Bitcoin returns holders in an unprecedented way, as BTC's price action distances itself from $100,000 for the second consecutive week by just inches.
Bitcoin has been eyeing the $100,000 mark since December, as the sunset signifies a unique month.
* Volatility below historical highs has traders guessing when the magical six-figure price tag will appear for Bitcoin (BTC).
* November 2024 set a record for the largest dollar gain in Bitcoin's single-month candle.
* Funding rates show a lack of overheated market conditions — a key factor supporting further increases.
* Before the Federal Reserve's key interest rate decision, U.S. employment data had a fruitful week.
* On-chain profit trends guide a classic parabolic bull market atmosphere through the rare SOPR 'golden cross'.
Bitcoin works on a 'bullish flag' below $100,000.
Following the verification of BTC's key price breakout in November, Bitcoin avoided lightning volatility at weekly close.
According to Cointelegraph Markets Pro data, on December 2, BTC/USD was still hovering around $95,000, continuing to circle below the watershed level of $100,000 that many consider.
Considering the recent BTC price trends, trader and analyst Rekt Capital revealed a successful retest of support.
“After successfully retesting ~$91,000 (red) as support, Bitcoin rebounded +7% upwards,” they wrote in a recent post on X.
“In the short term, it’s worth paying attention to how price action continues to evolve in this potential bull market marking structure.”
Rekt Capital added that a daily close above $97,450 'could trigger additional trend continuation to challenge $100,000 again.
On the downside, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, noted that current support is at $95,000 and $90,000.
“A short-term retest of support is possible,” trader Kevin Svenson examined part of the 4-hour time frame in his X post.
“Overall, despite the short term, my bias is bullish.”
The accompanying chart shows $93,500 as a potential next support retest area.
Monthly BTC price performance: 'A new ballgame'
Bitcoin's price may not have reached $100,000 yet, but BTC's price action quietly made history over the weekend.
BTC/USD closed November's monthly candle at $96,400, marking the largest single-month dollar gain ever.
“This is a new ballgame,” wrote the optimistic response of Cory Klippsten, CEO of investment platform Swan Bitcoin.
The candle stands out on the monthly chart in an unprecedented manner, but in percentage terms, it’s not unusual.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that November's upward potential was 37%, which cannot even compare to Bitcoin's most successful month in November this year.
For Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, this balance should correct itself soon.
“In every cycle, we get 4-7 months of crazy Bitcoin price discovery returns. We just held the first one in November!”
“The next few months will have crazy long opportunities. The normal mindset is not ready yet.”
Edwards continued that breaking the $100,000 mark will inject a new wave of parabolic behavior into prices.
“Real FOMO starts above $100. Once the epic sell wall collapses, we enter a supply vacuum, adopting a new retail-driven infinite bid. Do the math,” he wrote.
Previously, Edwards suggested that Bitcoin should replicate gold after breaking through key resistance levels this year.
Funding rates remain stable.
Market stability is likely allowing people the opportunity to adapt to six-figure Bitcoin.
As trader Jelle pointed out this week, although prices are trading near historical highs, funding rates across exchanges remain manageable.
“Many people are talking about the need for a bigger correction and the market being unhealthy. Meanwhile, with the price near baseline funding, it's hovering around $95,000,” he told his X followers.
For weeks, funding has shown this relaxed trend, even as BTC/USD continues to set records.
“Considering the number of people recently calling it a 'top signal', Bitcoin's funding rates remain very low...” Analysis account Bitcoindata21 responded to this viewpoint on X last week.
Bitcoindata21 compared the current Bitcoin bull market with that of 2021, when funding rates were multiples higher. Even in March 2024, when BTC/USD hit the historical high of $73,800, financing volumes increased significantly.
U.S. employment data is in the spotlight.
As the countdown to the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision begins, the labor market dominates this week's U.S. macroeconomic data release.
After job vacancies on December 3, unemployment claims will be released two days later, followed by the unemployment report.
“This is an important week for the labor market,” said the trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, discussing the macro diary.
Kobeissi noted that these data constitute 'the last week's labor market data before the December 18 Federal Reserve meeting.'
On December 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will decide whether to change the benchmark interest rate. As Cointelegraph continues to report, overall bets still lean towards a new drop of 0.25%, but the market is more uncertain than in previous months.
The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 67% chance of a 0.25% rate cut.
“If Bitcoin does not break through before the FOMC meeting on December 18, a 25 basis point cut would not only be an early Christmas gift but could also become a catalyst for pushing $BTC above $100,000,” said Alan of Material Indicators.
“On the other hand, any cuts cannot become a catalyst for triggering corrections and BTC's limited-time buyouts.”
Bitcoin's metric golden cross teases 'sharp rise'.
Bitcoin analysis is digging for new signals that support continued upward movement.
This week, the much-watched SOPR is printing its second 'golden cross' of the current bull market.
Crypto Dan, a contributor at on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, emphasized the impact of this event.
“After the golden cross appears, the market usually starts to rise strongly within 2 months at the latest,” he wrote in a CryptoQuant Quicktake blog post on December 2.
“The upcoming rise could be a 'sharp surge in the final stage of the upcycle'.”
SOPR measures whether the token price used in on-chain transactions is higher or lower than the previous transaction, thus indicating on-chain profitability. A golden cross occurs when the 30-day moving average of the indicator exceeds its 365-day moving average.
“As the market enters the later stages of the cycle, the magnitude of the rise is often larger, and the periods of decline/correction are shorter,” the post stated.
If the indicator experiences a sharp rise between the end of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, new inflows and additional funds are expected to enter the market, pushing it to a peak.