In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has been focused on two key questions: why did the implied volatility (IV) collapse, and why did the price rise again? We can find some clues by looking at the timeline of events.

It all started around 7:30 PM on August 8th. Before this, the drastic fluctuations in the BTC market the previous day had gradually pushed the overall implied volatility to a high point. While the price was stabilizing around 57,500 with slight adjustments, a large number of December and October put options were suddenly sold on the Deribit market. This caused the year-end IV to drop by 3% in a short time, leading to a significant downward shift in the entire Volatility Curve.

Source: SignalPlus Time Lapse IV / Historical IV

Source: SignalPlus Trade Volume by Expiry; Recent Block Trade

Source: Deribit （As of 9 AUG 8: 00 UTC）

Later, at 8:30 PM, the U.S. released a new round of initial jobless claims data, which showed the largest decline in nearly a year, alleviating concerns about an economic slowdown in the world’s largest economy. U.S. stocks rebounded strongly, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq closing up 1.76%, 2.3%, and 2.87%, respectively, and U.S. Treasury yields rose. As a risk asset highly correlated with the U.S. index, BTC’s price was also boosted, rising from 57,500 to over 60,000 dollars, once challenging the key resistance level of 62,000.

From a macro perspective, this week has been quite challenging for global investors. Liz Young Thomas from SoFi commented: “It’s volatile everywhere. We see how sensitive the market is to U.S. economic data, the broad impact of yen carry trades, and the habit of investors relying on rate cuts to solve all problems.”

In such a volatile market, anxiety and unease have gradually accumulated, and investor sentiment remains depressed, causing this usually low-importance data to trigger significant fluctuations. While the panic that started earlier this month may have been somewhat exaggerated, this data does not seem to have eased fears of a recession. JPMorgan’s Lakos-Bujas warned that the stock market is no longer a one-way upward trade but increasingly a two-way debate, involving downside risks to economic growth, the timing of Fed rate cuts, excessive positions, high valuations, and rising geopolitical uncertainties with the upcoming presidential election.”

Source: TradingView; SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

Additionally, after these two rounds of events, we observed that the rise in coin prices led to a recovery in Vol Skew. The massive sell-off on the put side significantly increased the slope of BTC from October to the end of the year, causing the 25dRR indicator to rise sharply within a local range. The volatility surface underwent a noticeable change overnight.

Source: SignalPlus

Data Source: SignalPlus， ETH Top Trade

Data Source: SignalPlus， BTC Top Trade