Market Review
The US dollar index continued to rise this week, with CPI data meeting expectations while indicating that the inflation decline process is hindered, and the rate cut outlook for 2025 remains unclear. The tone of a 'strong dollar' has not changed. As of the time of writing, the dollar index hovered below 107, and it is expected to record a second consecutive week of gains.
In the spot gold market, geopolitical tensions have intensified, and expectations for the Fed's third rate cut next week supported spot gold, which peaked at $2726/ounce during Thursday's Asian session. Subsequently, investors began to take profits, and gold prices turned down and fell below the $2700 mark. Additionally, on Wednesday's Asian session, there was a significant price difference between spot gold and silver, and financial institutions believe that market liquidity issues are the 'culprit.' As of the time of writing, gold has fallen back to around $2660.
In terms of non-US currencies, under the pressure of a rising dollar, the euro, pound, and Australian dollar all recorded declines this week. The Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points, and the dollar rose against the Swiss franc, halting two weeks of declines. Due to informed sources revealing that the Bank of Japan may not raise rates next week, the yen experienced significant fluctuations, recording a second consecutive week of gains.
International oil prices rose overall this week, driven by increased uncertainty in the Middle East due to the situation in Syria, expectations that crude oil demand will rise from the world's largest buyers, China and Europe, and the EU agreeing to implement a new round of sanctions on Russian oil exports, which may tighten global crude oil supply. However, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth for the fifth consecutive month.
In the stock market, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs again this week, with the Nasdaq breaking 20,000 points for the first time in history. Tesla's stock price hit a record high for the first time in three years, with its market value increasing by $556 billion since Trump was elected president, making Musk the world's first person worth over $400 billion. Google's stock price also reached a new high this week, with a market value exceeding $2.4 trillion, thanks to its new generation quantum computing chip, Willow.
In terms of digital currencies, Bitcoin briefly returned above the $100,000 mark this week but experienced significant fluctuations, such as a sharp drop on Monday before fully recovering, resulting in nearly 500,000 liquidations.
Investment Bank Insights
ING expects gold prices to continue this year's trend of hitting new highs in 2025, with the average gold price expected to rise to $2760/ounce. Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2025, gold prices will rise to $3000/ounce, with a strong dollar not being a major risk factor. Citigroup is also optimistic about gold's prospects, with a three-month price target of $2800/ounce and a twelve-month price target of $3000/ounce.
Goldman Sachs believes that global long-term capital is regaining confidence in Chinese IPOs; CPI clears obstacles for the Fed's rate cut next week, and policies are expected to gradually relax in the future.
JPMorgan noted that with expectations of a weaker Fed rate cut, it is optimistic about the Chinese stock market's value outperforming growth styles in 2025; Trump's policies may benefit the overall US economy, but the key will be how they are implemented.
Capital Economics stated that Assad's fall is unlikely to have a significant impact on the energy market.
Jefferies stated that US small-cap stocks are expected to outperform large-cap stocks for the first time in eight years.
Weekly Highlights
1. The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China: Stabilize the real estate and stock markets, expand domestic demand.
The meeting concluded that the overall economic operation this year is stable and progressing steadily, and the main targets for economic and social development for the year will be successfully completed. The meeting emphasized that to do a good job in next year's economic work, more proactive and effective macro policies should be implemented to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, prevent and resolve risks in key areas and external shocks. Next year, more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies should be implemented, with enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments. Efforts will be made to boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all aspects. Technological innovation should lead the development of new quality productive forces and build a modern industrial system. High-level opening up should be expanded, stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment. Efforts should be increased to guarantee and improve people's livelihoods, enhancing the sense of gain, happiness, and security among the populace.
2. Central Economic Work Conference: Implement more proactive and effective macro policies, increase the fiscal deficit ratio.
The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting pointed out that next year the economy should maintain stable growth, keep employment and overall price stability, maintain basic balance in international payments, and promote the synchronization of residents' income growth and economic growth. More proactive fiscal policies should be implemented to increase the fiscal deficit ratio. A moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented, with timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates. The RMB exchange rate should remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The meeting determined that next year, nine key tasks such as vigorously boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency should be prioritized.
3. The European Central Bank cuts rates by 25 basis points, opening the door for further rate cuts.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank conducted its fourth rate cut of the year, and the policy statement removed the reference to keeping rates 'sufficiently restrictive,' opening the door for further cuts in the future as inflation approaches its target, and the economy remains weak. The bank also lowered its economic and inflation forecasts for this year and next.
