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Macro News
1. The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November, released on December 2, recorded 51.5, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from October, remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months. According to the sub-index data of the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, both supply and demand in the manufacturing sector accelerated their expansion. The manufacturing production index and new orders index in November rose to their highest levels since July 2024 and March 2023, respectively. Respondent companies stated that improvements in demand fundamentals and the release of new products supported the growth of new orders.
2. According to foreign media reports, Alphaliner's latest data shows that as of December 2, 2024, the total number of container ships in operation globally was 7,170, with a total operating capacity of 31,236,246 TEU and a total deadweight tonnage of 370,331,763 tons.
3. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of December 2, 2024, the Shanghai export container settlement price index (European route) was 2828.63 points, a decrease of 1.2% compared to the previous period.
4. Central Bank data shows that in November 2024, the People's Bank conducted a total of 764 million yuan in standing lending facility operations with financial institutions, of which overnight was 754 million yuan and 7-day was 10 million yuan. The balance of standing lending facilities at the end of the period was 600 million yuan. The interest rate of standing lending facilities played the role of the upper limit of the interest rate corridor, which is conducive to maintaining the stable operation of money market interest rates. The overnight, 7-day, and 1-month standing lending facility rates were 2.35%, 2.50%, and 2.85%, respectively.
5. Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that next year, the People's Bank of China will continue to adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance and orientation, comprehensively use various monetary policy tools, increase counter-cyclical adjustments, maintain reasonable liquidity, and reduce the comprehensive financing costs for enterprises and residents. The statistical method for monetary supply will be optimized, incorporating personal demand deposits and non-bank payment institution client reserves—two highly liquid financial instruments—into M1 statistics, and strengthening monitoring of M2 and other levels of monetary supply and social liquidity.
6. The People's Bank of China announced that starting from January 2025, the newly revised narrow money (M1) statistical caliber will be adopted. The revised M1 includes: currency in circulation (M0), unit demand deposits, personal demand deposits, and reserves of non-bank payment institutions.
7. Israel and Lebanon again accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement, each conducting small-scale attacks.
Global Futures Market Anomalies
1. Most domestic commodity futures closed lower in the night session, with energy and chemical products showing mixed results; asphalt fell by 1.26%. The black series fluctuated, with iron ore rising by 1.12%. Agricultural products generally fell, with corn down 1.44%, soybean oil down 1.35%, corn starch down 1.02%, soybean meal down 1.01%, and cotton down nearly 1%. Base metals showed mixed results, with Shanghai lead up 1.52%, aluminum oxide up 1.23%, copper up 0.47%, aluminum up 0.25%, zinc down 0.22%, stainless steel down 0.35%, and nickel down 0.99%. Shanghai gold rose 0.04%, while silver fell 0.27%.
2. International oil prices rose slightly, with U.S. oil for January 2025 contracts up 0.25%, priced at $68.17 per barrel. Brent oil for February 2025 contracts rose 0.08%, priced at $71.90 per barrel.
3. International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.72% at $2661.8 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down 0.43% at $30.975 per ounce.
4. London base metals closed mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.16% at $8996.5 per ton, LME zinc down 0.69% at $3081.5 per ton, LME nickel down 0.93% at $15755 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.25% at $2600.5 per ton, LME tin down 1.31% at $28535 per ton, and LME lead up 0.02% at $2073 per ton.
5. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures main contracts closed mixed, with soybean futures down 0.4% at 985.5 cents/bushel; corn futures up 0.06% at 433.25 cents/bushel, and wheat futures down 0.05% at 547.75 cents/bushel.
Black Series Hot News
1. From November 25 to December 1, 2024, the total amount of iron ore arriving at 47 Chinese ports was 24.685 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons compared to the previous period; the total amount arriving at 45 ports was 22.910 million tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons; the total amount arriving at six northern ports was 10.995 million tons, an increase of 716,000 tons.
