Tonight, the PCE data will be released. Will Bitcoin rise or fall? The crypto ETF craze is coming!
The US April ADP employment figures (10,000 people) will be released today, previous value 15.5
The US March core PCE price index year-on-year will be released today, previous value 2.8
In terms of macro data, although the impact of PCE is generally underestimated, the interpretation of GDP shows significant divergence: one side believes the market has fully priced in, and data lag is not an issue; the other side believes that low GDP actually strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is favorable. In addition, the earnings season is also a short-term factor supporting the US stock market.
Overall, uncertainty remains high, and it is more prudent to wait for clearer signals.
Regarding Bitcoin, the current volatile market has not triggered significant turnover, and the market atmosphere is cautious. The main holding positions are still concentrated in the $93,000–$98,000 range, with short-term support still at $90,000. However, due to holders' short-term bias, further consolidation is needed.
Currently, the price is fluctuating around 95,000; it is advisable to maintain a high-level strategy.
Bitcoin 95,300-95,800 range, target 93,500
Ethereum 1,830-1,850 range, target 1,750
We need to go with the trend, stay rational at all times, defend well, and never resist blindly!
Let's give the brothers some motivation and look forward to the market trend; be patient and wait!
On May 8th at 2 AM, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting to determine that there will be no interest rate cuts, but Powell's statement on future interest rate trends is crucial. If he 'doves' and hints at a rate cut in June, it will stimulate a rise in the crypto market; if he 'hawks', the crypto market may fall significantly.
Current data shows that the probability of a rate cut in June is slightly higher than that of no cut, and this Wednesday's PCE inflation data is likely to decline. Overall, it is more likely that Powell will 'dove' in the May meeting to lay the groundwork for a June rate cut, which would be favorable for the crypto market.
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