The market is still continuing in the later stage of the bull market, overall fluctuating upwards, maintaining a rhythm of three steps forward and one step back, which is quite healthy; the madness at the top has not yet appeared. Today, I symbolically sold a small amount of Bitcoin at 105,000. It's not that I feel the market has peaked, but I want to use this action to tell myself that the upcoming phase is about escaping the peak, only selling and not buying (I need to break my psychological cleanliness of being reluctant to sell during the bull market), and also not thinking about holding everything in hand waiting to sell at the highest point. Gradual liquidation, pulling back while shooting.
The upcoming cryptocurrency market still has a lot of good news, and the market will definitely continue for a while. However, the market often experiences sudden drops when a series of good news is gradually realized or being realized, and when everyone is almost fully invested and reluctant to sell while increasing their investments, a potential black swan may suddenly strike, causing a sharp fall from a high altitude. This is essentially because the bubble is no longer sustainable in the later stages; even a slight negative news can trigger sensitive traders to flee, leading to a stampede and a larger-scale escape and stampede, followed by a complete escape and stampede. This phase is somewhat like nuclear fission; as long as the critical conditions for fission are met and triggered, traders find it difficult to escape unscathed from the shockwave of the fission. Therefore, it's better to sell in batches ahead of time, even if it's slightly earlier, keeping a safe distance is far better than being forced to make harsh decisions during the fission stampede.
The current market is slightly boring in a regular manner; waiting is often the most exhausting for patience. Instead of idly seeking entertainment, it’s better to predict the potential black swan of this round of the cryptocurrency bull market. Who will become the fuse for the nuclear fission of this bull market? The following predictions may ultimately be completely off-base and far from the point. But what I want to convey is that when the bull market continues into the later stages and the bubble accumulates seriously, there will definitely be some unexpected events to burst the bubble, leading to a sudden reversal of the market and the arrival of a bear market (except for those with a probability of over 50%, the other probability values are just made up to express the degree of possibility):
1. After the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to a certain level, it may interrupt the rate cuts due to inflation rising again or other reasons. Probability: over 50%
2. (The Bitcoin market is now highly correlated with US stocks) If US stocks experience weekly or monthly level corrections, with a drop exceeding 20%, for a duration of over 3 months. Probability: over 50%
3. A medium-sized financial crisis occurs in Europe and America, leading to liquidity tightness and a significant drop in the US market. Probability: over 30%
3. Trump's presidency is not smooth or he encounters unexpected events during his term. Probability: 20%
4. Musk encounters unexpected events while promoting radical new policies in the DOGE department (Eastern Factory Efficiency Department). Probability: 15%
5. Geopolitical events similar to the 🦢 Ukraine war may again create significant changes, impacting global financial markets. Probability: 10%
No matter when the black swan will come or in what form it will break through the bull market bubble, my suggestion for the cryptocurrency market in 2025 is as follows:
1. Start actively observing the indicators and various signs of the market reaching its peak from now on.
2. From now until the end of 2025, in principle, only sell and do not buy.
3. Please do not re-enter the market for the parts that have been sold, even if they were not sold at the highest point.
4. Reduce leverage as soon as possible (if any), and gradually liquidate Bitcoin before altcoins.
5. When the black swan appears significantly at the end of the bull market, a split has already occurred. If you can't clear your positions in time or are reluctant to do so, please be sure to convert all altcoins into Bitcoin at the first opportunity to save yourself.