2. From November 25 to December 1, 2024, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 25.344 million tons, a decrease of 132,000 tons compared to the previous period. Australia shipped 17.742 million tons, an increase of 262,000 tons compared to the previous period, of which the shipment to China was 13.736 million tons, a decrease of 959,000 tons. Brazil shipped 7.602 million tons, a decrease of 394,000 tons. The total global iron ore shipment for this period was 30.791 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons.
3. According to Mysteel, as of the week ending November 29, the inventory of manganese ore at Tianjin Port was 5.27 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons; the inventory at Lianyungang Port was 150,000 tons; and the inventory at Qinzhou Port was 657,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons. The total inventory of manganese ore at the ports was 6.077 million tons, down 126,000 tons from the previous period.
Agricultural Product Hot News
1. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, last week, domestic oil plants' soybean processing volume rebounded, with monitoring showing that as of the week ending November 29, domestic soybean processing volume was 1.89 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 80,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 90,000 tons, down 130,000 tons year-on-year, and down 140,000 tons compared to the average of the previous three years. Since mid-November, domestic soybean oil prices have significantly adjusted, and oil plants' soybean processing profits have turned from positive to negative.
2. According to Mysteel's survey, as of November 28, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports increased by 1.7% week-on-week, with a total inventory of 500,900 tons; as of November 29, 2024, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3,907,200 tons, an increase of 474,500 tons (an increase of 13.82%) compared to the previous week.
3. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of November 27, the national live pig ex-farm price was 16.94 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.89% compared to November 20; the main wholesale market corn price was 2.20 yuan/kg, down 2.65% from November 20; the pig-to-grain price ratio was 7.70, up 3.63% from November 20.
4. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) data shows that from November 1 to 30, 2024, Malaysia's palm oil yield per hectare decreased by 4.66%, extraction rate decreased by 0.13%, and production decreased by 5.30%.
5. According to Wind data, as of December 2, 2024, the national port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.76172 million tons, down from 7.78052 million tons on November 25, a decrease of 18,800 tons.
6. According to foreign media reports, the agricultural consulting firm AgRural stated on Monday that as of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean planting area for the 2024/2025 season reached 91% of the expected total area, up from 86% in the previous week and higher than 85% in the same period last year. AgRural noted in a statement that this is the fastest planting speed since 2018 and pointed out that some areas in Mato Grosso do Sul still need rainfall.
7. According to data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from November 1 to 30 is expected to be 1,115,305 tons, a decrease of 23.1% compared to 1,450,085 tons exported during the same period last month.
8. Consulting agency Celeres stated in a report on Monday that Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/2025 season is expected to reach 170.8 million tons. Celeres stated that the expected bumper harvest will lead to an export volume of 107 million tons.
9. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced data showing that private exporters reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 season.
10. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of the week ending November 28, 2024, the volume of U.S. soybean export inspections was 2,088,361 tons, revised down from 2,117,380 tons the previous week, with the initial value being 2,102,002 tons; the U.S. shipped 952,095 tons of soybeans to China (mainland). The previous week, the U.S. shipped 1,230,717 tons of soybeans to mainland China.
11. According to the National Company for Food Supply (CONAB), under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, as of December 1, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 90.0%, up from 83.3% last week and 83.1% during the same period last year.
12. The monthly report published by the Agriculture Department of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil (IMEA), shows that the expected soybean planting area for the 2024/25 season is 12.6616 million hectares; the expected yield is 57.97 bags/hectare, an increase of 11.15% compared to the 52.16 bags/hectare in the 2023/24 season; the expected production is 44.0417 million tons, an increase of 12.78% compared to the 39.0504 million tons in the 2023/24 season.
Energy and Chemical Hot News
1. According to Longzhong Information, as of December 2, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 17,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons compared to the previous period, a drop of 46.03%. The commodity inventory was 10,000 tons, down 10,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 51.22%. The total social inventory of styrene in Jiangsu, including shipments, pipeline transportation, and truck unloading, was 20,750 tons, with 35,250 tons picked up this week.
