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BTC short-term holders’ cost line.

As of today, the average cost of short-term holders is roughly around the 67,000 mark. Overall, short-term holders are currently in a loss position. The cost of capital that has newly entered and bought in is getting lower and lower; high-cost holdings are being gradually absorbed or converted into long-term holdings.

From the current perspective, it’s more likely that the price will keep ranging and oscillating around the cost line. This cost line has a certain degree of pull for the price—meaning there’s a strong possibility that the price will make another pass to the 67,000 area. However, what will happen after reaching the 67,000 mark is something we can’t determine right now. The best we can say is: if in the future the price rises back above the 67,000 line and holds, then short-term holders may turn profitable and sell pressure could ease, making any rebound potentially more sustained, and possibly opening up more upside room.

We are currently in the stage where the “price is below short-term holders’ cost.” The market is still digesting the unrealized-loss positions. The area around $67,000 is an important level to watch.

Tonight at 2:00, the Federal Reserve’s July FOMC meeting minutes will be released. This is the most critical risk event for the markets this week.

At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% by a vote of 9 to 3, marking the fifth consecutive hold. Three regional Fed presidents voted against the decision, arguing for a 25-basis-point rate hike— the first time since September 2016 that three votes against were cast simultaneously. After the meeting, Fed Chair Waller clearly rejected describing this decision as a “pause,” saying, “This is just the beginning of the story.” He also emphasized that the Fed does not have a flexible inflation target—2% is the only target.

Since then, economic data has weakened across the board. July nonfarm payrolls rose by only 57,000. CPI year-on-year fell to 3.4%, and market pricing for a September rate hike has dropped sharply from 65% to 80% right after the meeting to roughly 30% to 40% now. In a Reuters survey, about 90% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged in September.

Tonight’s key is to see how large the hawkish faction revealed in the minutes is.

If the minutes show that most participants agree inflation is cooling and do not feel it’s time to hike, the probability of a September hike will likely be pushed down further, and BTC could hold above 65,000 and challenge higher levels.

If the minutes show deeper concern within the Fed about inflation persistence and more people moving closer to supporting a rate hike, then combined with the reality that the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasuries has surged to the highest level since 2007, and that Brent crude has returned to $94 because the Iran–Israel ceasefire deal has expired without reaching an agreement, the 35% probability of a rate hike could rise again, and BTC may retest 62,000, or even 60,000.

In short, after Waller takes office and sharply compresses forward guidance, the market will parse the minutes word by word for any clues about internal disagreements and the rate-hike threshold.

For now, BTC is consolidating around $64,500, waiting for this news. After the minutes are released, volatility will surge sharply.

The direction will depend on how the minutes describe inflation risks and the interest-rate path—not simply whether the Fed hikes or doesn’t hike.

Prices are rising, yet the open interest is clearly declining. What does this mean? When prices rise while open interest decreases, it is usually a market driven by short covering (buying to close) that results from shorts being liquidated, rather than a large influx of new long positions.

Such a rally often lacks sustained momentum and is relatively “hollow.” If the open interest does not expand again afterward, prices are likely to fall once more. So the strength is in question—watch whether open interest keeps pace.

This round of BTC’s rally is driven by two engines, but whether it can truly break through is still a question mark.

The first core catalyst is a clear rebound in ETF capital flows.

Yesterday, total net inflows into BTC spot ETFs were $189 million. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed $144 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC saw inflows of $23.92 million. The day before that, it recorded a massive net inflow of $298 million—turning around the prior streak of consecutive days of outflows.

The second core catalyst is short-squeeze pressure in the derivatives market.

Data shows that excessive concentration of short positions is a direct trigger for this rally. On the day, the liquidation volume for BTC shorts reached 637 BTC, the highest single-day level since July 21. With overall trading still relatively thin, overly concentrated short positions caused the price to rise rapidly in a short period of time.

But whether $65,000 can truly hold and break upward depends on three questions.

1) Spot demand remains weak. Some institutions have defined this move as a “liquidity trap with low trading volume.” The futures market accounts for most of the trading activity, while spot investors overall remain less active. As of August 19, the ETF inflow size dropped from $298 million the previous day to $189 million—clear signs of reduced volume.

2) The average cost basis for short-term holders is around $68,700. The market generally views this level as a strong resistance. Short-term holders who are still underwater may choose to sell on rebounds to reduce losses.

3) Macro headwinds are still in place. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury continues to climb, and geopolitically the situation between the U.S. and Iran keeps fluctuating. Although the SEC has put forward a new regulatory proposal for crypto assets, the CLARITY Act being advanced by Congress has stalled.

