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Seu trabalho não é prever para onde o mercado irá em seguida.
Seu trabalho é pensar em probabilidades e fazer boas negociações.

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In every aspect of life, if you want to achieve success, even at the very beginning, always remain true to your values and humble enough to recognize that a single mistake can undo years of sincere effort. Act as if you know nothing, and you'll learn everything. These are the words I was raised with, and I have never forgotten them, not for a moment. In a world dominated by fraudsters who simply aim to lead their followers to the pasture only to milk them later, this advice holds even greater significance for me. The vast majority of such people are deeply corrupted, driven by greed, which mirrors modern society—addicted to quick dopamine hits and inclined to seek rewards without effort.

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If you dislike cryptocurrency and believe it's dead, then feel free to leave. We'll be happy to welcome you back next year. There's no better trillion-dollar casino out there. Furthermore, there's no other casino where you can claim your winnings in what is arguably humanity's greatest invention. We are the luckiest generation in history; we just need to seize this opportunity.

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Advice from a Qualified Psychologist The key is to take action immediately, without procrastinating. How to Increase Your Income? Increasing your income means expanding your horizons. So, how can you achieve this expansion? Every thought begins within us, which is why our internal state is crucial. The external world reflects our internal condition. 1. It’s essential to create new neural connections in the brain. You can do this by brushing your teeth with your non-dominant hand, occasionally writing with your non-dominant hand, or taking different routes when you walk. Expanding your experiences by visiting new places and traveling can also help broaden your horizons. 2. Living in the present is crucial. All of our resources are in the present, not in the past or future. But how can you stay grounded in the present? First, by paying attention to your breath—each inhale and exhale. Second, by feeling your body—your hands, your feet. What sensations do you feel? Third, by observing your emotions. If you’re experiencing negative emotions, you’re likely dwelling in the past. Present-moment emotions are typically feelings of curiosity, joy, and wonder. Holding onto a grudge is a sign that you’re stuck in the past, carrying that old situation into the present. This prevents you from truly living in the here and now. 3. It’s important to adopt an adult mindset. If something unpleasant happens and you feel resentment or blame toward others or the world, you’re slipping into a childlike mindset. Complaints and grievances are typical of a child who didn’t get what they wanted. An adult takes responsibility for everything that happens to them. Everything you currently have is a result of your own actions. 4. Another key aspect of increasing your income is taking risks. If you continue doing the same things, you’ll keep getting the same results. Taking risks can lead to greater achievements. However, it’s crucial to practice proper risk and money management.

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4. New Use Cases for Cryptocurrencies The last three points have mainly focused on speculation in this cycle. But for cryptocurrency to truly be sustainable in the long term, we need stronger use cases to emerge. AI, gaming, and DeFi all seem like obvious candidates, but they have yet to find their footing. The infrastructure has significantly improved since 2021 (despite the price declines). I’m hopeful this will lead to the development of several killer dApps. Cryptocurrencies only need 2-3 breakthroughs to drive widespread adoption. This cycle feels very much like “short-term overvaluation and long-term undervaluation,” at least for now. In conclusion, yes—retail trading has largely retreated. There are solid reasons for this, and this cycle is fundamentally different because of them. But it won’t take much to bring retail trading back. And that day will come sooner than you think.

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On January 1, 2024, Bitcoin was trading at $43,000, with just 10 days left until the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF. Then, on January 10, the Bitcoin Spot ETF officially launched. History was made. What surprised many, including myself, was the overwhelming demand for these ETFs in the short term. Over the course of the year, more than $17 billion was invested in Bitcoin spot ETFs. These positive inflows became the catalyst for a massive Bitcoin rally to new all-time highs (ATH) of $73,000, along with several other macro factors. So, with Bitcoin reaching new ATHs, it would seem logical to expect that altcoins would also skyrocket, just like in 2021—right? Not quite. There are several reasons for this, and understanding them is crucial to answering the questions posed at the beginning of this discussion. Let’s break them down. 1. The primary driver of this cycle has been the Bitcoin ETF. This is vastly different from the previous cycle, where the main driver was macroeconomic conditions. 2. The dynamics of ETFs have completely changed the flow of liquidity. Since most of the new liquidity is now directed into ETFs, it doesn’t flow directly into altcoins, which has radically altered market dynamics this cycle. 3. Altcoin dispersion is greater than ever. The equation is simple: too many new launches, not enough fresh liquidity. 4. Retail traders were burned in 2022. This brings us back to the initial context of this discussion. 2022 dealt a heavy blow, both psychologically and reputationally. 5. There’s a lack of fundamental belief in crypto investing. In 2021, people invested for the long term, with genuine hope and excitement about the potential for this space and its technologies to change the world. Now, everything seems tired. Most of the market participants today are seasoned veterans. There’s a growing mistrust towards altcoins, even toward project founders with good intentions—and who can blame them?

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