After the non-farm payroll data was released last night, Bitcoin surged to around 71,600, then plummeted again, testing the support near 68,800. This weekend, it is highly likely to oscillate widely within the range of 68,800 to 71,600. Ethereum also followed the trend of Bitcoin, but is slightly weaker, peaking at 2,580 before pulling back to 2,480.
The major changes in direction still wait for the results of the American election next Tuesday; risk capital may only then re-enter the market on a large scale to push prices further up. Yesterday, BlackRock was still in a buying mode. As small investors, just follow the main forces. Capital inflow does not necessarily mean prices will rise, and subsequent capital outflows do not necessarily mean prices will fall in the short term. However, when capital flows out, it is time to sell at a high! Therefore, BlackRock's movements are worth paying attention to. Currently, it may just be the stage of main force building positions, with the major changes still ahead.
Let's predict the market script after the election!
If Trump is elected as expected, then cryptocurrency will continue its current trend.
Exchanging time for space, BTC is slowly moving up, and altcoins are brewing new plays, waiting for BTC's explosive news to flood in, while altcoins gradually emerge with wealth effects.
If Harris is elected, it is likely to trigger a wave down, and Bitcoin will retest around 60,000.
Altcoins may also revisit previous price levels, and the period of stagnation may last for 2-3 weeks.
Because in 2-3 weeks, the Federal Reserve will hold its next interest rate decision, which may bring an unexpectedly large interest rate cut, rapidly pulling the market back.
People began to shout that the bull is back, but at this time, many may have already lost their chips.
Around December, altcoins began to emerge with various opportunities, and the final bull market truly began.
For reference only!
The countdown to the election has begun. In fact, no matter who becomes president, the bull market trend remains unchanged, and the bull market cycle will continue. As a speculator in the crypto space, of course, we support the victory of the one we understand, as he and Musk are clearly more favorable to cryptocurrency!
However, from a pure betting perspective, one should bet on Harris, because globally, most people still tend to support the one we understand. Because of this, everyone's optimism for the bets is no longer a good trade.
November has arrived, and this month will continue to see interest rate cuts. As long as the first interest rate cut is initiated, it will continue to decrease until it reaches a reasonable value and then maintain it. Interest rate cuts + ETFs, low interest rates + massive capital inflows will initiate an upward spiral; what is needed is to hold patiently!
With the U.S. election approaching, what are the tradable targets?
High market cap coins: DOGE, People
DOGE
The reason why the first meme coin DOGE joined the political color is closely related to Musk's support for Trump.
On August 20, Musk tweeted that he wants to create a 'Department of Government Efficiency', abbreviated as D.O.G.E, and this naming concept was suggested to Musk by the DOGE community. Trump also responded that if elected, he would establish this department, conduct a comprehensive financial audit of the government, and propose to reduce waste. Therefore, the price performance of DOGE has also started to correlate with the presidential election.
Current market cap: 25.5B, price change over the past 14 days: +48%, upward momentum: Musk's posts and Trump's campaign mentions.
People
People is not centered around presidential candidates; it is a token issued by ConstitutionDAO.
ConstitutionDAO is a decentralized organization established in 2021, aimed at raising funds and bidding for a rare copy of the U.S. Constitution at a Sotheby’s auction, raising as much as 6,000 ETH, approximately 40 million dollars.
Meanwhile, through the blockchain platform Juicebox, the PEOPLE governance token is issued, where investors can exchange 1 ETH for 1 million PEOPLE. Token holders do not directly own the constitution but possess the power of community governance. After successfully bidding for the constitution, the DAO community will vote on how to handle this copy.
But ultimately, the bidding was unsuccessful, so ConstitutionDAO announced the end of the project. After processing refunds, community members decided to dissolve the community, but some chose to keep the PEOPLE tokens exchanged for Ethereum and to initiate other projects in the form of a DAO, making $People a meme coin.
Meme, full circulation, low market cap combined with the natural political attributes related to the constitution have become the driving force for People to rise.
Current market cap: 386M, price change over the past 14 days: -7.6%, upward momentum: highly correlated with the timing of the presidential election.
Small market cap coins: MAGA
The concept is an abbreviation of Trump's slogan Make America Great Again, and the price trend of cryptocurrencies is closely related to Trump's polling. There are quite a few Trump-themed coins on the market, including Trump, Tremp, Fight, babytrump, etc. The coins that have performed well in the past two weeks include MAGA. Other coins have seen price increases that are not as expected as Trump's election chances rise. If one believes Trump has a high chance of winning, MAGA is a more stable choice.
Current market cap: 101M, price change over the past 14 days: +83%, upward momentum: rising with the increasing likelihood of Trump winning.
The market dipped to 68,820. Will it drop further?
From on-chain data, when it rose to near 73,000, the main holders in the 65,800-68,700 range were taking profits.
Previously, when it rose to 69,500 and corrected down to around 65,500, the main holders in the 60,000-66,000 range sold off, and then there were large buy orders in the 65,000-65,800 range, until it rose to near 73,000. Now this wave has dropped from near 73,000, and from the market perspective, there is buy order support at 68,800, and from the data, the support is at 68,700, followed by 68,000, 67,200, and the next one is the previous wave position at 66,500.
So the next is about 68,700, is it still going to drop?
If speculation on recession expectations is made, there is a risk; if not, it won't drop too deeply. At the same time, the countdown to the results of the U.S. election has begun. I have mentioned several times that there will be significant volatility in the next few days, and today and tomorrow are weekends with low liquidity.
So one must be cautious.
