Recentemente, os analistas de Wall Street começaram a discutir acaloradamente o Federal Reserve novamente. A BCA Research, uma conhecida instituição financeira, divulgou um relatório com uma previsão surpreendente: a Reserva Federal poderá cortar as taxas de juro mais no próximo ano do que o esperado anteriormente!
Por que você diz isso?
Há duas razões principais: a inflação está a cair mais rapidamente do que o esperado e o crescimento económico é um pouco fraco.
Todos sabemos que a Reserva Federal sempre considerou o controlo da inflação uma das suas tarefas mais importantes. Mas agora, a taxa de inflação está a diminuir. Os analistas do BCA acreditam que, com as tendências actuais, a inflação poderá ser inferior à meta do Fed no próximo ano.
On the other hand, the U.S. job market has also begun to show some signs of weakness. Although the unemployment rate is not high, the number of new jobs is decreasing. This indicates that the growth momentum of the U.S. economy is insufficient.
In the face of such a situation, what will the Federal Reserve do?
BCA analysts believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to choose to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Moreover, they think the extent of the rate cut could exceed the 50 basis points previously predicted by the Federal Reserve itself.
Why is there such a judgment?
Because the Federal Reserve's goal is to achieve a 'soft landing', controlling inflation while maintaining economic growth. If inflation falls too quickly and economic growth weakens, the Federal Reserve will have to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy.
So, when will the Federal Reserve start to cut interest rates?
BCA analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates as early as March next year. If inflation continues to remain sluggish, the Federal Reserve may cumulatively cut interest rates by 100 basis points before the end of the year.
What impact will this have on us?
If the Federal Reserve really cuts interest rates significantly, it is both an opportunity and a challenge for us.
The opportunity lies in the fact that lower interest rates will stimulate investment and consumption, which is beneficial for economic growth.
The challenge is that lower interest rates will also lead to rising asset prices, exacerbating asset bubbles.
In summary, the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments may have far-reaching effects on the global economy. Although ordinary people cannot change the overall situation, they can prepare in advance, seize opportunities, and avoid risks.
Finally, I would like to ask everyone a question: If the Federal Reserve really cuts interest rates significantly, what do you think will be the impact on the stock market, housing market, etc.?
(Note: This article only represents personal views and is for reference only)
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