European Central Bank's three key interest rates were cut by 25 basis points, with the deposit rate lowered from 3.25% to 3.0%. The European Central Bank stated that the financial environment has eased, and the recent rate cuts have reduced borrowing costs for businesses and households, but the financial environment remains tight, as monetary policy is still restrictive, and past rate hikes are still being transmitted to outstanding stock credit.
President Lagarde stated that economic growth faces downward risks, inflation is expected to fluctuate at current levels in the short term and then stabilize at the mid-term target of 2%, but there are dual risks. This meeting considered a 50 basis points rate cut, but the committee ultimately agreed that a 25 basis points cut was the correct choice, and decisions will continue to be made at subsequent meetings based on data.
In terms of other central bank dynamics, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.35% for the ninth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations. The Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points, marking its fourth consecutive rate cut, while the market generally expected a cut of 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate from 3.75% to 3.25%, marking its second consecutive month of a 50 basis point cut, in line with market expectations, totaling a 175 basis point cut this year.
4. US CPI rose for two consecutive months, but expectations for rate cuts continue to heat up.
Data released on Wednesday showed that the US November unadjusted CPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.7%, rising for the second consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, the largest increase since April. The unadjusted core CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%.
After the CPI data was released, swap traders increased their bets on the Fed cutting rates before the end of 2025. They now expect a total cut of 87 basis points by then, meaning the Fed will likely cut rates by 25 basis points next week; two more cuts of approximately 25 basis points each are expected in 2025, which is fewer than the four cuts suggested by Fed officials in the latest quarterly dot plot in September.
5. After the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, the geopolitical game in the Middle East enters a new stage.
According to sources from the Kremlin, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow, where Russia has provided them with asylum. Meanwhile, the leaders of the Syrian opposition armed groups have promised to ensure the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in Syria. The Russian side has also engaged with representatives of the Syrian opposition to prepare for a possible power transition in Syria.
The opposition has authorized Muhammad Bashir to establish a transitional government in Syria under the 'Syrian Salvation Government.' The 'Syrian Salvation Government' was established by the Syrian opposition, with Bashir serving as its prime minister.
This week, Israeli ground forces publicly crossed the border into Syria for the first time since the Fourth Middle East War, marking a significant shift in Israel's policy towards Syria. The Israeli military has recently struck 320 strategic targets within Syria, destroying about 70% of Syria's military capabilities and continuously deploying troops in the military buffer zone along the Golan Heights border.
Israeli officials revealed that as the Assad regime in Syria approaches collapse, Israel is preparing further actions against Iranian nuclear facilities. The Israeli military believes that Iran may use its isolated situation to accelerate its nuclear program. Currently, Israel has destroyed Syrian air defense systems, clearing the way for possible airstrikes.
Additionally, the United States is re-evaluating its relationship with Syrian opposition organizations. An anonymous senior US government official stated that the US might remove the 'Sham Liberation Organization' from the list of terrorist organizations to promote cooperation and support the Syrian transition process. This adjustment reflects the US's realistic considerations in the complex situation in the Middle East.
6. The individual pension system is being rolled out nationwide.
Starting from December 15, the individual pension system will be rolled out nationwide from 36 pilot cities (regions), and the scope of tax incentives for individual pensions will also be expanded nationwide; at the same time, based on existing financial products, government bonds will be included in the individual pension product range, and specific pension savings and index funds will be included in the individual pension product catalog.
Multiple banks are taking the lead in laying out, with Guangfa Bank, Citic Bank, and招商 Bank all having issued notices regarding the automatic account opening service for individual pension funds, and some banks like Everbright Bank have launched promotional activities for individual pension reservations.
7. Trump: For me, the stock market is everything.
On December 13, US President-elect Trump rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, and he was named Time magazine's Person of the Year for 2024. After ringing the bell, Trump attributed the recent stock market rise to his defeat of Biden, stating, 'For me, the stock market is everything. It's very important.'
Additionally, according to the Wall Street Journal this week, Trump’s team is considering abolishing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. His advisors reportedly also asked nominees for positions related to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) whether the deposit insurance business could be merged into the Treasury Department.
