The 60th presidential election in the United States has officially begun, with the voting focus concentrated in seven swing states, whose election results will have a decisive impact on the final outcome of the election. Voting in New Hampshire started at midnight Eastern Time (1 PM Beijing Time), marking the beginning of the election finale. Although the early voting results have already been largely determined, the most noteworthy are still the following seven key states: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. Based on the closing times of voting in these states, it is expected that as long as there are no particularly tight votes, the final outcome can be basically determined around noon tomorrow.
Current polls show that Vice President Harris has a slight advantage in polling. On several major polling sites, such as Forbes/HarrisX and NPR/PBS/Marist, Harris generally leads Trump. However, in the Atlas Intel poll, Trump has overtaken Harris, while the TIPP poll results show a tie between the two. It is worth mentioning that the predictive market's trend gives a different signal; currently, on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, Trump's winning odds lead over Harris. Particularly on Polymarket, Trump's winning odds have reached 61.1%, whereas Harris's odds are only 39%, almost showing a 64:36 situation. This reflects that in the predictive market, large bets determine the market direction and indicates that Trump's supporters are more steadfast. In contrast, the credibility of polls can sometimes be affected by various factors, so I personally believe that Trump holds a certain advantage in the current situation.
Potential impact of Trump's victory on the market
If Trump wins, the crypto market is expected to see a strong rise. First, Bitcoin may break through the $80,000 mark in the short term, further attracting a large amount of funds into the crypto market. During Trump's tenure, he has repeatedly expressed support for cryptocurrencies and promised to include Bitcoin in the national strategic reserves, even planning to fire the current SEC chairman to increase support for the crypto market. If these policies are implemented, Bitcoin's price is expected to experience a new round of explosive growth by 2025, and by the end of the year, the price may even surpass $200,000.
In terms of altcoins, especially $DOGE, $SOL, and $XRP, these three coins will become the biggest beneficiaries if Trump is elected. The biggest driving force behind $DOGE comes from Musk, and as Musk's 'private currency', $DOGE is expected to become the world's largest political meme, combined with Musk's 'streamlined government' plan, becoming a cultural phenomenon. $SOL and $XRP may benefit from changes in SEC policies, and after Trump takes office, there may be a loosening of crypto regulations, especially with the replacement of the SEC chairman, which may lead to more crypto ETF approvals, further driving up the prices of these two assets.
In addition to these well-known currencies, the entire crypto market may also welcome a large-scale rise, especially the leading coins in various sectors are expected to generally rise over 10 times in market value. It can be said that as long as Trump takes office, the crypto market will enter a period of prosperity.
Potential impact of Trump's defeat on the market
If Harris wins, the market may face some pullback in the short term. After all, the current coin price already includes part of the premium from Trump's victory, and this portion of funds may withdraw from the market. However, I expect this pullback will not be too severe, and at least the support around $50,000 still exists. Although Harris's attitude towards the crypto market after taking office is not as aggressive as Trump's, she will not excessively suppress the crypto industry. There were rumors that Harris would consider replacing the current SEC chairman, and although she did not particularly focus on the crypto industry's votes during the election process, with the continuous growth of the crypto industry, she may adopt some more moderate policies to win the support of this group.
It is worth noting that under Harris's leadership, the Democratic government has shown relative tolerance in promoting crypto-related policies. Bitcoin futures ETFs and spot ETFs were approved during the Democratic government's term, which also indicates that Harris is not completely opposed to the innovation and development of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, although Trump's policies may be more favorable to the crypto market, the crypto industry is still expected to maintain a long-term growth trend after Harris takes office.
Additionally, Harris's victory may mean that the U.S. and global economies will continue to expand, the process of globalization will accelerate, and currency will continue to be issued. Under this policy background, the crypto market will benefit from more liquidity and capital inflows. Therefore, whether Harris or Trump takes office, the long-term strengthening trend of the crypto market will not change.
Conclusion
Regardless of the election outcome, the long-term growth trend of the crypto market cannot be changed. If Trump wins, it will further promote the popularity of cryptocurrencies, leading the market to welcome a new round of explosion; while if Harris takes office, although the policies may be relatively mild, the crypto market can still benefit under the backdrop of global currency expansion. Therefore, whether it is short-term market fluctuations or long-term policy trends, the crypto market will be in a relatively favorable growth phase.
