O círculo monetário finalmente se recuperou, mas... ainda cairá? Dê uma olhada rápida neste indicador chave!

Há rumores de que este Dogecoin deverá contrariar a tendência e subir 50%, e esta recuperação depende dele!

E não irá a Fed reduzir as taxas de juro no próximo ano? Ainda haverá um mercado altista no círculo monetário? Vamos dar uma olhada com Shu Qin.

Primeiro, vamos falar sobre as condições recentes do mercado. Existe um padrão muito interessante.

A queda nos últimos dois dias deve causar profunda repulsa a todos. Desde que Powell roubou a casa na manhã de quinta-feira, o círculo monetário e as ações dos EUA despencaram como se estivessem tomando laxantes. Muitos investidores estão um pouco confusos sobre a próxima tendência.

Shuqin found a very special signal here, which is that the market volatility VIX soared, with a single-day change reaching 74%, marking the second-largest percentage change since 2018. According to historical experience, a surge in VIX volatility often indicates the arrival of a bottom for Bitcoin and the S&P 500.

For example, in February 2018, Bitcoin plummeted 15% to a bottom, and then it rose from 6800 to 11,000 two weeks later. Also, on August 5, 2024, VIX soared to the second-highest level in history, and Bitcoin dropped 6% on that day, but then it rose from 54,000 to 65,000 in three weeks.

Therefore, a surge in VIX volatility often indicates a temporary bottom in the cryptocurrency and US stock market, and typically, the prices rebound or rise to a peak about 3 weeks later.

Three weeks later, there is indeed a hot topic in the cryptocurrency market, which is the inauguration of Trump and Musk. So at least before this favorable event arrives, Shuqin is buying on dips without any fear. When that day comes, we will see if there are any peaks to sell, after all, in previous bull markets Bitcoin performed extremely well in early January, and I'm willing to take a gamble. Even if I do lose, I will accept it.

Because that's how the cryptocurrency world is, there are no 100% certain trends, as long as there's a high probability, it's worth a try. Our industry is like walking on the edge of a knife, full of unknowns and challenges. It's truly not easy to make money.

In the short term, BTC and ETH have both rebounded quite a bit and should slightly retrace. If you haven't gotten on board yet, you should seize this opportunity during the retracement.

Okay, next, let's talk about a potential coin that can make you rich instantly; it is very likely to list on Binance.

As we all know, Binance has launched Binance Alpha, which is somewhat similar to Coinbase's listing roadmap. In the future, Binance will have a chance to select coins from here.

Now it has listed about 10 coins, which ones really have the capability to list on Binance? Shuqin doesn't dare to say about other coins, but I think Monky has the greatest opportunity because its background is strong.

If you often look at on-chain data, you will find that Monky has collaborated with the giant DWF, previously transferring 200 billion tokens to the DWF address. However, these tokens have all been transferred to various platforms for sale.

One of the issuers of the coin Monky is Floki, which airdropped 27% of the tokens to its users. So who is behind Floki? It's DWF. Previously, the institution DWF announced multiple times that it purchased tens of millions of dollars worth of Floki, causing its price to skyrocket, and I don't need to elaborate on the strength of DWF.

Actually, this is not the first time Floki has airdropped. Before airdropping Monky, it airdropped Simon Cat to token holders in September, and we even reported on it. Then Cat successfully listed on Binance this week and doubled in price.

So, Monky, as the second coin issued by Floki and also associated with DWF, is now selected for Binance Alpha, and it is also issued on the Binance chain. With so many factors combined, I believe the probability of it being listed on Binance in the coming months is actually very high.

All this information requires solid knowledge and a deep understanding of the cryptocurrency world to grasp. This is the unexpected money of cognition.

However, Shuqin also needs to mention that although the probability of him listing on Binance is quite high, it is not 100%. And while you are laying low, it may drop significantly like PNut, so even if it eventually lists on Binance, whether it can make up for the potential drop in between is still uncertain. This is one of the risks, so investing in low-cap coins must be cautious. If you encounter a favorable event that causes a surge, you must remember to take profits.

When PNut was listed on the Coinbase roadmap, I really urged everyone to take profits, and when Neiro surged due to favorable news, I also told everyone to take profits. You see, now they have both halved. This window of opportunity for escape is really that short. If you miss it, you’ll be trapped.

And Pepe Shuqin warned everyone to take profits when it surged to 0.26 and 0.27, all of which are documented. In this crash, our ETH successfully bottomed out at 3100. Shuqin updates various coins' positions daily, feel free to check it out if you're interested.

Next, Shuqin wants to talk about some challenges facing the cryptocurrency market environment. The 180-degree turnaround of the Fed's stance has made the probability of not cutting rates in January approach 100%, and the probability of not cutting rates in March is as high as 57%. Therefore, Powell's hawkish stance has truly impacted the process of easing, changing the expected four cuts in 2025 to only two cuts.

And all of this is caused by the resurgence of inflation, which has been unable to continue declining. But you need to understand one principle: the aforementioned rate cut expectations are based on the current inflation data. Once the inflation data starts to decline in the coming months, the Fed's expectations for rate cuts will rise again. So everyone shouldn't be too pessimistic; there's a considerable probability of reversal.

Why do I say there’s a considerable probability? Because the current 4.5% interest rate is definitely a high-pressure rate, which is double the normal 2% rate. Therefore, the rebound in inflation is likely a dead cat bounce, and the probability of decline remains high.

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At the same time, due to the weakening of rate cut expectations, the dollar has surged by 8%, reaching the 108 mark, which is extremely effective in suppressing inflation. This means that the purchasing power of the dollar has increased by 8%, allowing for cheaper purchases of goods from other countries, whether it's oil, daily necessities, or other commodities, thus lowering living costs, which is crucial in suppressing domestic inflation in the US.

Just like when the Fed raised interest rates in 2022, a strong dollar can purchase all resources at low prices, thereby reducing domestic living costs and achieving inflation transfer. Therefore, Shuqin maintains good confidence in the future decline of inflation and the Fed's subsequent rate cuts, at most, the easing time may be delayed by two to three months, and the bull market process may be a bit slower. However, this will not change the final outcome, which is the global easing in 2025. The performance of the cryptocurrency market will definitely be much stronger than this year.

So please hold on! Shuqin is with you, keep it up!

Finally, everyone, don't forget to follow, so you won't miss the daily updates from this piano!