However, any proposals to abolish the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other agency would require congressional action. The deposit insurance business of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is regarded as almost sacred and inviolable. Any action that could even potentially undermine people's perception of deposit insurance could quickly trigger a chain reaction in the banking industry and may exacerbate customer panic during a crisis.
8. The Bank of Japan may not raise rates next week, causing a huge fluctuation in the yen.
According to foreign media reports this week, the Bank of Japan believes that the cost of waiting on rate hikes is not high, and it may lean towards maintaining rates next week.
Officials believe it is only a matter of time before another rate hike occurs, but five sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's thinking said that the Bank is inclined to maintain rates next week, as decision-makers prefer to take more time to assess overseas risks and clues regarding next year's wage increases. If rates are not raised next week, it would increase the likelihood of a rate hike in January or March next year.
Sources also said that there is no consensus within the Bank of Japan on the final decision, and some committee members still believe that Japan has met the conditions for a rate hike in December. Although many decision-makers do not seem eager to pull the trigger, if the Fed's meeting next week triggers another plunge in the yen, exacerbating inflationary pressures, the Bank of Japan may also favor a rate hike.
9. OpenAI continues to make waves! Apple launches Siri integrated with ChatGPT.
OpenAI released new tools and features throughout the week. At OpenAI's 12-day launch event, OpenAI announced that its digital editing space Canvas, used for assisting writing and programming, is now open to all ChatGPT users, along with a series of new features. OpenAI also launched Sora, releasing an AI model for generating text-based videos.
ChatGPT's Advanced Voice Mode (AVM) has finally launched video and screen sharing capabilities, allowing it to recognize objects seen by the camera or displayed on the device's screen and respond using its advanced voice mode features. Users can chat with ChatGPT using their mobile camera, and the model will 'see' what the user sees.
Additionally, Apple released updates for iPhone, iPad, and Mac software on Wednesday, including Siri integrated with ChatGPT. This is also a significant victory for OpenAI, as it showcases its most important product to millions of iPhone users.
10. Musk becomes the world's first person with a net worth exceeding $400 billion.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk's net worth increased by about $50 billion this Monday to $439.2 billion. At the end of 2022, Musk's wealth had once decreased by more than $200 billion, but after Trump won the election last month, Musk, as his biggest donor, saw his fortune skyrocket immediately.
On Wednesday, SpaceX and its investors agreed to purchase $1.25 billion worth of stock from employees and other insiders. This transaction values the private space exploration company at approximately $350 billion, making SpaceX the most valuable private startup in the world. Tesla's stock price also hit a record high for the first time in three years this week, further increasing Musk's wealth.
11. The latest developments on Hong Kong stamp duty are here!
The Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region passed the (2024 Stamp Duty Bill (Miscellaneous Amendments)) draft, implementing stamp duty exemptions for the transfer of shares or units of real estate investment trusts and for securities dealers conducting business as option dealers, as well as amending the stamp duty collection arrangements under the paperless securities market system implemented in Hong Kong. The amended regulations will be published on December 20. The stamp duty exemption for the transfer of shares or units of REITs and for securities dealers conducting business as option dealers will take effect on December 21.
12. EU ambassadors agreed to impose the 15th round of sanctions on Russia.
According to foreign media reports, Hungary, the rotating presidency of the EU, stated that EU ambassadors agreed on Wednesday to impose the 15th round of sanctions on Russia due to its military actions against Ukraine. The country's president posted on social media platform 'X' that these sanctions will restrict the activities of third-country vessels operating in support of Russia's actions against Ukraine, while the EU will add more individuals and entities to the sanctions list. The sanctions plan is expected to be formally approved at the EU foreign ministers' meeting next Monday.
13. Nvidia is under investigation for suspected violations of antitrust laws.
Recently, due to Nvidia's suspected violations of antitrust laws, the State Administration for Market Regulation has legally initiated an investigation into Nvidia. Nvidia responded by stating that it is happy to answer any questions regulators have about its business. There are market rumors that Nvidia has cut supply to China, which the company denied, stating that China is an important market, and it will continue to provide high-quality services to Chinese customers.
Additionally, informed sources revealed that Nvidia will increase hiring in China to enhance its capabilities in researching new autonomous driving technologies. By the end of this year, Nvidia's total number of employees in China is expected to increase from about 3,000 at the beginning of 2024 to about 4,000, with an addition of about 200 employees in the Beijing area to strengthen autonomous driving research.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data