MAGA (TRUMP), the leading Donald Trump-themed memecoin by market capitalization, has wiped out all the gains it made following the assassination attempt on the former United States president on July 13. Despite this setback, technicals show potential for a significant rebound, particularly with Trump's upcoming fundraiser at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville on July 27.
MAGA price eyes 'Trump pump' in July
On July 19, MAGA dropped by 7.20% to $6.21, almost the same price before the rally that preceded the Trump shooting a week ago. The drop to pre-rally levels could indicate that the market's reaction to the event was temporary and speculative rather than based on any fundamental changes.
However, MAGA's recent pump-and-dump appears to be part of an inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern. This technical setup is characterized by forming three troughs—with the middle one (head) deeper than the other two (shoulders)—atop a common neckline resistance.
As of July 19, the memecoin had formed the pattern's right shoulder halfway and was eyeing a rebound toward its neckline resistance at around $9.50. As a rule, an IH&S pattern resolves when the price breaks above the resistance and rises by as much as the maximum distance between the head and the neckline.
Therefore, MAGA may initially target the neckline resistance at $9.50 by the end of July, coinciding with Trump's scheduled appearance at Bitcoin 2024, one of the US's largest cryptocurrency conferences.
This event enhances the likelihood of an inverse head and shoulders (IH&S) breakout for MAGA, setting the stage for a further price rally toward $20.30 in the days leading up to the US presidential election in November. Thus, this represents a potential 200% increase from current levels.
Conversely, a drop below the shoulder's trough at around $6.38 risks invalidating the entire bullish setup, pushing MAGA's price toward its local bottom target of approximately $4.50, down 15% from the current price.
Rate cut prospects in September boost MAGA's outlook
MAGA's upside outlook picks further cues from an increasing bets on an interest rate cut in September.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has eased to 2.6%, and the previously overheated labor market has cooled to pre-pandemic levels. Fed officials continue to describe the labor market as strong, albeit acknowledging a potential turning point marked by a steady decline in vacancies and a gradual rise in unemployment.
"I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted," Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated on July 17. He described the labor market as being in the "sweet spot" but emphasized the need for the Fed to maintain this balance.
“There is more upside risk to unemployment than we have seen for a long time,” Waller added.
Lower interest rates can increase investor appetite for higher-risk investments, driving up demand and prices for speculative assets like MAGA. This resembles Dogecoin's explosive surge during the near-zero interest rates in 2020-2021.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.