Key metrics: (11Nov 4pm HK -> 18Nov 4pm HK):
BTC/USD +13.0% ($81,200 -> $91,750) , ETH/USD -0.3% ($3,140 -> $3,130)BTC/USD Dec (year-end) ATM vol +5.2v (51.8-> 57.0), Dec 25d RR vol +2.7v (3.2 -> 5.9)

Sharp acceleration over the last week with any initial indicators of over-boughtness giving way to very powerful momentum. Market appeared to own fair bit of gamma around the 90k region as the market initially resisted this level a few times before attempting to break higher, but that move struggl

US equity markets gave back some of its recent gains (SPX -1.3%, Nasdaq -2.3% on Friday) on the back of extreme long positioning and worries over the continued climb in yield (10y nominals ~4.45%, real yields >2.15%). Furthermore, a late-week appearance by Chairman Powell suggested that the Fed is looking to slow down the pace rate cuts given the underlying strength in the economy, causing December rate-cut odds to drop to just 61%, versus a peak of nearly 2-cuts priced in during September.
“The

Key metrics: (4Nov 4pm HK -> 11Nov 4pm HK):
BTC/USD +18.4% ($68,600 -> $81,200) , ETH/USD +27.6% ($2,460 -> $3,140)BTC/USD Dec (year-end) ATM vol -6.2v (58.0-> 51.8), Dec 25d RR vol +0.1v (3.1 -> 3.2)
Spot Technical Outlook:

With Trump confirmed as the president, we tore through the $74k resistance level, putting in an 11% move between going in (Tuesday 4pm HKT) and the 8th Nov 4pm Expiry, extending up to our bullish election target of $76–78 region. Upward momentum has continued since and we c

While President-Elect Trump is still not slated to take office for another 2 months, his impact has been felt far and wide both in geopolitics and capital markets. Crypto made headlines as BTC charged above 80k before some US counties managed to finalize counting their ballots, with Blackrock’s BTC ETF (IBIT) seeing a record $1.1bln on Thursday, and even Ethereum recording the 3rd single highest single-day inflow in its short-history.

IBIT is now on track for the 3rd highest inflows across all

Key metrics: (28Oct 4pm HK -> 4Nov 4pm HK):
BTC/USD +0.15% ($68,500 -> $68,600) , ETH/USD -2.4% ($2,520 -> $2,460)BTC/USD Dec (year-end) ATM vol +3.7v (54.3-> 58.0), Dec 25d RR vol -0.6v (3.7 -> 3.1)
Spot Technical Outlook:

Initially it seemed that we had underestimated the potential for spot to break-out ahead of the election, when we made brief new highs on Wednesday. However, the test of the highs ultimately failed to follow through and spot retraced fairly aggressively, with $70k re-establi

After an acrimonious and volatile campaign, the long-awaited election is finally here. Macro assets everywhere are hyper focused (and perhaps overly focused) on the last minute fluctuations in polls, where polymarkets saw a large drop in Trump-odds from 67% down to 55%, moving in line with most other mainstream polls that are calling it a 50–50 bet.

The election focus distracted the market’s attention a bit from Friday’s NFP, which saw a massive miss as headlines came in at 12k vs 100k expected

Key metrics: (21Oct 4pm HK -> 28Oct 4pm HK):
BTC/USD flat ($68,500 -> $68,500) , ETH/USD -7.5% ($2,725 -> $2,520)BTC/USD Dec (year-end) ATM vol -1.6v (55.9-> 54.3), Dec 25d RR vol -0.6v (4.3 -> 3.7)
Spot Technical Outlook:

Spot market has been very contained over the last week, holding between 69.5k and 65k. We continue to see the market caught between the support of the broken long term flag and the resistance at 70.25k and so expect the market to hold within this range for the next few daysGi

Risk markets treaded water the past week as we head into the final stretch of the US election, with both parties bombarding mainstream media with last minute political drives, including an unprecedented 3-hour Trump-Rogan interview with 25M+ views on YouTube alone. Furthermore, perhaps in response to recent US pressures, a late Friday Isareli strike on Iran turned out to be more restrained than feared, offering Tehran a political exit-ramp as Iran has explicitly not responded to the strike throu

Key metrics: (7Oct 4pm HK -> 14Oct 4pm HK):
BTC/USD +1.2% ($63,500 -> $64,250) , ETH/USD +1.8% ($2,480 -> $2,525)BTC/USD Dec (year-end) ATM vol +1.4v (56.1-> 57.5), Dec 25d RR vol +0.6v (2.3 -> 2.9)

Price action remained choppy last week, but in general held within the 60–65k range last weekA break above 66–66.5k would represent a break of the top of the long term flag and this would open us up to ~70k initially but beyond that we could see a material move to the topside.On the downside, a brea

Risk-on sentiment continued in an otherwise muted week, with US equities, treasuries yields, USD FX, gold and BTC prices all grinding to interim or YTD highs. US data was robust with retail sales (+0.6% MoM in real terms, +0.7% MoM in control group) coming in above expectations and jobless claims holding steady and keeping the soft landing narrative alive.

