The crypto market mainly looks at BTC’s behavior. Over the weekend, Bitcoin trended upward with volatility, showing signs of a blood-sucking consolidation to maintain high levels. Most mainstream trends are weaker than BTC; Bitcoin is about $1,500 away from the previous high, feeling like it could break a new high at any moment, and indeed, it broke the historical high again this morning.
I don’t know how BTC, which has already reached new highs, will respond to the favorable conditions after the US stock market opens tonight. I hope it leads to significant ETF buying, meaning don’t crash BTC; the sentiment remains good.
Now at the 105,000 position, if you ask me whether we’ll hit 11 first or return to around 10, I might lean towards the latter. However, after a pullback, it’s still possible to break the previous high again. Right now, it’s definitely a torment for futures capital; as soon as one side has significant capital, it will be guided by the funds and get harvested.
Then this week only remains the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. A 25 basis point rate cut is almost a certainty; it’s just a matter of Powell's speech, which may stimulate market speculation on new sentiments. Japan is not expected to raise rates this month. So especially in these few days, the market direction is crucial, as there are only a few days left until Christmas.
If we view this recent new high as the beginning of a new round of increases, there are two possibilities:
The first possibility is a small push at the same level as the previous round of increases;
The second possibility is that the last round of increases was the first wave, and the rise starting from June 10, 100609, is the first round of the third wave; we need to observe the performance after the US stock market opens tonight to make a judgment.
The above analysis is a prediction, but: "When trading, follow the main trend and use predictions as a supplement";
Whether BTC rises violently or steps up slowly, as long as BTC remains strong and doesn’t drop, it will be good days for the entire crypto market, and opportunities in the altcoin market will emerge during BTC's strong period.
Rational FOMO! Beware of the Christmas heist!
Speaking of Christmas: If the US stock market opens this week with BTC and ETH continuing to rise, then altcoins may still have hope; mainly, ETH is underperforming, and many altcoins are not breaking through as strongly as expected.
If BTC and ETH cannot continue to rise when the US stock market opens this week, then altcoins may not look good, especially next week during Christmas.
It’s not that Christmas will definitely see a drop; rather, Christmas presents a risk:
Christmas is a very important holiday in the West, with many settlements at year-end. Since the US stock market will be closed, it’s uncertain how BTC will behave without market makers; if BTC drops, then altcoins may not look good.
So, there has indeed been some capital outflow recently, causing short-term market lethargy. According to past patterns, market bottoms usually occur around Christmas. This sentiment continues until after New Year's Day. Therefore, controlling your own position, what to hold, and maximizing profits must be chosen wisely.
Of course, regardless of how it goes, it won’t affect the upward trend:
After New Year’s Day, with Trump officially taking office and the new SEC chairman, the new uptrend will definitely continue. As long as there are no economic recessions, unemployment rate issues, etc., it’s all good. At least January to February 2025 is something to look forward to. To expect several times the increase in secondary altcoins like earlier this year, BTC needs to maintain the FOMO sentiment, and especially ETH needs to exert strength.