佬K看盘

Just finished translating the chapter in *The Cycle* about the pendulum. Howard Marks says the market always swings between extremes—it never rests in the middle.

In crypto, the pendulum swings even wider.
When it swings to greed, it can pull anything up for you.
When it swings to fear, it can even smash Ethereum—the #2—so badly that nobody dares to take it.

Tonight, $ETH quote is 1,734; in the past 24 hours it’s up 1.92%, with trading volume of 426 million USDT.
At this level, it’s neither high nor low, but the swing range is clearly narrowing.

Actually, there’s no such thing as a “normal range” in crypto.
What you can do isn’t predicting which way it will swing next minute.
It’s to make sure you’re on the right side when it overshoots.

Tonight’s setup is like the pendulum has just swung through a round and is now hesitating in the middle.
I don’t have the ability to judge which way its next step will add force.
But I can wait—wait for the day it swings to the extremes again.

I won’t touch this level.

I went over today’s market action before bed. To be honest, today was quite informative.

Today, BTC ranged between 61,109 and 62,282, and ultimately closed at 62,108, up +0.27% for the day. What’s most worth watching here isn’t the ups and downs themselves, but whether trading volume picked up. Today’s volume was 999 million USDT—honestly not very active—suggesting market sentiment remains rather cautious.

ETH is a bit stronger: +2.19% for the day, closing at 1,748, with a trading range of 1,686 to 1,753. The correlation with BTC is still very clear—if BTC doesn’t move, it’s hard for ETH to move independently.

The biggest mover today is $WLD : up +7.77% for the day, with volume of 47 million. This kind of move is either funds getting in early, or a tug-of-war in sentiment that amplified the volatility.

The key signal today: whether BTC can expand volume at key levels will determine the direction next. Tomorrow I’ll focus on whether BTC at the xxx level can hold.

Did you guys hunt down a target today? Which coin are you most watching tomorrow?

#BTC #ETH #全天复盘 #crypto

Today this move is going… RE slid all the way down from the morning session, briefly dipping to a low of 0.612. It’s only just managed to recover to about 0.645.

RSI is at 38.1, relatively weak—it's not oversold yet, but it’s not far off. MACD is still in a bearish configuration: DIF is negative and hasn’t turned.

MA5 is pressing down on MA20. Price is moving below both moving averages, with bears controlling the market. Trading volume has also shrunk—down by roughly a third versus yesterday—which suggests longs don’t dare to step in.

Support: look at the 0.58 area. It held twice before. Resistance remains 0.76, the neck line level on the daily timeframe. It broke through earlier, but couldn’t hold.

Tomorrow, it will likely test downward again toward around 0.58. If it pulls back with reduced volume and doesn’t break 0.58, then a minor bounce could be possible. But until volume increases, don’t expect a reversal.

Be careful: in a bearish trend, if selling volume suddenly surges and breaks through 0.58, price could drop directly toward around 0.5.

My plan: if it pulls back to around 0.58 and stabilizes on reduced volume, I’ll consider adding a small long position. Stop-loss will be set below 0.56, and take-profit will first be looked at around 0.66. If 0.58 breaks with volume, I’ll place an order to short on the bounce. This is just my personal plan, not a trade call.

At this level, I’m not touching it.

晚饭后扫一眼涨幅榜，今天最后两小时最猛的居然是$WLD ，拉到0.4259，涨了12.29%。

这笔涨幅挺硬，不是纯情绪盘。RSI 66.3还没过热，MACD多头排列，DIF在零轴上方0.009，均线系统也撑得住——MA5在0.4216，MA20在0.4135，价格站在这两条线上面，短期多头占优。

但量没跟上。成交0.48亿，比均量缩了不少。缩量拉上去的盘面，容易骗炮。

技术指标全看过一遍：布林带价格靠近上轨，不是追多的好位置。关键阻力在0.44，今天日内高点也卡在这个位置，没过去。下面支撑看0.36，离现在有点远，但那是24小时低点附近，破了就没戏。

合约参考位：如果回踩到0.41到0.415区间，轻仓试多可以考虑，止损挂在0.395下面。目标先看0.44，站稳了再考虑减仓。实话说，没量配合的拉升，后面大概率要补跌一波。谁爱接谁接。

这位置我不碰。

ETH is a bit interesting tonight. It hovered around 1740 all day, and now it’s starting to move.