Earnings season was also well received with US banks, Netflix, TSMC (+9.8%) all coming in well above expectations. The SPX saw its best winn

Key metrics: (7Oct 4pm HK -> 14Oct 4pm HK):
BTC/USD +1.2% ($63,500 -> $64,250) , ETH/USD +1.8% ($2,480 -> $2,525)BTC/USD Dec (year-end) ATM vol +1.4v (56.1-> 57.5), Dec 25d RR vol +0.6v (2.3 -> 2.9)

Price action remained choppy last week, but in general held within the 60–65k range last weekA break above 66–66.5k would represent a break of the top of the long term flag and this would open us up to ~70k initially but beyond that we could see a material move to the topside.On the downside, a brea

US markets saw relatively firmer data last week with both CPI and PPI coming in on the stronger side. Markets were initially confused by the data impact, but ultimately decided that the ‘core’ inflation trend remained intact and the curve steepening move continued on. US equities made new all time highs, with high beta names and FX breaking out further, as markets continue to expect a ~85%+ chance of a 25bp cut in December. Citi macro strategists are now calling for ‘max bullish equities’ while

Key metrics: (30Sep 4pm HK -> 7Oct 4pm HK):
BTC/USD flat ($63,500 -> $63,500) , ETH/USD -4.6% ($2,600 -> $2,480)BTC/USD Dec (year-end) ATM vol -0.7v (56.8-> 56.1), Dec 25d RR vol -0.4v (2.7 -> 2.3)
Spot Technical Outlook:

The long-term flag top resistance proved to be too strong to break — which remains our base case ahead of the US Elections next monthThe rejection at $65–66k, coupled with geopolitical escalation resulted in a test and subsequent break briefly of the previous range support at

A significantly stronger than forecast NFP raised significant questions on the Fed’s wisdom to cut 50bp last month, as the US economy added 254k new jobs (vs 150k expected), with the unemployment rate falling back down to 4.05% and average hourly earnings staying robust.

The fixed income reaction was furious — short-dated treasuries jumped 20bp as the yield curve bear flattened aggressively. 10y yields broke upside resistance at 3.93% and looks to be on the way to print above 4%, while terminal

Key metrics: (23Sep 4pm HK -> 30Sep 4pm HK):
BTC/USD flat ($63,500 -> $63,500) , ETH/USD -1.5% ($2,640 -> $2,600)BTC/USD Dec (year-end) ATM vol -2.6v (59.4-> 56.8), Dec 25d RR vol -0.5v (3.2 -> 2.7)
Spot Technical Outlook

The market was able to briefly rise above the key resistance levels of $65.2–66k, but the price action again faltered there and the first major test of the long term flag resistance has so far been rejectedThe range resistance here should operate as short term support for now

A soft US core PCE (and weak European CPIs) ended the risk-friendly week with a treasury bull curve steepening move, and equities (US + China) both hovering at cycle highs. On a 3m/3m basis, core inflation has settled back to around the 2% annualized level across both CPI and PCE, settling back down towards the Fed’s 2% long-term target and allowing the Fed to remain focused on the labour side of the dual mandate. Post CPI, a number of investment banks have reiterated their calls for a 50bp cut

The market’s expectation of interest rate cuts continues to fuel optimism in the cryptocurrency space. BTC ETFs are seeing steady capital inflows from major institutions, and recent news suggesting the approval of ETF terms has drawn significant attention from the community. While ETH has been lagging a bit in this area, with limited traffic from traditional finance and selling pressure from Grayscale’s ETHE, its recent price rise compared to BTC has been a hot topic. After briefly touching $2,7

Key metrics: (16Sep 4pm HK -> 23Sep 4pm HK):
BTC/USD +7.8% ($58,900 -> $63,500) , ETH/USD +14.5% ($2,305 -> $2,640)BTC/USD Dec (year-end) ATM vol -0.1v (59.5-> 59.4), Dec 25d RR vol +0.8v (2.4 -> 3.2)
Spot Technical Outlook

The short-term trading channel we discussed last week saw its support initially tested, after which spot was able to regain its footing and trended cleanly higher post FOMC, up to the range resistance level of $64–65k. Market has been flirting with this level for the last co

Look who’s back?

As we outlined in our quick-take on Thursday, Chairman Powell was ‘confidently dovish’ in the latest FOMC, and acted aggressively with a 50bp front-loaded cut while still advocating an economic soft-landing. The result was clear — a significant dovish impulse to celebrate the official start of a new Fed easing cycle, with risk markets taking ~12 hours to digest the message before driving equities to new all-time highs. What happened to the recession?

Fixed income was once agai

The day after the FOMC decided to lower interest rates, the Bank of Japan announced it would keep its rate policy unchanged. BTC continued its climb above $63,000 with a 2.33% intraday gain, but couldn’t break through the key resistance at $64,000. Meanwhile, ETH stole the show after facing criticism for weak price action. A midday rally pushed ETH past $2,500, closing at $2,561 (+5.05%). Despite no significant progress in ETF flow, ETH showed strong upward momentum. Going forward, it’ll be cruc