$BTC After experiencing a wedge adjustment for half a year, a new upward trend has successfully emerged. However, with the strong performance in the overbought zone over the past five weeks, the current price has retreated to the upper Bollinger Band area. The weekly candlestick closed this morning at eight o'clock, showing a bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow, and the price has broken below the Fibonacci 1.15 level (95700) in the bear market pullback, while testing the support at EMA7 (93600). This trend indicates that the market's pullback pressure is increasing.
From the MACD perspective, the bullish momentum at the weekly level is gradually weakening, and the fast line has begun to turn downward, but it is still far from the zero axis, remaining in the bullish exertion area, indicating that the medium to long-term bullish trend has not completely weakened. On the other hand, the bearish momentum at the daily level is in an explosive phase, with both the fast and slow lines turning downwards, showing that short-term bearish strength is relatively strong. Moving forward, attention should be focused on the trend after the exhaustion of bearish momentum, especially when the fast and slow lines are near the zero axis, to see if a golden cross can form above zero, providing the bulls with a second opportunity to exert force.
Despite the dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve and the easing PAC data last Friday, which brought a strong rebound to the market, the recent decline in interest rate expectations and Powell's hawkish statements have created significant bearish pressure. Currently, BTC has not shown any obvious signs of stabilization, and this pullback has become the strongest adjustment since the main uptrend following the US election. However, this does not mean the end of the bull market, and I remain confident in the future movements of BTC. History has proven that in a bull market, every pullback is an excellent opportunity to enter the market, but one must wait for stabilization signals before going long.
It is worth mentioning that Trump has often quickly made fierce remarks to boost market confidence after the Federal Reserve issues bearish news. However, this time he has been unusually silent and has not made any rebuttals. Meanwhile, there are signs that the WLFI fund under the Trump family is quietly accumulating mainstream tokens like ETH and LINK. This unusual behavior may suggest that the strong distribution triggered by the Federal Reserve's bearish news could be a carefully planned long liquidation action.
From the daily chart perspective, BTC's key support levels are at 93600 and EMA55 (91500). If this level can stabilize, the price may oscillate widely between 91500-99500. If it breaks below EMA55, attention should be focused on the support strength at the Fibonacci 1.382 level (89500) during the bear market pullback. Meanwhile, the rebound and supplementary signals from ETH and altcoins should wait for BTC to stabilize before confirming.
In summary, the current market environment is filled with challenges, but every pullback is an opportunity for cautious positioning. Patiently waiting for stabilization signals and choosing the right moment to act accordingly will be the best strategy to cope with the current market.
