Bitcoin began a slight pullback after touching the upper resistance line, then rose again to break new highs, and the price is at a critical position. Currently, the probability of a breakout is quite high, being at the upper edge of the upward channel line. Only after the breakout will the next upward space begin. The small-level continued bullish sentiment doesn't have much operational space at the moment, while yesterday's slight pullback also caught some longs, with a few thousand dollars increase. If it drops below $105,000 again, consider continuing to catch longs, but I can only say that the probability of catching at this position is very low.
Bitcoin hits a new high, but altcoins are generally in a state of pullback. When will it be altcoins' turn to rise?
Although the total market capitalization of the crypto market has successfully surpassed $3.9 trillion, setting a new high, this is mainly due to Bitcoin. At this time, Bitcoin's market share has also surpassed 57.38. On major CEXs (centralized exchanges), the funding rate is generally below 0.01%. Usually, a funding rate above 0.01% indicates a bullish market, while below indicates a bearish market, so the current funding rate situation does not support altcoins continuing to rise.
Although Ethereum has performed better than most altcoins, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still declining. However, last week, the inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs reached $850 million, creating a weekly historical high, indicating that off-market sentiment towards ETH is warming up.
Several institutions predict that Ethereum will reach a historical high by the end of the year. I also think there’s little issue with this, as long as the Ethereum Foundation does not create any more trouble, reaching ATH should be as simple as breaking through a layer of window paper.
The turnover period of ETH has passed, and this week is the acceleration time. First, let ETH open up space upward, and then altcoins will follow suit. The ETH that is rallying has become much clearer!
Today, we mainly talk about the dark horse HYPE, which only rises and does not fall.
Since HYPE went on CoinGecko, it has hardly ever dropped, which is truly amazing. This is the first time I have seen a coin able to rally for half a month continuously, fully demonstrating that DEX (decentralized exchanges) is the true 'academic' in this round of market.
If VCs are being spurned this round, then DEX might be relatively promising; otherwise, how could HYPE rise so much? After some research, I truly found a market-making rule for HYPE! Below, I will discuss the rallying tactics of Hyperliquid:
We can divide its rally situation into three phases:
Phase one of the rally: November 29 to December 4.
Phase two of the consolidation: December 5 to 10.
Phase three of the rally: December 11 to today.
Back then, all the VCs supporting FTX stood up to support Hyperliquid. If you say it has no VCs or backers, I find that a bit hard to believe, as the VC community is buzzing about it. So I made a comparison chart of HYPE and FTX, take a look.
The new round of Hyperliquid spot seat auction has, as expected, broken through new highs.
At just 5% progress after the auction started, the dev of god couldn't wait to buy the seat at a new high price of $970,000. If this price can be maintained, the annual spot revenue will reach as high as $270 million, and the spot revenue part is rapidly catching up with contract revenue.
So, why can HYPE's decentralized listing fetch such a high price?
Currently holding $5 million of HYPE at a high position, but everyone must pay attention to risks. Prices around 3 to 10 are relatively better — because this price is much cheaper than 28. If the price of HYPE drops below 10, then there is a chance to buy a quantity of $10 million. For this target, such a position would make me feel more comfortable.
Whales are also buying coins at several tens of millions of dollars.
How to select quality altcoins?
From a long-term perspective, with the introduction of a series of new policies after Trump's inauguration and the appointment of a new SEC chairman, the upward trend of the crypto market remains promising. Especially during the period from January to February 2025, there is a high possibility of welcoming a new round of upward trends. If Bitcoin can continue to attract capital inflows and mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum make progress, then altcoins may experience a surge similar to earlier this year.
Currently, in terms of institutional investment strategies,
Institutional investors firmly dominate the market trend. Especially the Trump family and some large institutions like BlackRock have shown great interest in DeFi (decentralized finance) and RWA (real-world assets) projects.
By following the investment direction of these large institutions, one can choose some cryptocurrencies they are currently investing in, such as AAVE, ONDO, ENA, etc. These are currently outstanding projects. In fact, this also serves as a barometer with certain reference value. However, retail investors are not suitable to completely follow the steps of institutions, as the scale of funds is not on the same level.
Meme coins and AI-related coins
Of course, besides mainstream coins, meme coins are also a hot spot in the market. DOGE and FLOKI under Musk’s name are worth attention, especially the potential space for DOGE still exists. If you feel that DOGE's space is limited, consider diversifying some small positions into meme coins like PNUT and NEIRO.
Additionally, AI-related meme coins may become the fastest-growing sector in the next wave, worth close attention.