O fenômeno da alta do Papai Noel, uma tendência sazonal de alta do mercado que geralmente ocorre na semana do final de dezembro, atraiu recentemente a atenção generalizada no espaço das criptomoedas.
À medida que 2024 chega ao fim, surge uma questão entre a comunidade de investidores em criptomoedas: será que esta tradicional recuperação sazonal perdeu o seu antigo brilho ou ainda contém potencial para impulsionar o mercado para cima?
O instantâneo atual do mercado mostra o Bitcoin (BTC) sendo negociado estável em torno de US$ 95,00, com ganhos de menos de 1% nas últimas 24 horas.
Following Bitcoin is Ethereum (ETH), whose price is also close to $3,291, with an increase of less than 1%. Additionally, Solana (SOL) and Binance Coin (BNB) are also showing slight upward trends, with the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market hovering around $3.5 trillion.
Despite some minor pullbacks in the market, trading volume remains at a high level. Notably, Bitcoin's market share currently stands at 55.08%, further highlighting its core position during this seasonal period.
The Santa Claus rally phenomenon has traditionally been closely linked to market optimism, increased buying behavior due to tax considerations, and active participation from retail investors. However, a series of recent events, such as the expiration of over $2.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options, has brought additional volatility to the market.
Options expiration is often a key moment for traders to adjust their positions, a process that usually accompanies price fluctuations.
From the on-chain data analysis, the current market signals present a complex situation. On one hand, the activity of large investors has slowed down, with a decrease in the number of large transaction records; on the other hand, retail investors continue to accumulate.
Meanwhile, key technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are hovering in the neutral zone, reflecting a lack of clear directional momentum in the market.
What does this mean for investors? In the coming days, the strength of the market rebound will largely depend on the breakout of several key resistance levels. Bitcoin needs to overcome the psychological barrier of $100,000, while Ethereum needs to regain the high ground of $3,500 to restore its bullish trend.
The Bollinger Bands indicator shows that market volatility has decreased, but once a breakout occurs, its impact could be profound.
In the current market filled with uncertainty, risk management is particularly important. Investors should closely monitor changes in momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI, while remaining vigilant about macroeconomic trends and regulatory dynamics that may affect market sentiment.
Although the Santa Claus rally did not bring explosive growth, its potential has not completely disappeared. As the market enters 2025, next week will be a crucial week.
