Next year might be a year of both interest rate cuts and hikes
Understanding the various tariffs imposed after taking office, if accompanied by interest rate cuts, inflation will only rise higher
The solution is to pause interest rate cuts and start increasing rates, but this is obviously contrary to the understanding
Then the 'cake' might be used as a tool to inflate the bubble further and transfer the risk globally
Currently, more and more people are curious about the 'cake', which essentially belongs to a form of good news, combined with the liquidity of ETFs, making the threshold for participation lower and lower
Short-term corrections will only belong to short cycles; before any new financial system is formed, it must be attractive to people with rising values and enticing them, along with a grand narrative structure. When the Americans restart interest rate hikes, it will be the beginning of the collapse, and after the collapse, there will be a lot to rebuild
Capitalists will only become richer, because they can afford the 90,000 'cake' and also receive information on the impending risk
The indicators of extreme greed remain high, and the 'cake' needs a correction to cool down the market. Currently, I am more optimistic about several points: 880, 850, and going deeper to 760. After this, if someone says the 'cake' will have a 100% increase, I would believe it. But belief aside, the way to trade is not just to buy a big 'cake' worth 80,000 and then play dead
At this position, caution is required; don’t chase high prices prematurely unless it’s cash. I will choose to continue waiting, and the result of missing out will only mean avoiding losses
Many people are experiencing FOMO, thinking there are few opportunities in life. With such a large opportunity, the 28 law of the market still exists, and in the cryptocurrency world, it’s the 0.5 and 9.5 law. The ones who earn are always in the minority, because data doesn’t lie; trading is an anti-human process. Recently, the 'cake' has been rising to attract people, with various news reports about how much profit was made from early actions. Many people think, 'If I jump in, I can do it too'
This is all hindsight bias; don’t be blinded by it. Personally, I tend to see the 'cake' as a value-added tool, and getting a fixed 20% to 30% return each month is already very good
This is hard to achieve in other markets. Often, many people have grand visions when they have enough bullets, but when they run out, they start to feel that a 20% to 30% return a month isn’t bad after all. This itself is a significant problem.