The cryptocurrency market has been following a pattern of alternating cycles of growth and decline, with an overall upward trend in prices.
In the current bull cycle that began in January 2023, Bitcoin has experienced significant gains in both duration and price. With a substantial influx of new investments as well as additional funds from existing investors, it is reasonable to expect that the market is now in the latter stages of this cycle.
Notably, the percentage of Bitcoin traded for less than a month (based on realized market cap - UTXO) has reached 36%. Although this is considerably lower than the peaks of past cycles, the long-term trend remains downward, which suggests that the market is likely to reach its cycle peak by Q1 2025, or at the latest by Q2 2025.
However, rather than a single spike, this ratio is likely to rise sharply 2 to 4 times, typically leading to significant overheating followed by a bear cycle. Therefore, expectations for substantial gains in both Bitcoin and altcoins should still be kept open.
Nevertheless, from a conservative standpoint and with risk management in mind, caution is advised. For this reason, I am planning to gradually sell my holdings.
Written by Crypto Dan
