$ETH rebounded to the resistance level, be careful of the pullback risk
Today, there were two major positive developments: the Federal Reserve has basically confirmed a rate cut in December, and the Bank of Japan has basically confirmed no rate hike in December, eliminating macroeconomic uncertainties for December. This is favorable for the further rise of the crypto market and increases the likelihood of $ETH breaking through the December 6 high and continuing to rise this month.
However, $ETH has currently rebounded to the resistance area and has pulled back from the previous short-term trend line. Therefore, there is a certain risk of a pullback.
The next market development for $ETH has three main possibilities:
Scenario 1: Continue to rise and break through the December 6 high directly;
Scenario 2: Consolidate in the range of 3500-4000 for a period of time and then break through the December 6 high;
Scenario 3: After the rebound, drop below the 3500 support level.
Based on the current market conditions and macro environment, I personally think the order of occurrence probability is Scenario 2 > Scenario 1 > Scenario 3.
Previously, $ETH also went through a consolidation period from January 15 to November 20 before experiencing a significant rise from November 21 to December 6.
So even if I am relatively optimistic about the $ETH market, I also need to be cautious about risk control; this position is not suitable for overly aggressive actions.
