During the Christmas holiday, traditional markets enter a closed period, but the cryptocurrency market has seen a significant increase driven by Bitcoin. Currently, the maximum pain point for BTC is $84,000, and for ETH, it is $3,000. However, based on market performance, it is highly likely that this year's annual maximum pain point will fail, similar to previous years. Additionally, the short-term implied volatility (IV) has continued to decline from yesterday, with market makers nearing the end of their position adjustments. IV is expected to remain stable before the end of the year. During the Christmas holiday to the year-end delivery period, market liquidity is poor, requiring little momentum for price movements, which may continue to show volatile trends.
From the candlestick analysis, the hourly chart has been experiencing continuous fluctuations and declines since last weekend, dropping from 99,500 to 92,500. Currently, with the 99-day moving average and the 25-day moving average forming a golden cross, the downward wave structure has been declared over. The future market direction will be more focused on the turning point of the 99-day moving average to determine the weekly K-line development direction. However, it is regrettable that the AO momentum bars have shown a reduction, which may hinder short-term upward movement. It is not recommended to continue going long #圣诞行情分析 .