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On June 26, Lebanon, Israel, and the United States signed a trilateral framework agreement in Washington. The agreement stipulates that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw from two areas within a roughly 6-mile-deep “security zone” in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army taking over. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also claimed that the IDF would continue to control “the vast majority” of the “security zone” in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, while retaining freedom of military action throughout the entire “security zone.” Hezbollah, for its part, explicitly said it would refuse direct talks with Israel and would resist the agreement.

The ink was barely dry when a new round of Israeli attacks began. Reports said an Israeli drone struck an intersection in the Nabatiyeh area of southern Lebanon, and another dropped a stun grenade in the village of Taybeen. The IDF is advancing toward the outskirts of Shuuba village, using medium- and heavy-machine-gun fire along the way. Since a temporary ceasefire went into effect in April, the IDF has repeatedly launched attacks, citing Hezbollah’s alleged violations. This latest assault indicates that the framework agreement has not substantially changed the battlefield situation.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran are also fighting while negotiating. On the 26th, the U.S. military carried out airstrikes against facilities for Iranian missiles and drones, as well as coastal radar sites, as a response to attacks on merchant ships. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently announced it had struck U.S. targets in the Gulf region. The next round of technical U.S.-Iran talks is scheduled for June 30 in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz has resumed limited navigation, but on core issues such as the nuclear dossier, the two sides still hold clearly divergent positions.

The dual pattern of a Lebanon-Israel deal that is “signed but not implemented,” and U.S.-Iran talks that are “fighting while negotiating,” suggests that the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East will not clear quickly just because the agreement has been signed.

BTC is currently fluctuating around $60,000, with a Fear and Greed Index of about 15 (extreme fear). Geopolitical conflict may boost safe-haven demand in the short term, but upward room is limited amid expectations of tighter macro policy and continued ETF outflows.

Progress in the U.S.-Iran technical talks on June 30 will be a key short-term variable. $BTC

US stock market opening confirms global sell-off transmitting to the domestic scene. Nasdaq opened down 2.36%, once dipping over 500 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 7%, marking the largest single-day drop in this phase, with all 30 component stocks in the red. Storage chips took a heavy hit, with SanDisk down 12.25% and Micron down 10.97%. ARM and Qualcomm fell over 7%, ASML and AMD dropped over 6%, and TSMC fell 6.17%. The big seven are showing divergence, with Microsoft and Apple up over 1%, but Tesla down 4% and Nvidia down over 3%.

BTC spot ETF has seen net redemptions for 12 consecutive days, setting a record since the product's launch. Nearly $3 billion has flowed out over the past 10 days, with total assets under management shrinking from $104 billion to $80.2 billion, totaling over $35 billion in outflows, including a single redemption of over $3 billion from IBIT, as institutional funds continue to exit at an accelerated pace.

On the futures side, approximately $1.8 billion has been closed out, with high leverage liquidations exceeding $1.1 billion, a significant upgrade from the previous $500 million, and long leverage liquidations are far from over. On-chain data is synchronously deteriorating, with 10.2 million BTC underwater, and profitable holdings have dropped below the 15-year trend line, creating dual selling pressure from long-term holders and ETF institutional redemptions.

BTC is currently holding above the low of $61,862, with the $62,000 support surviving the initial hit from the US stock market opening. However, under the combined weight of ongoing ETF redemptions, escalated futures liquidations, and expanding on-chain losses, the support remains fragile.

If semiconductors continue to weaken, it will drag down overall risk appetite. If $62,000 fails to hold, a test of $60,000 will accelerate. $BTC

On June 23, Trump posted that Iran has "completely and thoroughly agreed" to long-term or even permanent acceptance of the highest level of nuclear inspections, and if they disagree, negotiations will be terminated.

He also announced that based on Iran's "concessions," the Strait will remain open, with U.S. naval vessels on standby to reimpose a blockade if necessary. Frozen assets will be deposited into U.S.-controlled escrow accounts, specifically for purchasing American food and medical supplies.