2. According to Longzhong Information, Qingdao bonded warehouse showed a decrease, general trade showed a slight increase in inventory, and total inventory showed a slight decrease. Overseas standard rubber arrivals remain low, bonded inventory maintains a decreasing pace; as mixed rubber gradually arrives, the general trade inventory remains high. Facing rising natural rubber prices, downstream enterprises remain cautious, and general trade inventory continues to increase. As of December 1, 2024, the total inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao area, including bonded and general trade, was 422,800 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared to the previous period, a drop of 0.17%. The bonded area inventory was 54,300 tons, a decrease of 1.81%; general trade inventory was 368,500 tons, an increase of 0.08%.
3. OPEC+ sources revealed that OPEC may extend the latest production cut measures until the end of the first quarter of 2025.
Metal Hot News
1. As of December 2, Mysteel's survey data shows that the national lead ingot inventory in major markets was 55,300 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to November 28. The Shanghai market inventory was 6,100 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous period; Guangdong market inventory was 2,300 tons, an increase of 10 tons compared to November 28; Jiangsu market inventory was 13,900 tons, unchanged from the previous period; Tianjin market inventory was 8,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to November 28; Zhejiang market inventory was 25,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons. Recently, lead prices have fluctuated upwards, and social inventories have stopped decreasing.
2. According to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, in accordance with the Futures and Derivatives Law of the People's Republic of China and related regulations of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is steadily advancing the research and development of silicon futures and silicon options, and has formulated the draft for public consultation for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange silicon futures contract, silicon options contract, and the detailed rules for silicon futures and options business.
Praise "期" Talk - Unveiling the Logic of Variety Trading!
1. Glass stabilizes and rebounds, but is demand highly questionable?
Everbright Futures analysis points out that from a macro perspective, in November, many places in China further relaxed housing market policies, for example, first-tier cities canceled the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary housing, and the market still has strong expectations for incremental policies regarding consumption and real estate from important meetings in December. Market sentiment is expected to continue to be positively boosted in the short term, but the transmission of policies to the spot industry chain will still take a long time. From the supply and demand perspective, the industry's production line maintenance progress has significantly slowed down, with some previously ignited production lines now producing finished products, and the white glass production lines being put into production, leading to a slight increase in glass production capacity. In terms of demand, there is still a need for inventory replenishment in the downstream in December, and the year-end rush will continue to support the rigid demand for glass. However, affected by weather and transportation factors, the demand should not be overly optimistic. Therefore, caution is still needed regarding the short-term rebound of glass and the potential upper space.
2. Palm oil remains strong, what will the price trend be like in the future?
Zhonghui Futures analysis points out that from a fundamental perspective, Southeast Asia's palm oil is entering a production reduction season, with both Malaysia's palm oil production and export volume expected to decrease month-on-month in November, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory may continue to decline. Indonesia's chief economic minister stated that the B40 biodiesel project will start on January 1, alleviating market concerns about delays in B40. The expectation for palm oil supply remains tight. However, as palm oil prices continue to rise, major demand countries like India and China can only reduce their purchase volumes and seek alternative oils. Overall, palm oil is likely to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term.
Recent Important Futures Data and Events Overview
1. On December 3, at 4:15, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will give a speech; at 5:30, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a dialogue organized by the Queens Chamber of Commerce; on December 4 at 21:45, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will give a speech; on December 5 at 3:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be interviewed at the DealBook/Summit conference organized by The New York Times; on December 7 at 1:00, 2024 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Harmack will speak on economic prospects. Pay attention to the changes in the hawkish and dovish nature of speeches from important U.S. officials.
2. On December 4 at 21:15, the U.S. will release the November ADP employment figures. Previously, the ADP employment figures for October were reported at 233,000, with expectations for November at 114,000, a significant increase. Better-than-expected ADP data may enhance market optimism regarding non-farm employment data and reduce concerns about the U.S. economy.
3. On December 4, to be determined, the domestic refined oil will start a new round of pricing window.
4. On December 4, to be determined, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association will hold the 2024 Annual Conference of the Photovoltaic Industry. Concurrently, there will be workshops on the development of the photovoltaic supply chain, the development of innovative applications in photovoltaics, and various thematic meetings. Pay attention to the changes in sentiment towards related futures varieties at the conference.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data