Current price is 1743. It pulled up strongly today—from 1648 this morning straight to 1749. The amplitude is close to 100 points.

24-hour trading volume is 578 million (5.78B), about the same as usual—not the kind of explosive volume that forces a squeeze.

RSI has climbed to 77.1, which is in the overbought zone. MACD is still in a bullish alignment, with the DIF holding above 20.

MA5 is at 1730 and MA20 is at 1710. Price is standing above both lines, and the short-term moving averages are still trending upward.

The Bollinger Bands are leaning toward the upper band; the band width is 7.6%. Since it’s relatively narrow, once it opens up, it can move with force in the direction it breaks.

Key support is around 1565 — that’s the mid-June ranging low. If it breaks, the structure changes. Resistance is 1749. It was tested twice during the day and rejected both times.

Technically, the indicators are a bit conflicting: the RSI being overbought hints at a pullback, but price is still above MA5, and the volume hasn’t contracted. For the short-term, the bearish signals are stronger—mainly judged by price + volume. If it keeps chopping around 1740 with continuously reduced volume, then tonight the odds of searching for MA20 to the downside are higher.

If BTC suddenly turns and drops hard, ETH will most likely break 1730 and fall back directly to 1710 or even 1700. If BTC stays firm, ETH may just chop between 1730 and 1749.

My personal plan: if a rebound reaches the 1745–1749 zone, I’ll try a small short position, with a stop-loss set above 1755. First I’ll watch 1730; if it breaks, then I’ll look at 1710.

If it retraces to around 1710 and holds steady, I might consider taking a short-term long, with the stop-loss placed below 1700 and a target at 1730. I won’t go heavy here. This is only my personal plan, not a call. If you lose money, don’t come find me.

This market looks really tiring. I’m going to rest.

#ETH #晚间行情 #币圈 #Ethereum

I just found a line in *The Naval Code*: “Long-termism is the greatest lever.”

What flashed through my mind wasn’t belief. It was rules.

I can’t quite remember Naval’s exact wording, but I get the meaning. Long-termism isn’t just stubbornly taking a beating. It’s the framework you set before you even enter the game. It’s discipline. It’s not letting every single candlestick dictate your rhythm.

Like today $ETH . Right now it’s at 1,736—up 5.47% in the last 24 hours, with $586 million in trading volume.

Sounds exciting, doesn’t it? But what truly helps you ride through bull and bear cycles isn’t how much you believe in ETH. It’s the rules you wrote in advance—where you enter, where you exit, and where you just refuse to move.

If the chart twitches, you panic. That isn’t long-termism. That’s just following the current.

Belief can waver. Rules won’t.

I’m not touching this spot.

The strongest move today is undoubtedly the big pancake (大饼), but this SOL 2.7% bullish candle is moving more solidly than the big pancake.

SOL is currently at 80.94, with trading volume of 279 million, and the price has pulled back while staying above the moving average.

If it can run like this, it's mainly because the RSI has returned to the relatively strong zone around 51.5. The MACD is still in bearish territory, but the DIF has already turned upward. MA5 and MA20 are sticking together, and the price is hovering in the middle—this is a build-up posture, not distribution.

At this position, tomorrow is likely to be more bullish, but the strength depends on whether it can stand above 82.8 with volume. The risk is that if tomorrow continues the low-volume pull-up, and there’s no volume at the open, it will most likely retest 80.8 or even 79.5.

If it pulls back to around 80.5, I’ll consider trying a small long position. I would place the stop-loss below 79.2, aiming first at 82.8; if it breaks through, then watch 84.5. The above is just my personal plan, not a call to trade.

Support: 74.6. Resistance: 82.8.

From here, I’m leaning bullish. Let’s wait and see the volume. What about you?

