After the sharp spike in Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday, we directly experienced a second test. Bitcoin's lowest retracement was around 94,200, and Ethereum was around 3,510. As mentioned yesterday, the area around 3,500 for Ethereum is already a very good low-buy zone. For those who made profits at lower levels or who haven't entered yet and want to position again for ETH's upgrade speculation next year, 3,500 is completely a good entry point. In a bull market, sharp declines are followed by slow increases. Every sharp decline is a great opportunity to build positions again. The key is human panic or greed, always thinking about buying lower. However, bottom fishing is always something that the main players do. We just need to follow the established plan.
To participate in this market, you must have a plan and execute it rationally according to your plan, rather than always thinking about going all-in for a big win. This often backfires. Actually, gaining significant returns through luck once will only lead you to develop a gambling mentality, and ultimately you will give it back to the market! When the market is unstable, it's recommended not to touch highly volatile altcoins or high-leverage contracts. If you participate, just play with ETH, SOL, BNB, and wait for the market to restart. We can ride the wave of altcoin recovery when the time comes. In the current phase, focus on defense, stay alive, protect your principal, and the next waves of market movements will be related to you!
Navigating a bull market requires a planned trading approach. I have been telling everyone to control positions, and achieving zero cost is not just talk. After formulating a trading strategy, what you need to do is to execute it strictly. Your returns in this bull market won’t be bad.
1: The best strategy in a bull market is to achieve zero cost. What does zero cost mean? For example, if you entered near comp71 earlier, with a peak of 144, if you sold all your position when it was at 140, everything left is profit. This is called zero cost.
During these two days of adjustment, you are completely unfazed; it doesn’t hurt you and you won’t feel anxious or make mistakes in your operations. Simply put, if it goes up, you still have profit in the position, everyone is happy. If it goes down, you are not anxious and haven’t hurt your principal; this is the advantage of zero cost.
2: Don't sell all your quality altcoins. Low-priced assets won't give you a second chance to re-enter except for black swan events.
For example, our previous 1.3 FET, 35 DASH, 115 PEPE, and 11 LPT. Unless there's a significant negative event, it's hard to see such low prices again. If you sold everything last week, that's a pity. As long as your assets are decent, taking off in the current bull market is just a matter of time. Selling at the peak is the most uncomfortable situation in a bull market. To avoid selling at the peak, you should keep some base positions and aim for zero cost holding. Learn to sell in batches and learn to keep positions. It sounds simple, but I have strictly followed this trading system for three years. It’s not hard to execute; the hard part is the execution.
No one has infinite bullets. Doubling your position to chase the next hot spot requires reasonable planning to go further.
3: When clearing positions, always clear half first before clearing everything, rather than selling everything at once. No one in the market can pinpoint the exact top or bottom. Refer to the above two points; when to sell everything, I think you will have the answer in your heart!
In the crypto world, you need to know how to sell to reap the rewards. Selling at the top is crucial in a bull market. Once a trend is established, no matter where you buy, the rise is just a matter of time. There are many signals for the top, such as frequent trending on hot searches, or when the altcoin speculation index reaches a new high or historical high. If you reference these data to sell, you may not sell at the highest point, but looking back, it is likely to be a peak.
The hard part is execution. You have to take action to navigate the entire bull market!
Macro data
This week is crucial on the macroeconomic front, with several key inflation data about to be released, which will affect the expectations for the next interest rate cut.
Data released at 9:30 on Wednesday includes: CPI
Data to be released at 9:30 on Thursday: PPI
Tonight's CPI data release is undoubtedly the market's focus, and many friends have already started speculating on how Bitcoin will react. Personally, I am still quite optimistic, and the logic remains the same as last Friday's non-farm payroll data. Currently, inflation is expected to rise. Even if the inflation data slightly increases, it will not affect the established path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December. A continuous 72-hour decline is also rare in history, so the possibility of a short-term rebound remains high. Just like a bowstring that has been pulled tight, it will inevitably be accompanied by a strong rebound.
This month has both favorable and unfavorable factors. Tonight's CPI, whether MSTR will be included in QQQ, FASB taking effect, the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, the Japanese monetary policy meeting, and Christmas in January 2025. Trump is set to take office, and news came out yesterday that Trump hopes to push BTC to $150,000 early in his term. So, can ETH take some altcoins along for a ride?
And the expectations of policy easing are favorable, while on the downside, we pay attention to interest rate cuts and economic conditions. However, the next monetary policy meeting is on January 29, and the official assumption of office is on January 20.
After the significant drop on December 9, we are gradually recovering some. The previously soaring SOL, DOGE, and PEPE are all opportunities for limit orders. Market speculation is dynamic; we need to have a keen sense of the market and keep up with the changes!
