Remind everyone, the results of tomorrow's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting will be announced

I still expect a 25 basis point rate cut

Many analysts say that Trump’s presidency and the trade war will increase inflation levels, and the Fed will pause interest rate hikes, or even raise rates when the data looks bad.

However, I don’t think so. Trump has always been a fan and supporter of fossil fuels, and his presidency will definitely support oil extraction just like the previous term; therefore, unless other extreme situations occur (a major war in the Middle East, complete cut-off of European oil supplies), energy prices will decline during Trump's term.

The United States is a nation on wheels, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is less than 9%; transportation costs and logistics costs will determine the prices of the vast majority of goods.

So, there may not necessarily be inflation, and interest rates may not rise. Moreover, based on Trump's character, in order to enhance the prosperity of his term's economy, he might pressure the Fed to cut rates in a disruptive manner.

Therefore, at this point, I would not bet on the upward movement of the yield curve.