$65,000 is back again, but whether this is a genuine trend reversal or just another brief rebound ultimately depends on whether spot demand can truly recover—not on a temporary over-pump driven by shorts getting forced to cover.

【2026.8.17】Thoughts

First, look at the whale address section in the chart. Today there was a net outflow of 157 coins. This is not good—it’s a hindrance to the bulls’ sustained push. Last week’s overall data was also rather lackluster in its impact; net inflows and outflows were roughly balanced, but overall it still reflects an absorption process. As for the spot ETF, it was in a net outflow state last week, and the number was not small. If by the end of this week the ETF is still in a net outflow state, that would be a bit ominous—at least it would indicate that the price has started to fall again. If no new funds are added on the exchange and capital is not flowing in, the market can’t rise.

Back to the chart: based on the current trend, my views are as follows:

1、In a continuous rebound. The key resistance zone above is 【64300-64700】. Only if the price can break through the 64700 level effectively will there be a chance to open up upside space—making it much more likely to resume a strong upward oscillation. Conversely, if the price hits resistance around 64700 and falls back, even though we don’t know whether it’s a drop or just a normal pullback downward, the possibility of continued downside might be higher.

2、The key support below is in the 【63000-63300】 range. If the price can adjust down to here overnight, I think it would likely be a low-buy opportunity. Worth trying. Only if the price breaks back below the 62700 level could it potentially continue to move downward. But even if it does move down, I believe the downside space is limited—it might just retrace to around the 62000 level.

In summary, these are for reference only.

BTC dormant supply hits a new all-time high.

More than 3.56 million BTC that have not moved for over 10 years (which can be considered “lost” or permanently dormant supply) have reached 3.56 million coins, accounting for about 17.7% of the circulating supply—also setting a record high. Over the past 30 days alone, more than 14,000 BTC have been added to this long-term dormancy category. This trend is continuing to reduce BTC’s actual available float.

At the same time, the supply held by long-term holders is also rising in tandem. Long-term holders (positions held for more than 155 days) now hold 16.64 million BTC, representing 83% of the circulating supply—again reaching an all-time high. Put simply: out of every 6 BTC, 5 have not been moved in the past five months.

From the supply side, this is truly bullish. The amount of BTC that can actually circulate is getting smaller, and new supply is continuously being locked up. Any incremental demand will therefore have a greater marginal impact on price.

Recently, Zhao Changpeng also said that 10% to 20% of mined BTC may have been permanently lost, and BTC is becoming a truly deflationary asset.

But on the demand side, things may not be that simple.

A new all-time high in long-term holder supply should not be interpreted simply as a bullish accumulation signal. More often, it reflects cooling trading activity and weakening demand, rather than new money moving in aggressively.

While a new record for dormant supply provides strong scarcity support on the supply side, the biggest problem in the current market is that demand is too weak. Four layers of selling pressure are happening at the same time: ongoing ETF outflows, retail capitulation, miner sell-offs, and Strategy’s reduction in holdings. Scarcity can only translate into upward price momentum when demand recovers.

BTC is currently struggling in the $62,000–$64,000 range. The scarcity narrative is the long-term trump card, but in the short term, price still depends on when buying returns.

As of the week of August 12, global equity funds recorded net inflows of $18.62 billion, marking the 12th consecutive week of net capital attracted, bringing total inflows to $237.57 billion.

The key driver behind these inflows is the cooling of expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. The July nonfarm payroll data came in surprisingly weak, inflation slowed, and the PPI month-over-month reading was unchanged. The combined effect of these three factors caused market bets on a September rate hike to drop significantly. Strong corporate earnings further boosted risk appetite.

However, the money is not flowing into BTC—it is accelerating its exit.

There is clear structural divergence in where the funds are going. European equity funds saw inflows of $13.5 billion in a single week, U.S. equity funds received $2.58 billion, gold and precious metals funds attracted $1.6 billion, bond funds gained $18.0 billion, and money market funds brought in $28.4 billion.

With $18.6 billion flowing into the stock market, it indicates that global risk appetite is indeed recovering. But BTC is being excluded. Instead, capital is choosing traditional stocks, bonds, and gold rather than crypto assets. Some institutions have noted that risk capital is shifting from BTC toward U.S. stocks and AI-related assets.

BTC is currently struggling in the $62,000–$64,000 range and has been unable to effectively reclaim $64,000 for multiple days in a row. As long as this “stocks rise, but BTC doesn’t follow” pattern persists, BTC is unlikely to develop a sustained, trend-driven move. The real turning point will come when capital returns from stocks and gold to the crypto market. Until then, BTC can only continue to burn momentum within a limited, supply-demand game.

