My thoughts on hot topics:
On the eve of Christmas, the bell has not yet rung, but there is already a chill in the market. The festive atmosphere seems unable to alleviate the market's gloom. With US stocks closed and liquidity decreasing, some are worried that deeper declines may occur under emotional dominance, choosing to leave early to avoid this 'Christmas disaster.'
I believe we still need to see how the Asian and European markets perform tomorrow. If they can maintain stability, even if the US market closes, it may not cause any major issues. But if the Asian market shows weakness and the European market transmits panic, Christmas may turn into a 'liquidation festival.' At such times, the direction of capital flow becomes particularly important.
Additionally, some fans have recently messaged me asking about the situation: Bitcoin is falling, but Ethereum and altcoins are actually rising against the trend. Is the altcoin season coming? My answer remains the same: the altcoin season will definitely come, but it will never start during a panic. Is it not too far from reality that while Bitcoin is falling, funds are going to buy altcoins as a hedge?
The real altcoin season is often accompanied by Bitcoin's sideways movement or slight increases, with high market sentiment and a spreading profit effect. The current market environment is more of a 'false peak' in small fluctuations, not enough to lift the curtain on the altcoin season.
Even if altcoin prices rise briefly during the Christmas period, it is mostly an emotional rebound and does not indicate the start of a trend.
Returning to the main character Bitcoin, according to historical patterns, the current oscillation and pullback is expected to last another two weeks. It is highly likely to break below the last liquidation long needle of 90600, and may even probe down to around 85000.
But this is not the end of this bull market, but rather a buildup of strength for the next round of increases. My personal expectation is that in mid-January next year, the market may welcome a new round of increases.
Furthermore, Ethereum has performed better than Bitcoin in this wave of decline and is unlikely to fall below the 3000-3100 range. The probability of Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin is increasing, making it more like a barometer of market confidence. And those altcoins that have been oversold in advance may be potential candidates in the subsequent market.
That being said, Christmas is a day of expecting miracles, but in the investment market, miracles only belong to those who make plans. In a market dominated by emotions, rationality is a scarce mindset. May this Christmas, our positions remain as steady as a pine tree in the snow, rather than wilting like leaves in the cold wind.
My view on the trend:
Bitcoin is currently consolidating in the 94K range, with an extended adjustment period. Due to hawkish interest rate cut expectations and the appearance of arbitrage selling, Bitcoin continues to adjust downward. Meanwhile, the buying power in the US market has weakened, further leading to the formation of a premium.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 95500.
Second resistance level: 97800.
Support level reference:
First support level: 92600.
Second support level: 90800.
Today's suggestion:
Currently in the resistance zone after the double bottom pattern, it may continue to maintain a box oscillation trend before a trend reversal occurs. If it breaks through 95K and forms a trend breakout, opportunities can be sought in the pullback zone.
If the bottom can be raised, there may be a short-term increase, but caution is needed in response to the potential adjustments brought by the resistance zone.
92.6K is the previous high point area and also the current key support level. Usually, if it breaks below the previously initiated point, the probability of a downward trend will significantly increase. Currently, 92.6K is a key support area, and if it can hold this point, it may maintain the possibility of a short-term rebound.
As there has not yet been a trend reversal, further declines cannot be ruled out. When long positions reach profit targets, one should take profit in a timely manner and accumulate gains.
12.24 My segment pre-setup:
Long entry reference: light long at 92600. If it pulls back to the 90800 range, go long directly. Target: 94800-95500.
Short entry reference: light short in the 95500-96000 range, target: 94000-92600.