Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank/Institutional Perspectives Review
Abroad
1. Deutsche Bank: OPEC+ may postpone its production increase plan for three months.
Deutsche Bank research analysts state that OPEC+ is expected to further postpone its production increase plan for at least three months, providing support for oil prices. The oil production policy meeting originally scheduled for Sunday has been postponed to next Thursday. Analyst Barbara Lambrecht stated, "Scheduling conflicts are believed to be one of the reasons, but there are also speculations about difficulties in formulating a joint production strategy, as has often happened in the past." "However, we suspect this is more about disagreements over individual member countries' quotas rather than an overall strategy." Deutsche Bank expects the alliance to choose to postpone production cuts again; otherwise, the market will face a significant risk of oversupply next year.
2. Société Générale: The Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts lead to a decrease in short-term rates, while tariffs and fiscal deficits push up long-term rates.
Société Générale predicts that by the end of 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise to 4.5%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will fall to 3.5%. The reason is that the Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts will reduce short-term rates but will also stimulate demand for long-term government bonds through economic stimulus and increased fiscal deficits, leading to an increase in long-term yields. Additionally, Trump's tariff plan may push up inflation expectations, and the U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of government bonds to address fiscal deficits, all of which will push up yields.
3. Scotiabank: Canadian economy shows strong signs, suggesting no need for the central bank to cut rates again significantly.
Scotiabank economist Derek Holt believes that although Canadian economic growth is slow, the details in the latest GDP report are much better than the headline figures, suggesting that the Bank of Canada should not make another significant rate cut. Holt stated that, in fact, the data shows that the softness of the Canadian economy is not as severe as previously expected, and after a series of quarterly adjustments, it shows that by the end of the second quarter, the Japanese economy had grown by 1.45% more than previously expected. Most importantly, low inventory accumulation has seriously dragged down growth in the third quarter, partly due to a rebound in consumer spending. Additionally, Holt pointed out that strong income growth coexists with a high savings rate. "There is no indication that the Bank of Canada should consider raising interest rates by 50 basis points in December."
4. Pansen Macro: The European Central Bank will temporarily remain cautiously and slightly lower interest rates.
Pansen macroeconomists Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono wrote in a report that the European Central Bank may not significantly lower interest rates this month but will be prepared for further gradual rate cuts next year. Data released last week showed that inflation in the Eurozone rose in November, which may lead the European Central Bank to cut rates by 25 basis points at the December policy meeting instead of 50 basis points. However, they stated that the bank's relatively moderate rate setters have increasingly persuasive reasons to support further rate cuts, and the bank may cut rates at least three times in the first half of 2025, with deposit rates potentially falling below 2% next year.
Domestic
1. CICC: The A-shares are expected to welcome the 'year-end and early-year market'.
CICC research department managing director and chief domestic strategy analyst Li Qiusuo stated in a recent interview that the two-month 'twist period' of A-shares may be nearing an end, and as the year-end policy important window period approaches, positive factors are expected to help A-shares usher in the 'year-end and early-year market'; at the industry level, it is recommended to layout the booming growth industries from a fundamental perspective while combining a good supply-demand pattern. (China Securities Golden Bull)
2. CICC: The Hang Seng Index at 19,000 points still has support, but external uncertainties restrict the index's upside space.
CICC strategy release report indicates that driven by the warming domestic policy expectations and the retreat of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, the Hong Kong stock market ended the significant pullback of the previous two weeks last week. CICC strategy recently emphasized that the Hang Seng Index around 19,000 points is a key support level, and the market indeed rebounded after touching this position. In the short term, the Hang Seng Index at 19,000 points still has support, but as external uncertainties remain unresolved, the upside space is also limited. Therefore, in the short term, the market at this position is neither up nor down, and can go either way. If domestic policies exceed expectations in the short term, the market may intermittently rise, but from a long-term 'realistic constraints' perspective, it is suggested that investors in this situation can partially take profits and shift towards structure. However, considering the overly strong policy expectations under 'realistic constraints' is not realistic. 'Gradually layout on the dim left side, and moderately take profits on the exuberant right side' shifting towards structure remains an effective strategy.
