Yesterday $BTC dropped significantly to 92232, very close to the support level of 90800. The subsequent rebound had a large trading volume, completely recovering the losses from yesterday, which indicates that both buying and selling pressures for Bitcoin are relatively strong.
From a positive perspective:
The selling pressure from ETFs has started to decrease, with net outflows from FBTC, ARKB, BITB, and BTC dropping from 548.6 million dollars the day before yesterday to 152.5 million dollars yesterday;
Open interest has shown a noticeable decrease, dropping from a peak of 68.1 billion dollars to 61.8 billion dollars, although it is still relatively high compared to December's low of 58.2 billion dollars;
Compared to the trading volume during the rise from November 5 to November 22, the trading volume during the past three days of decline is not considered large, indicating that selling pressure for Bitcoin is not too significant, which also means that the bull market has not yet ended, and the probability of dropping below 90,000 is relatively small.
From a negative perspective:
There is a large amount of trapped positions between 99000 and 103000, forming a resistance area, making the probability of a direct upward breakthrough relatively small;
From past experience, adjustments of this magnitude typically require about two weeks. Although the decline over the past three days has been significant, it is unlikely that the adjustment can be completed solely based on these three days of decline;
During the third wave (2023.9.11-2024.3.14), the fourth sub-wave was supported at the STH RP, and it is currently around 85000.
Therefore, the probability that the fifth large wave and the fourth sub-wave have already been completed is relatively low. One speculation about the future market development is that Bitcoin will oscillate sideways for a period of time, and when the STH RP approaches 90000, it will test the support level of 90800. This is just one possibility, for reference only.
