The Federal Reserve has again announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.5%~4.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the continued advancement of this round of easing policy. Notably, this is the second rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, with the last cut occurring on September 18, when the Fed lowered rates by 50 basis points, officially initiating this rate cut cycle.
This rate cut is an important benefit for the market, especially in the current environment of economic uncertainty, as low rates can alleviate borrowing cost pressures for businesses and consumers, thereby stimulating economic activity. This is also a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin. As fiat currency yields decline, more investors may choose to shift their funds towards high-risk, high-reward assets, further highlighting Bitcoin's role as 'digital gold'. The Federal Reserve's ongoing easing policy may bring more incremental funds into the crypto market. In the coming period, market expectations for increased liquidity from the rate cut are likely to further support Bitcoin's upward trend.
Bitcoin's price briefly surged to $76,849.99, setting a new record high. The current quote is $75,966, with a 24-hour increase of 1.19%. Recent price fluctuations have been significant, and market sentiment is quite high. Notably, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF achieved its largest single-day inflow since its launch on November 7, with funds reaching $1.11692 billion, indicating strong demand from institutional investors for Bitcoin. This is not only a positive market signal but also suggests that more and more institutions view Bitcoin as a long-term potential asset allocation tool.
This massive influx of funds has undoubtedly intensified bullish sentiment in the market. As capital continues to flow in, the price of Bitcoin is likely to continue fluctuating at high levels, potentially even challenging higher price points. Historical data shows that the days with the highest inflows for the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF were October 30, with $872 million, March 12, with $849 million, and March 5, with $788 million. This trend indicates that investor enthusiasm for Bitcoin is unabated. The continued increase in institutional investment not only injects ample liquidity into the Bitcoin market but also solidifies its position as 'digital gold'. In the face of increasing global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin is becoming a preferred asset for risk-averse allocations, and more institutions are expected to increase their Bitcoin holdings in the future.
MicroStrategy's investment in Bitcoin is undoubtedly a classic case that motivates the market. As Bitcoin's price breaks through $76,000, the company's unrealized gains have reached approximately $9.28 billion, a substantial return. As of September 19, 2024, MicroStrategy holds a total of 252,220 Bitcoins, with a total cost of about $9.9 billion and an average purchase price of $39,266. In simple terms, Bitcoin's price is now nearly twice the average purchase price for MicroStrategy, with an astonishing investment return rate of 93.7%.
MicroStrategy's recent success undoubtedly sends an important signal to the market: as global macroeconomic uncertainty increases and the risk of dollar depreciation rises, Bitcoin is increasingly recognized by more institutions as a tool for combating inflation and preserving capital. MicroStrategy's CEO Michael Saylor's unwavering confidence in Bitcoin not only provides a reference for other companies but may also encourage more companies to follow suit. From a market trend perspective, Bitcoin's long-term potential remains optimistic, particularly given the influx of institutions and the strengthening expectations for ETF approvals. MicroStrategy's unrealized gains set an example for investors, proving that Bitcoin's asset value can indeed provide long-term returns. For investors looking to position in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy's success will bring greater confidence.
CoinShares' latest report points out that if the Trump administration passes the (Bitcoin Bill), it will bring significant benefits to the cryptocurrency industry. The core of this proposal is to establish Bitcoin as a 'strategic reserve asset' and to recommend that the US government acquire 5% of Bitcoin's total supply. Currently, the total supply cap for Bitcoin is 21 million coins, so 5% is approximately 1.05 million coins. If this proposal comes to fruition, the US government would hold over 1 million Bitcoins, undoubtedly greatly enhancing Bitcoin's legitimacy and status.
In the current international financial environment, if the United States takes the lead in incorporating Bitcoin into its national reserves, it will further solidify its financial leadership position. This is similar to the logic of gold reserves, where Bitcoin is expected to become a tool for hedging against inflation. At the same time, the Trump administration's attitude towards the SEC is also a highlight. Trump has consistently criticized current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and has indicated that if re-elected, he will adjust the leadership team to achieve more open cryptocurrency regulatory policies. Compared to the conservative stance of the current administration, this change will undoubtedly benefit the overall development of the crypto market. From a market perspective, if the (Bitcoin Bill) is smoothly passed, it will inevitably have a huge impact on Bitcoin prices. Both institutional and retail investors will gain increased confidence in Bitcoin upon seeing government recognition. Bitcoin may usher in a new wave of price increases, and with the US leading the way, other countries may follow suit. The potential impact of this series of policies may bring Bitcoin into a new era as 'digital gold'.
The US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of 29,300 coins yesterday, valued at $79.7 million.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 18,000 coins yesterday, valued at $1.359 billion.
BTC: From yesterday's daily chart, Bitcoin closed with a spinning top, indicating that bullish momentum is slightly weakening in the short term, but the overall trend remains upward. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's 5-day and 10-day moving averages are still rising, indicating that market bullish sentiment has not faded, and prices are expected to continue oscillating upwards along the moving averages. Combined with the current low position of the long-short ratio, this indicates that market bullish positions are relatively concentrated, giving major funds significant control.
Additionally, ETF inflows have reached a historic high, indicating strong demand from institutional investors for Bitcoin, while also reflecting market confidence in future price increases. Coupled with macro-positive factors such as interest rate cuts, even if there is a slight pullback in the short term, it is a normal digestion of previous gains. Overall, the medium to long-term direction for Bitcoin remains optimistic.
ETH: Ethereum closed with a bullish candle yesterday, and the RSI indicator showed signs of overbought conditions. A slight pullback may occur in the short term, but it will not affect the overall trend, and it is highly likely to continue moving upwards.
Altcoins: From the trend of altcoins, many are still at relatively low levels, making it a good time to gradually position. Although we have not yet entered the so-called 'altcoin season', and funds have not yet surged to the craziest stage, patiently waiting could lead to greater opportunities. With Bitcoin's price fluctuations, many altcoins are expected to follow suit, and we may soon see an upward trend. For players optimistic about the future of altcoins, this stage is a good time to consider appropriate positioning.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 75 (Greed)#美联储利率决议来袭
