The market is ever-changing, and a stimulating and fulfilling day has arrived. Yesterday's oscillating market made many feel the brutality of the crypto world, also bringing some thrilling moments. Regarding yesterday's trading strategy, I must first apologize. The short-term long position was entered near 96000-96500, with a stop loss set at 95000, ultimately hitting the stop loss, leading to inevitable losses. After all, I underestimated the market's fierce volatility, especially when the European stock market opened, the low opening of the German DAX directly drove the Nasdaq futures down, and BTC also faced downward pressure in a short time. Although BTC's high near 98300 was already touched, the market's rapid decline and extremely swift reaction made hitting the stop loss particularly important.
At that time, I noticed that BTC showed no signs of rebound around 96000, and after directly breaking the low of 95600, I realized that the support level of 95000 was about to be lost. After hovering around 95000 for a while, BTC ultimately broke down, which was also my first calm acceptance of the strategy's failure - however, trading failures are also a valuable experience, making us more cautious and precise in future decisions. Meanwhile, the DAX short was also close to taking profit, leaving a subtle overall mood, but more excitement because, based on experience, such failures have accumulated more information for the next success.
Yesterday, I continued to adhere to the strategy of shorting at highs and buying at lows. At that time, the technical indicators for BTC showed that recent support levels were at 95600, 94000, and previous lows. Despite the market's volatility, I still believe BTC has a chance to rebound from the bottom, although I don't know the exact bottom position, but I can layout based on the price range of the support levels, and the risk is relatively controllable.
My operations are divided into three attempts:
Go long near 96000, but quickly hit the stop loss;
Try going long again near 94300, and the result was another stop loss down to 93800;
In the last attempt, I successfully bottom-fished near 92600. Although the initial buy order was set around 91000 based on BTC's trend, when I confirmed that DAX had reached significant support and showed signs of rebound, I decisively chose to enter the market again. This time, the bottom was successfully confirmed, and BTC also welcomed a rebound.
The rationale behind this operation is not only the trend of BTC itself but also the judgment on other markets (such as DAX and Nasdaq). As I mentioned in previous articles, BTC's movements sometimes exhibit a correlation with other risk assets (such as stock indices, gold, crude oil, etc.). Especially during extreme sentiment, market correlation tends to be more pronounced. Last night, ETH's bottom arrived about half an hour earlier than BTC, and ETH's rebound became a potential signal for BTC. As I said, details determine success or failure, and subtle changes in the market can often provide us with highly valuable information.
I sincerely apologize for not posting timely reminders for bottom fishing. On one hand, I also experienced two failures before finally succeeding, which caused some emotional fluctuations; on the other hand, the market conditions at that time led me to focus my energy on operations in other varieties, lacking the time and energy to update posts. Coupled with the stop loss issue of BTC, I chose to pause posting and only shared my trading ideas with investors around me.
As for the Nasdaq's rebound, although it seems to have recovered at the moment, the signs of a drop in the last trading session raise concerns. Historically, the Nasdaq is likely to retest. This issue can be set aside for now, and we can analyze it in-depth in the coming days.
BTC's market situation:
From a larger trend perspective, BTC is still in a range-bound oscillation. The current trading range can refer to 94000-107000. The trading strategy is:
When the price approaches the lower edge of the range near 94000, go long;
Go short when the price approaches around 107000.
You can operate based on the oscillation trend of the range to capture opportunities for small fluctuations. Especially near the current low, you might consider holding positions for a few days to wait for a market rebound.
In the intraday small-level operations, I suggest everyone continue to sell high and buy low, taking profits when they see fit. The market over the weekend may tend to stabilize with slight fluctuations, suitable for flexible operations. If you don't want to trade too frequently, taking a break for two days is also a good choice - after all, the crypto market never rests, with pressure and opportunities coexisting.
Today’s trading advice:
Buy: You can try to go long near 96800-97000, with a stop loss set at 96000, targeting around 98500;
Sell: You can consider shorting near 98900-99800, with a stop loss set at 100200, targeting 97000 and 96000.
However, it should be noted that the risk-reward ratio is not high; such operations are suitable for investors with some experience. If you feel the market is not very volatile, you can also choose to rest and wait for better opportunities.
Overall, after a round of high volatility, BTC may enter a consolidation phase in the short term, and traders can operate flexibly based on the range.