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A disappointing jobs report from the Labor Department sent US equities and cryptocurrencies tumbling. Job growth slowed and unemployment ticked higher than expected in July, increasing the likelihood of a September interest rate cut. Unemployment rose by 0.2% from June to 4.3% in July, the highest since October 2021, while nonfarm payrolls grew by only 114,000, falling short of the expected 185,000.
Market Reactions and Economic Indicators
Stocks initially reacted sharply, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes dropping 2.4% and 3.1%, respectively. Both indexes recovered slightly later, with the S&P 500 trading 2.1% lower and the Nasdaq Composite down 2.5% by publication time. Cryptocurrencies also saw steep declines, with Bitcoin losing over 4% and Ether dropping nearly 6%. Despite this, both pared losses slightly, with Bitcoin recovering to around $63,500, still 2.8% lower than its intraday high, and Ether hovering around $3,000, 1.7% above its intraday low.
Steve Clayton, head of equity funds, noted that this report came during a particularly tumultuous period for US stocks, compounding existing market headwinds. The unemployment rate now exceeds the Federal Open Market Committee's projections, sitting above their expected range of 4% to 4.1% by the end of 2024.
Economic Implications and Future Outlook
The Sahm rule recession indicator is now flashing red, suggesting the US economy might be heading for a downturn. According to the rule, a recession is indicated when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate exceeds the lowest three-month average in the past year by 0.5 or more, currently sitting at 0.53. However, Claudia Sahm, the rule's creator, cautioned that post-pandemic economic conditions might skew this data due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and government stimulus.
Conclusion
The disappointing jobs report has exacerbated market volatility, with significant declines in both stocks and cryptocurrencies. This development underscores the fragile state of the US economy, influenced by factors like increased labor force participation and an inverted yield curve, which signals potential recessionary pressures. As markets react to these economic indicators, investors should brace for continued uncertainty and potential further declines.