BTC on-chain profit-taking coin supply ratio

Latest signal — the current profit supply ratio has rapidly fallen to around 50%, nearing the historical green bottom zone (levels seen in the late stages of the 2018, 2019, and 2022 bear markets). The red high zone (90%+) has repeatedly corresponded to market tops, while the green low zone often appears during the bottom-building stage after a deep correction.

A sharp reduction in profit-taking coin volumes indicates that many late-cycle buyers at high levels have turned into loss-making positions, and the market is undergoing a thorough washout. Historically, after this kind of positioning, the probability of a meaningful medium- to long-term rebound increases significantly. Continue to monitor whether this indicator stabilizes around 50%.

【2026.8.14】Thoughts

First look at the whale addresses section in the chart. Yesterday, there was a net inflow of 1247 coins, which indicates that during the price decline, there is some capital stepping in and taking support. However, this explains little on its own. Unless it can continue or expand further. What’s also interesting is that the spot ETF actually saw a net outflow of 2066 coins yesterday. These two pieces of data show completely opposite performance, suggesting that there is quite a lot of disagreement in the market. Of course, from the price action, it is clear that even if anything, the bulls are temporarily yielding to the bears. The market is, for now, a bearish one.

Back to the chart: based on the current trend, I have a few views:

1) Still range-bound but bearish. It hasn’t finished falling yet. Even if there’s a rebound in the middle, it would only be a rebound. It probably won’t flip to bullish easily. Unless something extremely major and positive happens to trigger a move, but that possibility is very low. The support below is around the 62,800 line—this was already mentioned yesterday. If it breaks below there, then we’ll see the 62,000 line. As for whether there will be even lower prices? Yes, the 61,000 line. But I think we should wait and see before that—after an effective rebound around the 62,800 line or the 62,000 line, then we can discuss the next steps. In short: be cautious with low-buys; shorts are free to enter.

2) The key resistance above is the range 【63,600-63,800】. The risk-reward for attempting shorts here is relatively better. You can try to take advantage of it. Of course, it’s also possible that you won’t get this opportunity.

3) Only if price effectively breaks above the 64,500 line can the bulls possibly reclaim the ground. Otherwise, the bulls are just trash. Don’t pick the wrong side.

In summary, just for reference.

BTC breaks below the $63,000 key psychological level, with a low of $62,800. Spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019, leaving the market in an extremely quiet, compressed state.

The core driver of the decline is waning buy-side demand.

Rekt Capital issued a key warning: BTC’s buying momentum in August has clearly weakened, and the 200-week simple moving average—an important long-term support level—is starting to wobble. In July, strong buying pressure still existed near the 200-week moving average, but after entering August, market sentiment shifted from rebound to wait-and-see, and the effectiveness of support has noticeably deteriorated.

On-chain data is also flashing red.

Large holders, often referred to as “whales,” reduced their positions over the past week, while at the same time the amount of BTC flowing into exchanges has increased—this type of fund flow often signals that selling pressure is building. One whale even added to its BTC short position for the fourth time; its total short exposure has already surpassed $110 million.

ETF flows have also worsened.

Yesterday, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a net outflow of $131 million, marking the second straight trading day of capital leaving. ARKB led with a $58.81 million outflow. Previously, a five-day streak of net inflows was reversed.

Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran are continuing to suppress risk appetite.

Iran has taken a hard line, claiming that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iran’s control and management, and that any vessel without permission may not pass through. It also claims it has replenished missile and drone inventories beyond usage levels. Escalation of geopolitical conflict often boosts demand for safe-haven assets while weighing on market sentiment.

The macro picture is also not optimistic.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has continued climbing, approaching 5%. BTC and real interest rates often show an inverse relationship. The probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in September has risen to 78%, but expectations for rate cuts have repeatedly failed to materialize, and hopes for near-term liquidity easing are unlikely to be realized.

After $63,000 is lost, the market’s attention turns to the $60,000 area as the next key support level. $65,000 remains the resistance level that bulls must reclaim.

Although BTC has been struggling near $64,000, the market has long been strewn with the dead.

On August 1 alone, short-term holders transferred more than 32,000 BTC to exchanges while still at a loss, marking the largest single-day capitulation wave in nearly 30 days. Retail investors are selling off, exchange trading volume has fallen to a three-year low, and the Fear & Greed Index is only 27—market sentiment is extremely fearful.

On the other hand, institutions and miners are also continuously offloading.

Last week, Strategy sold another 1,690 BTC, cashing out $108.6 million. With this, its total BTC sold this year has reached 6,948 coins. Once the biggest long that “only buys and never sells,” it has now become a sell-pressure source that cannot be ignored.