#SOL #比特币 #以太坊 #Technical Analysis

Newton is taking a very concrete approach in the on-chain compliance track. With @NewtonProtocol’s authorization layer built on EigenLayer AVS, the core logic of “who can spend how much and under what conditions” is fully encoded into executable on-chain strategies. After the Mainnet Beta launch, I’ve already seen developers deploy automation strategies using the VaultKit SDK—such as setting a spending cap per individual transaction and performing whitelist checks for cross-chain transfers. Processes that used to require manual verification are now running on-chain.

Because of this, the purpose of $NEWT has become clear. As a fee and governance token, its consumption scenarios are directly tied to every strategy call and every rule validation. The total supply is 1 billion tokens, and the initial circulating amount isn’t large. The more users there are, the more frequently strategies are deployed, and only then does the token’s economic circulation truly come to life. This is different from many pure governance tokens: NEWT actually drives real demand.

On the technical side, the dual-verification route of TEE + ZKP is more practical than relying on ZKP alone. TEE handles computations involving sensitive data efficiently, while ZKP ensures the results are verifiable. RedStone has already been integrated into the policy execution layer as a data source. This combination can cover institutional-grade scenarios such as exchanges and lending protocols—for example, requiring a proof that sufficient collateral accompanies every trade before it can be executed.

The narrative around #Newt hasn’t yet been priced by the market. Most chains are still competing on TPS, while Newton’s position is on the “rule automation” of on-chain operations. Once this direction is fully working, compliance costs could shift from manual review to code execution—an impact on DeFi and RWA may be even greater than just achieving higher throughput.

Brother, you made profit on this one ten times—maybe it’s not enough for a loss that happens only once.

I know an older guy. Earlier this year, during that ETH move from 1600 to 1800, his first five trades were all correct—each one netted him about three to five percentage points. He was feeling pretty proud.

Then on the sixth trade, he went short. He thought it had risen too much and should pull back. He entered and it immediately kept rising to 1720. He held on, saying, “It’ll come down before I leave.”

But it surged to 1780. He panicked—he just didn’t cut the loss.

In the end, it pulled up to 1850 and he got liquidated. The profits from those first five trades, plus his principal, got wiped out in one go.

He told me that the most painful thing isn’t losing money—it’s looking back and realizing that even if he had cut losses at 1780, he would still have five chances to start over.

But he just couldn’t accept the fact that this trade was wrong.

The dirtiest thing in trading is that you never know which time not cutting a loss will send you off. Ten correct decisions—can you hold up to one trade’s loss that you can’t bear? You can’t.

This chart looks like MA5 and MA20 are sticking near 1710, RSI at 63 isn’t weak, and the MACD is still in a bearish shrinking phase. Nobody knows which way it’ll whip next second.

Anyway, I got scared. Cut losses when you need to—don’t wait.

I just read a line from Soros’s theory of reflexivity, and suddenly it made me think of the market this afternoon.

The exact sentence from the book is: “The market is always biased.”

Soros says that you are both the audience and the actor. The very action you take—buying—changes the order book. That’s different from physics. Quantum mechanics also has the observer effect, but markets are even more extreme.

Look at today’s $ETH . It’s at 1715 right now, up more than 5 points, with $600 million in volume. This kind of rise is itself the result of there being more buyers. But if everyone becomes even more determined to buy simply because “it’s up,” then the price reflects not value, but everyone encouraging each other.

In other words, the more people buy, the more the price deviates from the facts. And then there’s always a day when people wake up.

Soros calls this the reflexive cycle. It’s always the same. Today’s chart is just an afternoon slice from a new round of the cycle.

Don’t think, “This time is different.” It never is.

Write it down first.

After lunch, I glanced at the order book. Today all the funds are stacked in $WLD . One line pulled it up by 8 points, and in half an hour, a trading volume of 50 million USDT got executed.

