Prepare your summer strategy. Timing is crucial

https://youtu.be/M6ZEEJlwCKE?si=I7i9ksAd57q5mMGF

The altcoin season index points out that we entered a Bitcoin season. Altcoins are continually underperforming Bitcoin , and this behaviour is expected to continue until the end of rate cuts. Always manage your risk.

The recent Ethereum price surge might have a surprising story behind it.

Who pumped ETH, retail or institutional investors?

Answer: Whales or institutions.

Addresses holding between 10-100, 100-1K, 1K-10K Ethereum continue to decline, while addresses holding 10K-100K ETH (whales or institutions?) are on the rise post-spot ETF approval. This trend could be bad news for ETH as retail investors are still not interested in ETH, but on the other hand, the interest from institutions may bring retail interest back into the Ethereum ecosystem. ETH spot ETF inflows (when trade starts) will help us know more.

Which crypto holds the largest position in your portfolio?

What is your prediction for Bitcoin’s July monthly returns? Green or Red?

Happy Bitcoin Pizza Day 🎉

Altcoin growth occurs because Bitcoin allows it.

"The Bitcoin effect explained"

Bitcoin's dominance (around 50%) in the cryptocurrency market is undeniable. While many altcoins emerge with inflated valuations and fleeting popularity, Bitcoin exhibits a sustained, power-law-driven growth pattern (we know that thanks to Giovanni). This raises the question: What trajectory does the total crypto market cap (Bitcoin & Altcoins) follow?

I wanted to test if the performance of altcoins changes the already-established trend that Bitcoin exhibits in the market, positively or negatively.
By analysing the total crypto market cap data from the inception of the first cryptocurrency (BTC) until today, we see that it also follows a power law (power of 6.83). This indicates that the TMC is growing faster than BTC, and that, in my opinion, is because the total crypto market is standing on the shoulder of a giant "Bitcoin." I changed the quote of Isaac Newton a bit.

I just tested that, so more research is needed on Bitcoin's effect on the TMC. I get the feeling, though, that the gains we see on the altcoin market are due to the fact that we are sitting on Bitcoin's trend, and "good" and "bad" projects are benefiting from it. At least for now, it seems a net positive

Currently, 91.36% of Bitcoin  and 91.22% of Ethereum supply is in profit. High-profit levels usually lead to increased selling pressure as investors look to cash in gains. However, despite this, both cryptocurrencies have remained relatively stable over the past month, especially Bitcoin. This stability suggests that holders are not keen to sell at current prices. $BTC $ETH

📉Trading volume nosedives by 55.80% since its peak on March 3, 2024, signalling a significant downturn in activity and market interest. As summer approaches, brace for a prolonged 'quiet period' ahead.

📉Despite a dip in people's interest levels, resembling 2022 lows, the total crypto market cap is just 13.4% below its fair value.
💎With Quantitative Easing on the horizon for 2025, the future looks bright! Projection hints at least a $9.44 trillion crypto market cap (+1SD).

Analyzing Bitcoin 's monthly returns since 2010, May's track record stands at 8 green closes vs. 5 red. Do you think this May will be "sell in May and walk away?"$BTC

Being able to discuss the significance of leveraging data for informed decision-making and trend identification was truly enriching. The Global Blockchain Show in Dubai was impeccably organized, featuring stellar speakers who delivered immense value to all attendees.

Global Blockchain Show in Dubai, day 2. Watch my fireside chat at 11:30 if you are here.

Dubai blockchain week. Come and say high if you are here.

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Since June 2023, Solana has consistently outperformed Bitcoin, with 1 BTC dropping from 1880 SOL to 366 SOL. This underscores the significance of seeking altcoins that outperform Bitcoin, as their chances of performing extremely well in a bull run are high.$BTC $SOL

#Bitcoin and #Ethereum supply in profit is almost 100%. It is important to monitor if buying pressure from spot ETFs or retail investors outperforms the selling pressure from profit realisations.

12,776 BTC just flooded in, worth a staggering $794 million USD! This massive buy-in is sending Bitcoin prices soaring. Wall Street's got eyes on your Bitcoin! 💸

Who is the ultimate influencer on altcoins❓

The answer is global liquidity.

🔎Examining the link between total cryptocurrency market capitalisation (excl. BTC & ETH) and global liquidity reveals a strong positive correlation (0.78) between risky assets and global liquidity.

🏦As central banks' balance sheets grow, altcoins also grow, and vice versa. This emphasises the importance of watching global liquidity when entering a risk-on mode with altcoins.

Summary of the Bitcoin spot ETFs holding, inflows & outflows. It is crucial to monitor these numbers as if buying pressure from the newborn ETFs outgrows the selling pressure of Grayscale, and the bitcoin halving is around the corner, a supply and demand sock is imminent.