However, Iran has been firing back! Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated there are currently no plans for IAEA inspectors to visit damaged nuclear facilities. Permanent UN representative Bahraini also directly refuted the U.S. claims, stating that there hasn't been such a decision, nor any discussion about it. Iran's Central Bank Governor Hemmati further stated that, based on the already signed memorandum of understanding, there is no obligation to purchase agricultural products from the U.S.

The divergence over nuclear inspections marks the third public fracture since the agreement was signed, with previous tensions centered on the management rights of the Strait and the use of oil revenues. Regarding the Strait, Bahraini confirmed full access for merchant ships for 60 days at no charge. On June 22, at least 36 merchant vessels crossed the Strait, marking the highest single-day count since the conflict began in late February, returning to nearly one-third of pre-war levels.

Iran and Oman issued a joint statement indicating they will negotiate the future management mechanism and fee standards for the Strait.

In the U.S. stock market, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 7.87%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.21%. Data shows traders have shifted from expecting a single rate hike two weeks ago to betting on two hikes within the year.

These three parallel divergences are weakening the execution of the agreement. The 60-day opening of the Strait eases short-term risks, but if the nuclear inspection divergence leads to a breakdown in negotiations, it could trigger a blockade again.

BTC remains weak in the $62,000 range; prior to the PCE data release, any regression in U.S.-Iran relations or heightened rate hike expectations could accelerate testing of the $60,000-$60,400 level. $BTC

The U.S. Senate passed a war powers resolution with a vote of 50 to 48, demanding Trump withdraw troops from Iran. Previously, the House of Representatives approved the same text with a vote of 215-208. This marks the first time since the 1973 War Powers Act that both chambers of Congress have simultaneously passed a resolution compelling the president to terminate military actions.

Four Republican senators broke ranks to vote in favor, disrupting the previously unified Republican support for Trump's military policy. The White House has outright denied the resolution's validity, arguing that the War Powers Act itself is unconstitutional and that a ceasefire was reached on April 7, making the resolution's context obsolete. Legally, the 1973 Act states such resolutions take effect without presidential signature, but a 1983 Supreme Court ruling requires a presidential approval process, leading to a legal stalemate where no eligible party can initiate enforcement litigation.

Even so, this resolution significantly tightens the White House's operational space for resuming military actions and funding against Iran. Trump had previously stated that if negotiations faltered, he wouldn’t rule out restarting military strikes, but now the political cost of that option has considerably increased. U.S. polls show that only 25% of Americans approve of the value of military engagement in Iran, with over half concerned about the sustainability of the ceasefire.

Additionally, Senate Republican leader McConnell confirmed that any subsequent peace agreement with Iran must be submitted to Congress for review based on the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act. This introduces critical variables regarding whether the agreement will ultimately materialize.

For BTC, this resolution lowers the tail risk of renewed U.S.-Iran conflict, providing a slight bullish bias in the short term as geopolitical uncertainty marginally converges. However, the need for congressional review of the peace agreement means a longer execution path with greater uncertainty. If terms are significantly modified or vetoed during the review period, it could drive geopolitical premiums back up. BTC is currently holding above $62,000, which remains the dividing line for short-term bulls and bears. With PCE data looming, market sentiment is notably cautious, and the resolution's impact on the charts is primarily emotional, not altering the technical setup. $BTC

The long liquidations are deepening, and signs of capitulation among long-term holders are emerging.

A giant whale on the Hyperliquid platform is holding a total of $415 million in long positions across seven addresses, including 120,000 ETH and 2,000 BTC, currently facing an unrealized loss of $91.46 million. The average entry price for their BTC is $72,134, which puts them approximately $10,000 underwater at the current price, but they haven't triggered a forced liquidation yet.

The total unrealized losses for crypto institutional strategies have reached $10.47 billion, with realized losses for BTC climbing to $889 million, marking a new high since the FTX collapse in November 2022.

The market is currently undergoing the deepest liquidation cycle for longs since the FTX incident, and the capitulation is ongoing rather than nearing an end.

