Looking at Bitcoin's price action since November 2024, a classic Head & Shoulders pattern can be observed. Drawing the neckline based on the shoulders suggests that the completion of this pattern depends on whether the $91k level can hold as support. With the price increase from the neckline to the ATH ($108k) being approximately +18%, the pattern implies a potential -18% drop if completed, which would target the $76k region. If the $91k level breaks with significant trading volume, the pattern’s confirmation could lead to intensified downward momentum.
On-chain data also underscores the importance of the $91k level. Currently, the Realized Price for 1-week to 1-month holders at $98.1k has already been breached, leaving the $89k level, representing 1-month to 3-month holders, as the next key support. Should the price fall below $89k, the likelihood of increased selling pressure to mitigate losses grows, potentially exacerbating the decline.
Moreover, the weighted average of the Realized Price for STHs (Short-Term Holders) across 1-week to 6-month cohorts, accounting for their Realized Cap, is approximately $88.7k. This aligns closely with the $89k level for 1-month to 3-month holders. While this does not precisely match the neckline at $91k, any dip toward the $90k range warrants caution as further corrections could follow.
Written by Yonsei_dent