3. CITIC Securities: The bull market in 2025 is expected to gradually transition to a 'fundamental bull', and in the short term, we are optimistic about the year-end market.
CITIC Securities research believes that the Chinese stock market's 'confidence reassessment bull' remains optimistic in the medium term, and it is expected that as policies gradually intensify and take effect, the bull market in 2025 may transition from a 'liquidity bull' to a 'fundamental bull'. In the short term, we first look forward to the year-end and early-year year-end market, inclined to overweight several clues: asset reassessment: benefiting from finance, real estate, and debt reduction; new quality productivity elastic assets benefiting from fiscal 'dual重' and 'two new' categories, service consumption and potential beneficial supply-side reform deepening themes, etc.
4. CITIC Securities: Optimistic about the recovery opportunities in the global enterprise IT hardware sector in 2025.
CITIC Securities research report indicates an optimistic outlook for the recovery opportunities in the global enterprise IT hardware sector in 2025. It is expected that the main factors suppressing global enterprise IT hardware spending in 2024 are likely to improve significantly in 2025. Positive macro expectations, the elimination of policy uncertainties after the U.S. elections, and the opening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut channel will help overall IT spending in Europe and the United States trend towards easing. At the same time, the end of Windows 10 EOL, the introduction of the next-generation server CPU platform, and the end of inventory reduction for enterprise network equipment will also support sales and structure. Coupled with further downward adjustments in market expectations after the third-quarter report, we are optimistic about investment opportunities in the U.S. enterprise IT hardware sector in 2025, and we recommend focusing on the following in order of priority: commercial PCs, AI servers, general servers, network equipment, and enterprise storage sectors.
5. CITIC Securities: This special bond for SOEs has a distinct policy attribute and may signal that central enterprises are beginning to publicly assume the function of stabilizing growth.
CITIC Securities research report states that this special bond for SOEs has a distinct policy attribute and may signal that central enterprises are beginning to publicly assume the function of stabilizing growth, marking a significant innovation in the policy tools for stabilizing growth in our country. Central enterprises have many high-yield projects, and leveraging SOEs is unlikely to create hidden debt issues, which helps to conform to the trend of new and old kinetic energy conversion and alleviate the drag on the efficiency of stabilizing growth caused by the scarcity of local quality projects. Simple calculations indicate that the potential scale of the special bonds for central enterprises that can be launched may be 4.1 trillion yuan. In terms of offsetting the impact of debt reduction on urban investment interest-bearing debt, it is expected to issue more than 1 trillion yuan in the coming year, with manufacturing investment, industrial added value, and actual GDP growth being the main benefiting indicators, but the improvement of the economic operating temperature still requires the collaboration of demand-side policies.
6. Guotai Junan: Domestic expectations are expected to improve by year-end, and the Hong Kong stock allocation strategy returns to internal certainty.
Guotai Junan points out that the domestic policy direction in December is clear, and the market risk appetite is expected to improve, with expectations for improvements at the molecular level. External disturbances still revolve around long-term uncertainties. The domestic expectations are expected to improve by year-end, and the Hong Kong stock allocation strategy returns to internal certainty. With the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields + stabilization of the RMB exchange rate at year-end, the Hong Kong stock market's year-end trend is expected to unfold. It is recommended to allocate high-dividend + domestic demand-related varieties as the base, while also paying attention to rebound opportunities in quality growth stocks represented by the Hang Seng Technology Index: 1) Focus on elastic opportunities: Hong Kong internet leaders and quality growth stocks with EPS improvements, benefiting from domestic policy support, enhanced controllability, and resilient profits or economic recovery: including pharmaceuticals/electronics/automobiles/new energy; 2) Benefiting from domestic demand support varieties: affordable consumption/home appliances; 3) In the exchange rate stabilization phase, recommending high-dividend base, preferentially selecting varieties with stable molecular endpoints, while considering the benefits of central SOE mergers and acquisitions and debt reduction policies, focusing on: finance/energy/telecommunications/materials/utilities, etc.