WLD is now at 0.4145. The 24-hour range is 0.36 to 0.44. Volume is 50 million, and it’s up to 1.4× the average—this isn’t retail FOMO buying; it’s actually being eaten by someone. RSI is at 63.4 and hasn’t gotten overheated yet. The MACD bullish divergence is showing. The DIF is positive at 0.0107. The short-term moving averages MA5 and MA20 already formed a golden cross and are moving upward. Funds choose it because this level is exactly where it bounced off support around 0.36. Today it surged in volume and broke above MA20 at 0.3986, and the shorts got pushed through.

Chasing carries risk: 0.44 above is the hard resistance. The 24-hour high at 0.4395 is stuck right there. The last three times of rebounds have all died at this level. If the volume isn’t enough, it’ll be a fake breakout.

My plan: if it pulls back to around 0.40 and doesn’t break, I’ll try a long position with a small size, with a stop loss placed below 0.395. If it directly rallies to 0.44 but can’t put out volume, then I won’t touch it. The above is my personal trading plan—if you lose money, don’t come find me.

This level— not everyone can hold it.

#WLD #午盘 #涨幅榜 #币圈

I recently looked into the Mainnet Beta of @NewtonProtocol, and it’s definitely pretty interesting. It’s built on an EigenLayer AVS architecture to create a programmable compliance layer—essentially moving the execution of on-chain rules from concept into production. $NEWT , as the core token, plays a role in verification and incentives within this framework. This approach of embedding compliance logic directly into the consensus layer is more flexible than traditional on-chain governance. I heard that the mainnet is already running compliance scripts with #Newt , and I’m looking forward to more developers writing rules.

The night before last, when I was trading on $RE , the price action was still hovering around 0.58.

Then I woke up and it had jumped straight to 0.75. It was up 15 points in 24 hours.

Then 160 million USD in trades came crashing in.

What was the mood like then? Someone in the group was shouting, “This is about to go STO!”

Someone had a sell order up at 0.8, waiting to sell.

I got swept up in the hype too, and bought an extra batch at 0.72.

Guess what happened? It surged up and then pulled back, getting smashed down to 0.68.

I stared at the screen, with my finger hovering over the stop-loss button.

In the end, I didn’t cut.

Looking back, who was actually buying this time?

Those who had been stuck from two months ago used this rebound to make their exit.

And there were also some short-term traders chasing the news.

But the real big players were quietly reducing their positions around 0.75.

The mood went from excitement to fear in just four hours.

What I want to say is:

Don’t think the bull run is here every time the market pumps.

From 0.58 to 0.75—if it’s gone far enough, it’s gone far enough.

If you insist on chasing, either you catch a falling knife or you end up as bagholder.

Anyway, I’m not daring to move anymore.

This morning I flipped through 《Reminiscences of a Stock Operator》 and I’ve been staring at a quote from Livermore for a long time.

He said: big money isn’t made in every fluctuation—it’s made in the big trend.
When I read this back then, I thought, isn’t that obvious nonsense?
It took me a few years playing around in crypto to understand: frequent trading is slow suicide.

This morning, I got up and took a look at $ETH .
At 1,697, it’s been up nearly 6% in 24 hours, with trading volume of more than 600 million USDT.
This price action looks lively. Some people chased in overnight, and some people just cut their losses.
But if you look back, what is today’s 5.8% move compared to the choppy range over the past month?

What Livermore wrote himself was: “My key to making big money isn’t through trading—it’s by staying put and doing nothing.”
Chapter 17 of 《Reminiscences of a Stock Operator》.

The market isn’t short on opportunities.
What it lacks is whether you can resist touching those “seemingly profitable” little swings.
Trading fees, slippage, emotional erosion—when you add all of it up, it’s worse than a single big loss.

Today’s market is just replaying the same lesson again.

Write it down first.

# $ETH #投资哲学 #交易心态 #早上读 #Good morning thoughts

ETH moved back and forth between 1680 and 1695 this morning, then around 1700 it turned into a short-term psychological anchor. Over the past 24 hours, the high was 1725 and the low was 1603, with volume contracting to only about two-tenths of its average.

