#比特币市场波动观 coin price fluctuations are highly correlated with the halving mechanism, with a clear alternation between bull and bear markets every four years. For example, after the first halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin rose from $10 to $1,100 in 2013; after the second halving in 2016, the price rose from $400 to $20,000 in 2017; after the third halving in 2020, the price increased from around $6,000 to nearly $69,000 in 2021. However, after each bull market, Bitcoin has experienced astonishing corrections, with declines of over 80% from historical highs in 2014, 2018, and 2022, respectively. We are now at a critical moment.