7. Huatai Securities: This round of 'year-end market' may have a certain foundation, but its sustainability faces challenges.
Huatai Securities research believes that from the perspectives of fundamentals, liquidity, and policy expectations, this round of 'year-end market' may have a certain foundation: 1) Fundamentals: PMI has risen for three consecutive months and is stronger than seasonal expectations, and the medium observation index tracked by Huatai Securities has also improved month-on-month; 2) Liquidity: The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have retreated; premium income on insurance liabilities has rebounded year-on-year since the beginning of the year, and insurance capital and ETFs may provide incremental funds; 3) Policy expectations have warmed up before the Central Economic Work Conference. However, sustainability faces challenges: 1) The intensity and effectiveness of policies remain to be verified, and the transmission of broad fiscal expansion to the credit cycle still takes time; 2) Before Trump officially takes office, potential negative impacts of tariff policies may be repeatedly traded; 3) The sustainability of thematic profit-making effects and the warming of trading funds remains to be further observed.
8. Huatai Securities: Bank stock selection will gradually return to fundamental logic, enhancing the premium space of quality bank valuations.
Huatai Securities points out that a series of policies have recently been implemented to promote economic stabilization and improvement. The interest rates on non-bank interbank demand deposits have been lowered, which helps to improve the cost of bank liabilities, offset the pressure of interest margin decline, and solidify the foundation for performance stabilization. In the short term, the central government is intensifying support for debt reduction, and some key banking areas for debt reduction will benefit from expected improvements, driving valuation recovery. In the medium to long term, the economy is steadily recovering, risk appetite is improving, and bank stock selection will gradually return to fundamental logic, enhancing the premium space of quality bank valuations. Stock recommendations: 1) Short-term recommendations for stocks benefiting from debt reduction logic and expected improvement in asset quality; 2) Medium to long-term recommendations for high-quality regional banks; 3) The value of stable dividend targets is still worth paying attention to.
9. Caixin Securities: A recovery in fundamentals will provide upward momentum for the market.
From the press conference of 'one bank, one bureau, and one meeting' on September 24 to the end of November, the A-share market has reversed the one-sided downward trend since May, and market confidence has been significantly restored, with investor expectations effectively boosted. Recently, Yuan Chuang, the general manager of the Caixin Securities Research and Development Center, said in an interview that all types of investors should have confidence in the future trend of A-shares and also have a bit more patience. The recovery of fundamentals will provide upward momentum for the market. Yuan Chuang believes that in the long term, the strength of the construction of institutional investors in our country is increasing, and the trading proportion of institutional investors in the market will continue to rise in the future, and the process of institutionalization of A-shares will continue to advance. Therefore, the future institutional-led market style will be the norm. At the same time, various institutions need to continuously enhance their professional capabilities, adhere to fundamental research and value investing, long-term investing directions, enhance the market's recognition and credibility, create continuous value for investors, become the ballast for the steady operation of our capital market, and contribute to the development of the real economy and the appreciation of residents' wealth. (China Securities Journal)
10. Haitong Strategy: There are three conditions for the year-end market to start, and close attention should be paid to incremental policies and fundamental trends.
Haitong Strategy release report states that during the year-end and early-year performance window, important meeting window, and multiple institutional games, the year-end market often occurs, but the starting time and magnitude of increase vary greatly. The conditions for the year-end market to start are fundamental improvement/liquidity easing/policy catalysis, and the elasticity of the market depends on the strength of driving factors and the previous market environment. Close attention should be paid to incremental policies and fundamental trends at present, and structurally, the technology manufacturing and mid-to-high-end manufacturing with superior fundamentals are the mid-term focus.
The article is reposted from: Jin Shi Data