positions to participate in airdrops. Although this round of the bull market has not risen as much as BTC, when accounting for airdrop rewards, it's actually comparable. One should consider who holds the most BNB; retail investors can't outplay the big players, and the big players can't outplay the exchanges. Those who understand, understand.
Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 3300-3700, and recent news has been very supportive of ETH strengthening. This rebound also seems to reflect that, with institutional buying pressure being much greater than for BTC.
Regarding the altcoin: Although the increase is large, the rebound lacks strength, which belongs to BTC's influence, still about 30% away from this round's peak. The rebound is also relatively weak when calculated proportionally.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the BTC candlestick chart, there was a rebound yesterday evening, with the 4-hour and daily lines breaking through the current descending channel, rebounding all the way to 99487, and then dropping back to around 98000 for consolidation. Looking at the MACD data, the distance between the DIF and DEA lines has narrowed, indicating that the overall trend is indeed moving away from a sharp decline. On an hourly basis, it is still undergoing a triangular consolidation, waiting for a new trend to emerge. Overall, the volume of last night's rebound was not large, and the low volume for testing higher levels is not very solid, which is why it is advised to avoid chasing highs for now.
2. Observing the greed and fear index: Currently at 73, which is considered greedy, remaining the same as yesterday, with market enthusiasm maintaining within the bull market range.
3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0105%, and for ETH, it is 0.093%, continuing to rise, with bullish enthusiasm returning to relatively normal levels.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options in the next three months: On the 26th, it was at 97000, with the volume still having little impact on the currency value. On December 27th, the maximum pain point increased by 1000, reaching 85000, with a nominal amount of 14.4 billion US dollars. The options contract holding ratio on the 24th was at 69.15%, indicating a strong driving force for price movement from options.
5. Regarding spot ETFS: The BTC spot ETF reduced by 3567 on the evening of the 24th, while the ETH spot ETF increased by 15,700. Institutions are very enthusiastic about holding ETH, and this increase in volume is relatively high.
6. Looking at the RSI relative strength index, BTC is currently maintaining strength on a weekly basis, and remaining neutral over 24 hours. Itai Fang is also maintaining neutrality on a weekly basis, and neutral over 24 hours, same as yesterday. ETH still has relatively low selling pressure.
7. Looking at the peak escape index, it is currently in the lower middle range, which indirectly suggests that the current position is not too high.
8. The BTC holding index has risen to 1.46, which is again not suitable for holding coins.
Overall judgment: Don't let a temporary rebound cloud your judgment; the risks have not been completely alleviated. You must control your trading impulses and avoid thinking about trading every day; acting on opportunities is the key.