The author of this article is Ruchir Sharma, Chairman of Rockefeller International.

I (Ruchir Sharma) previously referred to the enormous share of the US in global financial markets as the 'mother of all bubbles', but the main rebuttal I received was that there is no indication that this bubble will shrink in the short term, a rebuttal even from a few who agree with my viewpoint.

Almost no one predicts an imminent crash in the US stock market. Nearly all Wall Street analysts predict that by 2025, the US stock market will continue to outperform other regions of the world. But all this enthusiasm often only confirms that the bubble is in a very serious stage. If the consensus of 'American exceptionalism' is so overwhelming, who else will join this trend and further inflate the bubble?

Confidence on Wall Street has spilled over into the mainstream media, which often only pays attention to market trends when they are already established and nearing their end. Nowadays, the hype surrounding American exceptionalism has become material for television, radio, podcasts, newspaper columns, and magazine cover stories, which have often pointed in the wrong direction regarding future trends.

Bulls believe that the impressive earnings of American companies allow the US to maintain its dominance. However, without the extraordinary profits of large American tech companies and massive government spending, US profit growth would not look so special. Over time, extraordinary profits will be eroded by competition. Additionally, economic growth and profits have been artificially boosted by deficit spending.

Nevertheless, most economists believe that the economic boom will continue due to the healthy balance sheets of American households and businesses. A minority worried about President-elect Trump's tariffs or immigration plans tend to believe that the damage to foreign economies will outweigh the damage to the US economy.

The problem for the US is its increasing reliance on government debt. My calculations show that the US now needs to add nearly $2 in government debt to generate $1 in GDP growth. If other countries spent in this way, investors would have fled long ago, but now they believe that the US, as the world's leading economy and reserve currency issuer, can withstand anything.

More likely, at some point next year, investors will no longer buy it, demanding higher interest rates or proof of fiscal discipline, which may be triggered by larger deficits or more substantial government bond auctions. These demands will at least temporarily free the US from its reliance on government spending, further harming economic growth and corporate profits.

It is important to clarify that this is a bubble in the performance of the US relative to the rest of the world, not a market frenzy like in the 1990s. Therefore, if alternatives begin to seem more attractive, the bubble can gradually deflate.

Perhaps Germany and France will be able to do something economically, just as Greece and Spain did a decade ago when they faced pressure.

But analysts blinded by 'American exceptionalism' can only talk about how the US has been the world's leading market for the past century. They forget that in 6 out of the last 11 decades, the US stock market has underperformed relative to the rest of the world, with the most recent instance in the 2000s when the US stock market had zero returns while emerging markets tripled in value.

If the US economy slows down, or if other major economies accelerate, or for unforeseen reasons, the US's outstanding performance relative to other countries may come to an end.

Bubbles often end unexpectedly. The longer a trend continues, the more confident investors become, and they will more indiscriminately throw themselves into the frenzy. In the late stages of a bubble, prices typically rise exponentially, and in the past six months, the US stock market has seen the largest increase in at least 25 years.

All classic signs of extreme prices, valuations, and popularity indicate that the end is near. It is time to oppose the 'American exceptionalism'.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data