Tonight's non-farm data, while not as exaggerated as Bloomberg's forecast of negative values on Monday, is still quite explosive with an increase of 12,000 jobs. Here are my thoughts:

1. If we only look at the increase of 12,000 jobs, one might wonder if a major recession is coming. This is also due to Bloomberg's previous overly exaggerated estimates. The explosive data caused by two super strong hurricanes and the Boeing workers' strike has made the market somewhat prepared. The job additions in October at least indicate that the economic issues are not the problem, but instead bring optimistic expectations for the pace and extent of interest rate cuts.

2. Looking at the unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 0.4% month-on-month increase in hourly wages further alleviates concerns about a recession. Additionally, the recently released October manufacturing PMI of 48.5, which is higher than the previous value and expectations, although still below the line of prosperity, shows that despite the influence of super strong typhoons and strikes in October, the manufacturing sector is still strong, indicating the resilience of the American economy.

3. The explosive ultra-low increase in non-farm jobs and the expected unemployment rate, combined with the manufacturing PMI that exceeded expectations, together can dispel concerns about a recession and increase the probability of a soft landing, while also fostering optimistic expectations for the pace and extent of interest rate cuts. In the short term, this is beneficial for the risk market.

4. At the same time, it can further hedge the recent market's second-order transmission regarding Trump's election victory trade. The perception of Trump's victory trade has shifted from being seen as beneficial for the market to concerns about future inflation rebounds and the continued strengthening of the dollar. Last week, I chatted with a friend who thought the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields were both at a strong resistance level. These days, the market's attention will shift from the election back to the economy and inflation, but the most important factor remains the election results, which will determine the direction of economic, industrial, and fiscal monetary policies for a long time to come, and in turn influence market trends.