As the year-end approaches, friends in the crypto circle are always full of expectations for the 'Christmas market!' However, this year's market performance compared to the data from previous years seems to force everyone to reconsider the long-anticipated 'Christmas miracle.'
The market is adjusting, and confidence still needs to be restored.
Recently, Bitcoin's price has plummeted from a high of $105,000 to $90,500. Although this adjustment startled many, on-chain data shows that a large amount of BTC was 'absorbed' at the key support level of $97,500. This indicates that bulls have not completely given up and are still trying to defend.
Currently, the market is still in a bull cycle. Although the adjustment has made market sentiment somewhat weak, it does not mean the bull market has come to an end.
The Fed's hawkish remarks may exacerbate market pressure.
The Fed's recent hawkish comments have led the market to worry that year-end liquidity may further tighten. The US dollar index (DXY) has been rising, directly putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
In this environment, the market's risk appetite weakens, which means the explosive potential of the 'Christmas market' may not meet expectations.
Low liquidity in the market, institutions entering holiday mode.
Data shows that liquidity before Christmas is usually low, especially as North American and European institutional investors gradually enter holiday mode, with the market being dominated by retail investors.
If there are no significant positive news like ETF approval, the market is more likely to show fluctuations or slight volatility.
Predictions for the three major trends in this year's Christmas market
Fluctuating market: The main theme remains consolidation.
Due to the recent rapid adjustment in the market, it will take time for market sentiment to recover.
Therefore, during the Christmas period, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate between $95,000 and $105,000, lacking the momentum for a major breakout.
Altcoins Rising: The New Star of the Christmas Market
Whenever the market adjusts, funds often flow into altcoins.
So, if altcoins perform actively during the Christmas period, it may lead to a wave of 'localized Christmas market.' Especially strong coins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) may become the 'leaders' of the market, attracting funds' attention.
Positive news triggers a rise: good luck may be just around the corner.
If an ETF is approved or other large institutions enter the market, there is still potential for the Christmas market to explode.
The bullish sentiment remains this year, and fund-driven increases may still become the driving force. Once the market is ignited, it could trigger a wave of explosive market activity.
Investment Advice
In the short term, although the likelihood of market fluctuations is high, Bitcoin's bottom support remains strong. Therefore, for conservative investors, considering a phased layout and focusing on buying opportunities near $97,500 for Bitcoin, while also continuing to watch for low buying opportunities in strong coins like ETH and SOL, could be beneficial.
At the same time, remember to pay attention to some fundamentally strong altcoins, as there may be localized market movements.
