Macro Perspective：
1. A 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve was in line with market expectations
Rate decision + speech interpretation：
(1) The rate decision met expectations, which is a positive development, but in Chairman Powell's speech, he revealed that the Federal Reserve has no intention of holding BTC, and the inflation decline expectations have not been met, overall tone is bearish, and short-term prices may fall as a result
(2) Regarding next year's monetary policy, he indicated that a rate hike seems unlikely, which superficially leans towards being positive, as the overall tone is relatively loose, however, the word “seems” carries significant uncertainty, especially in light of stagflation and the recent strong US economic data, more data will be needed to validate this view
2. Following Powell's mention of slowing rate hikes, the overall interest rate level remains high, and elevated interest rates usually drag on the stock market and reduce investment attractiveness—US stock markets suffered a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq experiencing its largest single-day drop since August
3. Trump's crypto project World Liberty has increased its holdings by over 230,000 ENA, the capital increase is a positive signal, and buying opportunities in the market should be monitored
4. Liquidation data shows a significant increase in long positions compared to previous days, with short positions dominating in the short term
5. The BTC spot ETF was negatively affected by Chairman Powell's hawkish rhetoric and the price drop, experiencing its first outflow after maintaining net inflows for 14 consecutive days
Technical Perspective：
BTC
1. On the daily chart, a bearish evening star pattern has officially formed, a large bearish candlestick line engulfs the movement
2. A large bearish candlestick breaking below the channel's midline is a true breakout, with healthy volume-price cooperation, watch for the recovery situation after breaking the midline, in a short-term bearish context, consider the midline's reverse pressure
3. Currently, the focus is on the buying opportunity supported by the resonance of the channel's lower boundary and the lower boundary of the BOLL band, the overall bullish trend remains before a formal breakdown
4. On the 4H chart, the pattern shows an inverted V reversal, completing a 1:1 decline, after the rising trend line was broken, its reverse resistance level coincides with the previous high point's reverse resistance level—this is key for the bulls to regain strength in the future
5. On the 1H chart, a head and shoulders top pattern has completed a 1:1 spatial movement, where the low point resonates with the long-term EMA moving average
6. Considering the KD + RSI are oversold, supported by the long-term EMA moving average, the short-term operating range can refer to the EMA moving average range—high sell low buy