Publicly listed mining companies have sold a combined ~28,000 BTC this year, worth $1.78 billion. MARA’s reserves fell 29% to 35,577 BTC. Miners’ average mining cost has risen to $74,300—far above the current coin price—forcing them to dump as the only choice to survive.

Meanwhile, on Trump’s media side.

In Q2, the company suffered a massive loss of $238 million, with over $190 million coming from unrealized losses on BTC and Cronos. The company announced it had essentially abandoned the cryptocurrency space; in Q2 it reduced holdings by 65 BTC and shifted to a paid data business with Truth API.

Interestingly, when the news broke, there were cheers below, with the market treating it as a cancer in the crypto world. A presidential media company losing money on BTC and then announcing its exit is a severe blow to the psychological “country backing” narrative for BTC.

In short: retail is cutting, miners are selling, Strategy is reducing, and Trump is withdrawing. With four waves of selling pressure hitting at the same time, holding BTC above 64,000 is already no small feat. CPI didn’t turn into an upside move—this isn’t because the market doesn’t understand; it’s because the sell orders are simply too heavy. Don’t expect a V-shaped reversal in the short term. Just being able to let the market slowly digest the sell pressure at this level would be the best outcome.

BTC liquidity cycle chart latest signals!

The current liquidity index is rapidly dropping to historically extremely low levels, highly similar to the late stages of the 2015, 2018, and 2022 bear markets. At the same time, the realized market cap is still high (about 1.2T), suggesting that capital is not withdrawing on a large scale, but instead entering a state of “low liquidity + high lock-up.”

Historically, this combination often appears near the bottom of the cycle. Short-term discomfort may intensify, but in the medium to long term, supply contraction will build up momentum for the next upcycle. Watch whether the liquidity index stops falling and starts to rebound.

Last night the CPI data came out. Inflation really did fall, but BTC didn’t rise—instead it kept dropping. From above $64,400 it was smashed down again to around $63,300. Damn it—where’s the good news everyone promised?

The data itself is fine.

July CPI rose 3.4% year over year, and core CPI rose 2.5% year over year. On a month-over-month basis, CPI was up 0.2%. All of it matched market expectations perfectly.

Inflation fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, and the direction is good. The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from about 47% before the data to around 45% after. US stock futures jumped straight up, and gold broke above $4,440.

But BTC didn’t follow. The reasons could be fourfold.

First, the market ran ahead of time. Didn’t you notice how before the data was even released, the price turned from weak to strong and surged without looking back? Right before the release, it was pulled from around $63,500 to above $64,400. At the time, I thought it was strange—could the late-night data be a good thing? So when the data finally came out, it only confirmed expectations. The “surprise” was already gone; the bag was already bought. After the release, it’s just profit-taking.

Second, liquidity in the crypto market is too weak. Trading volume is down to the lowest level in three years. Miners are selling, Strategy is selling, and the buy pressure from ETF inflows has been continuously absorbed away. Even if macro good news reaches crypto, it gets directly digested by the market’s internal liquidity drought.

Third, Iran stirred things up again. At the same time CPI was released, news circulated that Iran denied actively discussing extending the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. The moment geopolitical uncertainty flares up, risk appetite gets immediately suppressed.

Fourth, the CPI itself is actually not “that good.” It only met market expectations—it didn’t beat them meaningfully. Also, 3.4% inflation is still far from the Fed’s 2% target. The probability of a September hike fell a bit, but 45% is still not low. What the market wants is “certainty of no hike,” not “maybe no hike.”

In short: the good news isn’t strong enough, and selling pressure has never really stopped. When it should be able to rise, it can’t—this is the most concerning signal right now. BTC is still stuck moving around in the $62,000–$66,000 range box. When it breaks out depends on when the funding/liquidity conditions genuinely start to warm up.

Settlement heatmap showing the price ranges where large-scale forced liquidations (settlements) may occur in the future. The brighter the color (from dark blue → teal green → yellow-orange), the more leveraged positions have accumulated at that price level, indicating a higher liquidation intensity.

The current price is consolidating around 64,000.

Key liquidation zone above: approximately 64,500–64,700, where there’s a brighter teal/green band indicating a higher liquidation density.

Key liquidation zone below: approximately 63,300–63,500, with a clearly visible yellow-orange high-density liquidation band.

If we look at it purely from this liquidation perspective, even if the price is going to drop, it may be more consistent with the “dog trader” style to first move up and then down. So I think today is likely to be pushed upward first, followed by a rebound. After it meets resistance and falls back, there is still a fairly good chance it turns into a downtrend. For now, I won’t be overly optimistic.