RSI reached 71 and is stuck in the overbought zone. MACD is still in bearish territory; the DIF is near 21, which is somewhat divergent from price. MA5 is at 1700, MA20 at 1675, and price is exactly stuck between these two lines—bulls haven’t fully surrendered, but bears also haven’t gained strength. The Bollinger upper band is around 1730; the bandwidth has tightened and volatility is compressing.

Key support is 1552-1565, where it has been repeatedly held for the past two weeks. Overhead resistance is 1725-1713; yesterday it tried to break up twice but failed to get through.

This setup looks like it’s waiting for BTC to make a statement. During the low-volume sideways consolidation, RSI is overbought but price doesn’t fall, suggesting selling pressure isn’t heavy, though buying interest isn’t very strong either. If it can rise with volume in the morning and hold above 1700, it may test 1725 again. If it breaks below the MA20 at 1675, then watch out for a pullback toward 1550.

My plan is: if it retests around 1675 and then stabilizes with volume, I’ll take a small long position, with a stop-loss set just below 1650—first watching 1700, and if it breaks through, then 1725. If it suddenly pushes up to 1725 on low volume, I won’t chase. If it breaks below 1675, I won’t catch the falling knife.

You decide for yourself. If you lose money, don’t come looking for me.

This chart is really exhausting. I’m taking a break.

#ETH #早盘 #行情分析 #币圈

Glance before the market opens. BTC is currently stuck at 61,455; over the past 24h it’s up +1.66%, and overall it’s biased to the upside. ETH is around 1,696; over the past 24h it’s up +4.64% as well, also biased to the upside.

The range BTC traded overnight was 59,588 to 62,200—this level is quite critical. If, at the open, it breaks out on volume and holds steady near 62,200, short-term sentiment will improve a lot; on the other hand, if it gets sold hard and drops below 59,588 right at the open, then today is most likely to be a choppy/sideways day.

For ETH, it’s more a case of watching BTC’s face. If the “big pie” doesn’t give direction, it’s hard for Ethereum to move independently. Trading volume is 631 million USDT—not particularly active—suggesting everyone is waiting for a signal at the open.

Today I won’t act right after the open. I’ll watch for the first half hour to confirm the direction first. When you open, do you focus on the big pie first, or on the altcoins?

#BTC #ETH #早盘 #行情前瞻

Just flipped to a passage in <i>The Reminiscences of a Stock Operator</i> and suddenly paused.

Livermore said: don’t try to catch every flicker in the market. Wait for the big move, then act.

I used to think this was just motivational talk. After a few years in the crypto space, I finally realized that the wear and tear from constant entering and exiting can eat into your principal more than a single large loss.

Look at the chart for $ETH tonight. The price is at 1,704, up 4.91% over the past 24 hours, with trading volume of 661 million USDT. The price really is moving.

But can you read this move? If you can’t, forcing yourself into it to trade short term will have already swallowed that gain in costs.

I don’t remember Livermore’s exact wording, but the gist is: making big money isn’t about small fluctuations—it’s about patience with the big trend.

Tonight’s market: the price has moved up, and volume is fairly moderate. But it’s also telling me a lesson—that you don’t have to reach out and grab every bullish candle.

It’s right not to make a move today.

Write it down first.

At midnight I glanced at the gainers leaderboard—today’s secret pump is TLM. In the past 24 hours, it surged by 51 percentage points.

At 4 a.m., the fake leaderboard looks clean. This push is basically emotionless—no hype trading—just daytime’s existing capital stubbornly propping it up.

With a trading volume of 0.40 billion USDT, compared to before, the daily average volume is shrinking. Liquidity is thin in the early morning, which basically means the current buy side is small, and the sell side is even smaller. In just a few minutes, it could be smashed back down, and it could also keep charging for several candles.

RSI is already 71.5, entering the overbought zone. MACD is still in a bullish alignment: the DIF line is 0.0002, and the trend hasn’t broken. MA5 is at 0.001780; the price is hugging MA5. MA20 is at 0.001482, and the short-term moving averages are still diverging upward.

