Bitcoin reserve strategy may become a new weapon for the U.S. to reduce debt - potential for 35% debt reduction
Recently, VanEck released an intriguing report proposing a bold idea: if the U.S. establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins based on the bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the national debt in the U.S. is expected to decrease by 35% over the next 24 years. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz pointed out in the report that if Bitcoin grows at a 25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), the U.S. debt could decrease by $42 trillion.
Specifically, VanEck assumes that Bitcoin will steadily rise from its current price, eventually reaching $42.3 million by 2049, while U.S. Treasury debt will continue to grow. According to the assumption, by 2049, U.S. national debt is expected to reach $119.3 trillion, meaning the appreciation potential of Bitcoin reserves could offset 35% of that, approximately $42 trillion in liabilities. Although this assumption is full of imagination, it also provides a new perspective, allowing us to gain a deeper understanding of the value and function of Bitcoin as an asset.
Coinbase's 2025 crypto market outlook: stablecoins, RWA tokenization, DeFi opportunities
Another market outlook from Coinbase is also worth our attention, especially its predictions for the crypto market in 2025. Coinbase points out that the next few years will be a critical period for further development in the cryptocurrency industry, particularly in stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and DeFi.
First, the prospects for stablecoins are very broad. Coinbase believes they are just getting started, and more regulatory policies may emerge in the coming years to promote the widespread use of stablecoins. The growth of RWA (Real-World Asset) tokenization is another highlight of the crypto industry, and this market is expected to see significant growth in the future. With deeper asset tokenization, the boundaries between traditional finance and crypto assets will become increasingly blurred, and more physical assets will enter blockchain platforms, becoming tradable tokens.
In addition, Coinbase also mentioned that the launch of crypto ETFs will change the supply and demand dynamics of cryptocurrencies. With more traditional investors participating, market liquidity will be greatly improved, driving up the prices of crypto assets. The revival of DeFi is also believed to enter a new era. With continuous improvements in protocols and infrastructure, decentralized finance will provide users with more diverse and low-cost financial services, promoting innovation across the industry.
Finally, the regulatory attitude is expected to change in the coming years. Coinbase anticipates that although the crypto industry currently faces numerous regulatory challenges, as technology matures and policies gradually clarify, the future regulatory environment will shift from headwinds to tailwinds. The 'legalization' process of the cryptocurrency industry will accelerate globally.
Metaplanet and El Salvador increase Bitcoin holdings - accelerating entry of global institutional investors
In the trend of global Bitcoin holdings, the actions of Metaplanet and El Salvador cannot be ignored. Metaplanet, a publicly listed company in Japan, announced the purchase of 619.70 Bitcoin for 9.5 billion yen (approximately $60.68 million), increasing its total holdings to 1,761.98 BTC. It is evident that more institutional investors are beginning to view Bitcoin as an important reserve asset, gradually incorporating it into their asset allocation.
Meanwhile, El Salvador's Bitcoin purchasing actions continue. According to Lookonchain's monitoring, in the past week, El Salvador purchased 29 BTC for a total amount of approximately $2.84 million, bringing its total holdings to 5,995 BTC, approximately $562 million. The large-scale purchases by these countries and institutions undoubtedly reflect the growing global appeal of Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
Zhao Changpeng's question: The calculation method for the UAE's $40 billion Bitcoin holdings is a mystery
Recently, Zhao Changpeng expressed doubts on social media regarding the data indicating that the UAE holds $40 billion worth of Bitcoin. He pointed out that this figure seems too large and difficult to verify its source. According to media reports, the Bitcoin reserves in the UAE are approaching $40 billion, far exceeding previous expectations. Zhao Changpeng also stated in his response that the process of collecting this data is quite difficult, especially in the absence of transparent data support, making it challenging to confirm its accuracy.
This event has attracted widespread attention, especially against the backdrop of the UAE, a traditionally oil-rich country, gradually turning towards the cryptocurrency market. Nevertheless, Zhao Changpeng's doubts also highlight the shortcomings of the cryptocurrency market in terms of information transparency and data accuracy, which still require the industry to strengthen self-discipline and regulation in the future.
Trump's ZF may accelerate the launch of DOGE ETF
Finally, Bloomberg analysts pointed out that the launch of the DOGE ETF may have to wait until Trump is re-elected. The expansion of the ETF market has been a hot topic in the cryptocurrency industry, and the launch of a DOGE ETF, as a globally popular digital currency, is seen as an important component of the market. However, Bloomberg analysts believe that due to the uncertainty of the current environment, the approval of the DOGE ETF may need to wait until either Trump or Atkins officially takes office. Although this expectation seems optimistic, it also reveals the deep contradictions that still exist between the crypto market and traditional financial markets.
According to Token Unlocks data, this week will see large unlocks for tokens like IMX and DBX, including:
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3:00 PM Beijing time on December 25, accounting for 0.44% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $13.22 million;
Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 26, accounting for 0.05% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $16.3 million;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 27, accounting for 1.45% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $32.12 million;
Beldex (DBX) will unlock approximately 330 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 30, accounting for 4.78% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $25.46 million.
BTC: Bitcoin formed a 'small bearish line' yesterday, indicating a relatively weak short-term trend. The weekly level formed a 'large bearish line', showing that overall market sentiment is bearish. Tonight's stock market opening will be key to the flow of ETF funds affecting market trends. If there is a significant outflow of funds, it may exacerbate bearish sentiment and apply further pressure on Bitcoin prices; however, if the outflow is limited or there is a net inflow, the market still has a chance to maintain its current fluctuating rebound pattern.
Overall, this week shows a fluctuating rebound trend, and after the rebound, the market is likely to choose a downward trend. It is estimated that this round of adjustment will take at least one month or even longer.
ETH: Ethereum formed a 'spinning top' yesterday and is currently at the 60-day moving average. Overall, this week shows a fluctuating rebound trend, but the height of the rebound may be limited. It is expected that after the rebound, the future market may choose a fluctuating downward trend, requiring patience for adjustments.
Altcoins: The performance of the altcoin market is largely a rebound linked to Bitcoin's overselling, and although there has been a short-term recovery, signals of fund recovery remain unclear. To see a sustained rise in altcoins, the market needs more speculative sentiment and capital inflow. However, currently, capital inflows are not stable, which makes the rise of altcoins lack lasting momentum. Overall, there has not yet emerged a truly strong sector in the market, and all rises are just minor fluctuations driven by Bitcoin, lacking independent upward momentum. In other words, the 'spring' for altcoins may not have arrived yet, and the market is still in a waiting phase.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 70 (Greed)#圣诞行情分析