In light of the upcoming Christmas market, we need to reassess Bitcoin (BTC)'s trend and develop corresponding trading strategies based on the current market environment. Yesterday's market performance was basically in line with expectations, especially in the execution of trading strategies. Although it was not perfect, the general direction and rhythm were indeed grasped quite well. My operations were also based on the previously proposed strategies: closing long positions, going short, closing shorts, and then going long again, with overall execution being very smooth.
As I emphasized earlier, BTC's current trend is weak. Although a rebound may occur in the short term, the overall trend indicates that price highs are difficult to reach expectations, while lows often fall deeper. Especially with the recent price fluctuations, lows seem more likely to exceed expectations, so we need to remain flexible in our responses.
Yesterday, although the Nasdaq's trend was basically in line with expectations—opening high, rising slightly before falling back, then probing low and rising, finally gradually reaching new highs and maintaining until the close—BTC's performance was relatively weak, especially in the second half's probing low and rebound, where its rebound time was significantly lagging, and the strength was far less than that of the Nasdaq. It is worth noting that other cryptocurrencies performed relatively well last night. Overall, although BTC and Nasdaq's trends are in the same direction, their rhythm and intensity differ greatly, making the recent movement of the Nasdaq crucial for BTC.
Yesterday, although the Nasdaq's trend met expectations, there are still some potential hidden dangers. First, the probing low strength and amplitude of the Nasdaq are relatively weak; second, the closing point is already close to the pressure area, with limited upward space, and a technical pullback is expected. These factors add uncertainty to tonight's trading.
Currently, BTC's trend is relatively weak. Since last Saturday, its daily highs and lows have been continuously declining. The only optimistic factor is that BTC has not yet fallen below last Friday's low. However, tonight's market sentiment still needs to be closely monitored, especially the direction of the Nasdaq. If a strong rebound occurs, BTC's trend may also be supported, but conversely, it may continue to weaken.
Today's trading strategy focuses on short positions, with long positions as a supplement.
Based on the current market analysis, today's trading strategy should focus on shorting, with long positions as a supplement.
Aggressive short positions can be chosen around 95200, with ideal short points at 96400 and 97200. Considering market volatility, shorting in batches is a more prudent choice. Set stop-loss around 98000, with a target downward range of 93000-93500. During operations, special attention needs to be paid to the movement of the Nasdaq; if it shows a strong rebound, the recovery strength of BTC may also increase, and short positions need to be settled in time.
Long Strategy:
For investors intending to buy low, around 93100 can be seen as a relatively ideal entry point. Set stop-loss below last Friday's low, with target price points at 95000 and 96200. If tonight's market trend falls in sync with the Nasdaq, be cautious of possibly breaking last Friday's low, leading to further declines.
In the current market environment, the trends of the Nasdaq and BTC are strongly correlated. If the Nasdaq fails to effectively support the market, BTC may accelerate downwards, so it is imperative to maintain a flexible response strategy. If BTC's decline is significant, it may break the current low's support, further expanding risks.
In addition, considering the early closing of the US stock market tonight (2 AM), market sentiment may fluctuate, especially before the Christmas holiday, where the trading volume and volatility may be larger, so investors should remain cautious.
BTC's current trend remains weak, and market sentiment continues to be driven by the Nasdaq's movement. It is recommended that investors adopt flexible strategies, focus on risk management, prioritize short strategies, and only execute long positions at low levels under appropriate risk control. As the Christmas holiday approaches, market uncertainty may further increase, so investors need to remain highly vigilant to guard against sudden market fluctuations.
Wishing everyone smooth trading before and after Christmas, safely navigating every fluctuation.