A key signal is that MicroStrategy has broken its 'no selling' principle by selling 32 BTC. The overall unrealized losses among long-term BTC holders stand at 15.5%, resonating with the earlier capitulation of miners and the sell-off from whales holding for over seven years. This indicates that the sell pressure has spread from short-term leveraged liquidations to the capitulation phase of long-term holders.

If the $415 million whale position gets liquidated, it could trigger a chain reaction of sell pressure. The average entry price of $72,134 suggests significant resistance from trapped buyers before a rebound to that level. Likewise, the $10.47 billion unrealized losses among institutions are also leaning towards a reduction in positions to mitigate risk. Realized losses have hit new highs since November 2022, confirming that the capitulation depth is nearing extremes but is not yet complete.

$62,000 serves as the short-term battleground for bulls and bears, with the next testing zone between $60,400 and $60,000. It’s not advisable to heavily bottom-fish ahead of the PCE data release. $BTC

Latest news: South Korea's KOSPI index plummeted 8.3% during trading, triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading for 20 minutes. The KOSDAQ startup board also activated the Sidecar circuit breaker, pausing algorithmic trading for 5 minutes. This marks the most aggressive single-day drop in the Korean stock market since June. SK Hynix dropped over 11%, Samsung Electronics fell more than 8%, and Hyundai and Kia saw declines of over 11% and 8%, respectively. Foreign investors sold off more than $1.3 billion in a single day, with the total outflow in June far exceeding any other month this year.

The core reason for the crash lies in the extreme gains of AI chip stocks previously. SK Hynix had just surpassed Samsung to become the top company by market cap in Korea on Monday, leading to a valuation bubble compounded by high-leverage semiconductor ETFs amplifying volatility. Korea's top financial regulator publicly criticized leveraged ETFs tracking a single semiconductor leader as "having no function other than causing losses for investors," and is preparing a market stabilization plan.

As one of the top three cryptocurrency trading markets globally, the KOSPI circuit breaker-level drop has led to a sharp contraction in retail investors' risk appetite.

Crypto assets are experiencing significant sell pressure linked to Asian risk assets, facing downward pressure across the board.

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that long-term whales, holding assets for over 7 years, are continuously selling at a rate of about 1,000 coins per hour. While this is a routine profit-taking strategy, it resonates with the selling pressure from Korean retail investors.

The uncertainty lies in the strength of the regulatory stabilization measures! If Korea restricts leveraged ETFs or introduces a short-selling ban, a quick stabilization may occur. However, if they allow free fall, panic could spread to Japan and beyond. Additionally, today's Asian sell-off happened before the U.S. market opened; if U.S. stocks drop as well, sell pressure in the crypto market will further intensify.

Korean circuit breaker events typically lead to short-term overselling but do not alter the mid-term trend. For now, it's best to sit on the sidelines, waiting for regulatory signals and the performance of the U.S. market opening. $BTC

After the US-Iran negotiations reached a phased consensus, the control of the Strait of Hormuz has been handed over to Tehran and is now in the execution phase. In the past 24 hours, 24 merchant ships have crossed, maintaining the average level of the previous three days, but far below the normal flow of 140 ships per day before the crisis, indicating a slow recovery in shipping.

Regarding the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, both the US and Iran have decided to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and set up a 'conflict avoidance group' to coordinate the tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. However, Israeli Defense Minister Katz has previously stated that the military actions are 'not subject to any restrictions', and Israel's non-cooperation remains the biggest risk.

Internal political resistance in the US is beginning to surface. Senators Ted Cruz and Roger Wicker have publicly questioned the terms of the agreement as being too lenient towards Iran, undermining regional security. If hardliners in Congress initiate legislative pushback or apply pressure on the administration, the execution of the 60-day roadmap will face additional uncertainty.

Ultimately, the slow recovery of the strait passage suggests geopolitical risks may slowly fade rather than clear swiftly. The extension of the ceasefire is a positive signal, but the triple risks of domestic political resistance in the US, Israeli non-cooperation, and the discrepancies between Iran's military and political spheres remain unresolved.

Soon, the PCE data on June 25 will be the next directional catalyst. It is not advisable to go heavy before the triple risks are resolved. $BTC