On October 30, Bitcoin failed to set a new historical high, after rising above $73,600, it was only $100 short of $73,777. Unfortunately, the funding subsequently weakened, and after multiple rounds of volatile consolidation, it ultimately declined, with BTC accelerating its drop on the evening of October 31, once probing near $68,800, and has now fallen back to around $69,500.
After ETH rose above $2,700, it also experienced a significant drop, probing down to around $2,500, recovering the gains from the previous days. There was a widespread decline in altcoins.
In terms of contract data, $276 million was liquidated in 24 hours, with $247 million in long positions.
What are the reasons Bitcoin failed to break through the historical high? How will the subsequent market trend?
Before the U.S. election, Harris's support rate in swing states leads to variables.
The U.S. presidential election will officially commence on November 5, and the market often experiences significant fluctuations in the days leading up to it.
Review. On the day of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the BTC market saw a decline in the two days prior, followed by a rise on the day of the election result announcement, and then another decline in the next two days, before rising again.
Although on the prediction market Polymarket, Trump has an overwhelming advantage (with a 63% to 37.1% probability of winning over Harris), polling results show that the support rate difference between Trump and Harris is only 1%.
Zhao Changpeng hinted that a bull market will arrive in 2025
Zhao Changpeng stated during an interview at the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai that he cannot predict the future, but can analyze history. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced a very clear four-year cycle. 2013 and 2017 were bull markets. But in fact, 2012 was a 'recovery year', a point many people did not trace back to. 2016 was also a 'recovery year', followed by a surge in 2017. 2020 was similarly a 'recovery year', and 2021 was a bull market.
Therefore, based on the current analysis, 2024 should also be a 'recovery year'. As for what will happen next year, it is unclear, but in the long run, the entire industry still looks very optimistic.
Which cryptocurrencies during the U.S. presidency are worth paying attention to for speculation opportunities?
$DOGE
The reason why the first meme coin DOGE has joined the political color is inseparable from Musk's support for Trump.
Musk tweeted on August 20 that he wants to create a 'Department of Government Efficiency', abbreviated as D.O.G.E, a concept suggested by the DOGE community. Trump also responded that if elected, he would establish this department to conduct a comprehensive financial audit of the government and propose ways to reduce waste. Therefore, the price performance of DOGE has also begun to be linked to the presidential election.
· Current market cap: 25.5B
· Price change over the last 14 days: +48%
· Upward momentum: Musk's posts and Trump's remarks during rallies
$People
People is not centered around the presidential candidate; it is a token issued by ConstitutionDAO.
ConstitutionDAO is a decentralized organization established in 2021, aimed at raising funds and bidding for a rare copy of the U.S. Constitution at a Sotheby's auction, with a fundraising amount reaching 6,000 ETH, approximately 40 million U.S. dollars.
At the same time, through the blockchain platform Juicebox, the PEOPLE governance token is issued, allowing investors to exchange 1 ETH for 1 million $PEOPLE. Token holders do not directly own the Constitution but have the power to govern the community. After successfully bidding for the Constitution, the DAO community will vote on how to handle this copy.
However, it ultimately failed to win the bid, and thus, ConstitutionDAO announced the project's termination. After processing the refund procedures, community members also decided to dissolve the community, but some members chose to retain the $PEOPLE tokens obtained by exchanging Ethereum and continue other projects in the form of DAO, which also made $People a meme coin.
Meme, full circulation, low market cap, combined with the natural political attributes of the Constitution, have become the driving forces for the rise of People.
· Current market cap: 386M
· Price change over the last 14 days: -7.6%
· Upward momentum: Highly correlated with the timeline of the presidential election