The key support to watch is 0.001482—that’s the MA20 level. If it pulls back to there and holds, it means this move hasn’t fallen apart. Resistance first sits at 0.002107, the 24-hour high. If it can’t break through, you get a double-top structure.

The issue with the data is: shrinking volume + overbought conditions equals a classic “existing-liquidity pumping-for-ignorant-profits” setup. This isn’t new money coming in—it’s old positions propping it up. The biggest risk with this kind of market is that, all of a sudden in the early morning, someone dumps. If liquidity gets drained, in a minute it could drop by 15%.

According to my own plan: if around 0.001482 it pulls back on reduced volume and holds, I’ll consider trying a small long position, with a stop-loss set below 0.001400. If it directly rips up toward 0.002107 with increased volume but stalls, then don’t touch it—wait for a pullback. If it goes up without volume, then even if it goes up, it’s false.

The above is just my personal plan, not a signal call.

I’m not touching this level.

ETH is still trading with the “big pie” at this point; it hasn’t moved independently.

Liquidity is thin in the early hours. The level around 1,696 looks steady, but a single wick can punch right through.

Right now the correlation rate is very high. If the big pie doesn’t move, ETH won’t move. If the big pie dips by 200 bucks, ETH could immediately flip and follow down toward the 1,600 area.

MA5 is at 1,698, with price hugging it—there’s no real gap. MA20 is at 1,651, which at least provides a buffer for the bottom.

RSI(14) is at 74.0, which is in the overbought zone. Chasing longs from here isn’t really worth it.

MACD is still in a bullish arrangement, with DIF at 24.94, but volume has shrunk to 0.0 times the average volume—no one’s trading. In a low-volume state, bullish signals come with reduced reliability.

The Bollinger Band is biased slightly upward; bandwidth is 8.9%, not wide. In the early hours, once a direction breaks out, it accelerates.

The key support is at 1,552. That line marks the prior-low structure area—if it breaks to the downside, there’s nothing underneath to catch it.

Resistance is around 1,725. The 24-hour high is right there; for a move up in the early morning, you’d need the big pie to increase volume and push.

If the big pie suddenly dumps in the middle of the night, ETH’s first reaction will be to follow the drop. If 1,650 can’t hold, it will go straight to find 1,552.

Order placement notes: Don’t place market orders in the early morning. When liquidity is poor, slippage can cost you two points. Use limit orders—place them well and walk away.

My own plan is: if there’s a pullback to around 1,650, I’ll consider trying a long with a small position size, with a stop loss set below 1,640. First watch 1,700; if it breaks through, then look at 1,725.

The above is just my personal plan, not a call to trade.

This market is really exhausting. I’m taking a break.

The order book at 2 a.m. is more honest than during the day.

BTC is hovering around 61,616. At this hour, anyone still watching it isn’t a rookie—either they’re not new to this game, or they’re an old hand.

Trading volume has shrunk to only a fraction of the daytime average. Liquidity is thin, like a sheet of paper.

With a chart like this, a single large order can puncture the price by 200–300 points.

If it moves up, 62,200 is a hard bone. It didn’t get past it in the daytime—at dawn it’s even more uncertain.

If it drops, 58,310 is a checkpoint; below that, 57,800 is a psychological line.

RSI is 66.4—slightly strong, but not overbought. MACD is still in the bullish zone.

MA5 is at 61,684 and price is tracking along it. MA20 is at 60,860, so support is holding up reasonably.

Bollinger Band width is only 5.5%, and the channel is tightening.

At times like this, the directional choice often happens between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m.

If suddenly a wick spikes down to around 58,300, I’ll consider a small-lot long attempt. I’ll place the stop-loss below 57,700, first looking at 60,500; if that breaks, then 62,000.

If volume surges and 58,300 is smashed through, then I’d flip to short on a rebound toward about 58,500, with a stop-loss above 59,200 and a target at 57,000.

Whatever you do, don’t chase orders in the early morning. The spread is wide and liquidity is poor. If you place a 10 BTC order, it may get swept through immediately.

The above is only my personal plan—if you lose money, don’t come find me.

This market really feels exhausting to watch.