Excellent narrative bottom explosion trading logic

1. How to choose the target

Even some excellent narratives that exceed a market cap of 50M or even 100M in the first wave of explosion often experience a deep correction of about 70-80%, such as $MOODENG, $AI16Z, $BAN, and $LUCE, which later stabilized at a market cap of 100M+. These MEME coins all had moments of deep correction after the first wave of explosion.

This is partly a natural result of the rise and fall of emotions (one can look at the K-line trend of $SLERF when it first launched at the beginning of the year; at that time, no one could have pre-positioned for $SLERF, and that K-line is the classic natural K-line of pure retail PVP), and on the other hand, it is also because the market makers need to offload their profits through significant corrections, allowing more people to have the opportunity to enter, raising the average cost for everyone in order to prepare for the next explosion. Therefore, to make money from this logic, one needs to first judge whether this narrative has persistence and the possibility of a second explosion.

Judging whether a narrative will have a second explosion is also something that requires experience. Since it sometimes relates to the market maker's operating logic behind it, we can only try to improve the win rate as much as possible, rather than achieving a 100% victory rate. Generally speaking, I feel that narratives that are likely to have a second explosion will have one or several of the following characteristics:

1. A community with a strong and unique culture, not limited to the Chinese-speaking world (for example, $NEIRO, $ACT, $ELIZA)

2. The concept itself is related to a significant event that is certain to happen in the future (for example, $BAN, $LUCE)

3. Has certain technological fundamental attributes, will continue to grow, and benefit from the explosion of related sectors: xntm566 (for example, $GOAL, $RIF)

The following narratives have a higher possibility of experiencing a wave:

1. The concept itself is related to an event that has already occurred, and the probability of subsequent events is low (because the event has already happened, and people's attention will slowly shift to new events)

2. Celebrities promoting, such as Musk concepts, Trump concepts, Vitalik concepts, CZ concepts (celebrities will continuously generate new concepts through their posts, attention will be dispersed, and meme coins based on celebrity concepts are generally temporarily generated + wild market makers enter; you may simultaneously see a large number of similarly named coins, and after the first wave, the market makers may just run away to play with new concepts)

3. Non-leading narratives in similar narrative concepts (after one wave of explosion + correction, funds are more inclined to enter leading coins rather than secondary, tertiary, or quaternary ones)