A verdade sobre o investimento em criptografia: minha experiência e conselhos
Como alguém que está no espaço criptográfico há mais de uma década, muitas vezes encontro amigos me perguntando sobre como investir em Bitcoin, Ethereum e outras criptomoedas. Especialmente à medida que o mercado aquece e o Bitcoin se aproxima dos 100.000 dólares, dar conselhos torna-se mais complicado, especialmente quando a pessoa do outro lado do espectro é um investidor principiante com pouca experiência. Hoje, gostaria de compartilhar algumas experiências adquiridas em muitos anos de observação e prática, na esperança de inspirar você.
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Você deve assumir a responsabilidade por todas as ações que realizar
Não importa quanta experiência eu tenha, isso não significa que posso prever com precisão o desenvolvimento futuro do mercado. A realidade é que ninguém consegue ter uma visão completa do mercado de criptografia. Se alguém afirma “sabe tudo”, provavelmente está mentindo. Portanto, meu primeiro conselho é: certifique-se de que cada decisão de investimento que você tomar seja baseada em seu próprio julgamento e em sua disposição de assumir responsabilidades.
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Market cycles: understand your position
We have now entered the third year of this bull market cycle. Since the bottom in November 2022, Bitcoin has risen over 6 times, Ethereum has risen 4 times, and Solana has astonishingly increased by 30 times. This explosive growth naturally attracts a lot of attention, but remember, the more attention that floods in, the greater the risks in the market.
In simple terms, the best entry time is often when no one is paying attention, rather than when the market is hot and everyone is rushing in. However, if you have already missed the best timing and still want to enter the market, what should you do?
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Entry suggestion: stable allocation and risk management
For new investors, my personal advice is to keep a simple strategy. For example, you can allocate 50% to Bitcoin, 25% to Ethereum, and 25% to Solana. While this combination may not be perfect, it at least maintains a certain level of stability amidst market fluctuations. If you want to try other altcoins, be sure to keep this portion of funds within 10% of your total investment, and make learning part of your investment.
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Reasonably set an exit plan
From the current price perspective, I suggest you set clear profit-taking points. For example, when your investment doubles, consider taking out your principal so that even if the market reverses, your losses will be minimized. If your funds triple, you can choose to cash out completely or take out twice the profit while leaving the original principal to continue risking. But be sure to recognize that the drop in a bear market can be staggering.
Exiting during a bull market is often more difficult than selling during a bear market. You may regret 'selling too early,' but I can assure you that in the future, you will be grateful for your rational decision at the time.
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Beware of the traps of market sentiment
When the market rises, investors often fall into the emotion of 'fear of missing out' (FOMO). If you take profits at a peak and can't resist re-entering, the sudden risk of market collapse can catch you off guard. Worse, you might find that the taxes on realized gains exceed the value of your remaining assets. This situation is not uncommon in the crypto market.
Every sale of a crypto asset is a taxable event. Even exchanging cryptocurrencies for other tokens is considered taxable behavior. Therefore, after making a profit, I tend to transfer funds into low-risk principal-protected accounts in the traditional financial system, such as a 12 to 18-month deposit plan, rather than keeping them in crypto stablecoin accounts. Only when the market cools off and the hype dissipates do I look for investment opportunities again.
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The frenzy of the bull market and the fantasy of 'super cycles'
Every time a bull market arrives, people always find various reasons to prove that this time it will soar to the sky, and that there won't even be a bear market. But history has repeatedly shown that 'super cycles' are nothing but collective delusions.
Any asset in the market that grows 100 times will almost invariably experience an 80%-90% deep pullback. Taking Solana as an example, even if it rises to $800 during this cycle, it may still fall back to the range of $80-$160 in the future. If you buy in at $240 and hold long-term, you will likely face paper losses in a bear market. This may be hard to accept, but after experiencing a few cycles, you will understand: the crazy growth in a bull market always lays the groundwork for deep pullbacks in a bear market.
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Multiples thinking vs. dollar thinking
New investors often tend to think in dollars rather than multiples or percentages. For example, if I say 'Solana might rise to $1000,' they will feel that the increase is 'only $760,' without realizing that it is merely a 4-fold increase. However, an increase from $8 to $240 is a 30-fold increase. This cognitive bias may lead them to have an incomplete understanding of risk and return.
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Summary: Education and patience are key
The charm of the crypto market lies in its high volatility, which is also its danger. As an experienced investor, my goal is not to tell you what to buy or sell, but to help you view this market with a more rational and clear-headed attitude. Careful planning, reasonable allocation, and learning to grow are the keys to long-term success.
Finally, remember that every investment decision is your own adventure. Whether successful or not, you are worth being responsible for it and learning from it. May you find your bright future in this turbulent and opportunity-filled market.
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