La douleur maximale pour les positions courtes à court terme | Alphractal sur Binance Square

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La douleur maximale pour les positions courtes à court terme est d'environ 98 000 $ USD.
Un moment où la plupart des traders fortement endettés seront affectés de manière négative.
Alphractal

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The sentiment on Twitter ("X") and crypto market news remain very positive. People are not posting negative content, which indicates that investors are not fearful, even with the recent market downturn, particularly Bitcoin's drop, fluctuating between $108k and $92k USD. The market typically turns pessimistic when public issues drive people to share negative posts, such as regulations, exchange problems, network failures, FUD about stablecoins and BTC, among other topics. When sentiment becomes highly negative, there is a high probability that Bitcoin forms price bottoms. This happens a few times a year, offering excellent buying opportunities. Alphractal

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Daily and Weekly Open Interest Delta Turn Positive for Bitcoin This indicates an increase in leveraged exposure on the last day of 2024. End-of-year speculation often creates numerous trading opportunities or marks a period of growing interest in long positions. Typically, when the Open Interest Delta turns positive and starts to grow, it is highly likely that Bitcoin's price will also rise. However, it is crucial to monitor whether Market Makers start unloading their positions, which could lead to further price declines. Alphractal

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A simple and smart way to do DCA in Bitcoin is by buying only when the price is below all daily moving averages. In this chart, the moving averages range from 7 periods to 720, covering both short and long-term periods. Alphractal

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Analysis of Bitcoin Price Variation Between Christmas and New Year's Eve: The price variation of Bitcoin during the period between Christmas and New Year's Eve shows a mixed behavior over the years, with some periods recording appreciation and others showing a decline. So far, the price of Bitcoin has decreased by -4.35% since December 25th, suggesting that the trend may be negative for the turn of the year, based on historical patterns. Negative Variations Observed:Looking at the transition periods to the new year, we can observe that in some years, the turn of the year was marked by significant declines, such as in the cases of: 🔸2012-2013 🔸2014-2015 🔸2017-2018 🔸2019-2020 🔸2021-2022 These periods exhibited a negative trend in Bitcoin prices, with market behavior reflecting volatility and uncertainties typical of year-end. Positive and Modest Variations:On the other hand, in some years, Bitcoin showed positive performance or modest variations: The turn of the year in 2013-2014 and 2015-2016, for example, saw slight appreciation. The worst decline occurred during the transition from 2019 to 2020, with a decrease of -3.2%, which was still a more modest variation compared to other sharp drops. Conclusion: Based on the historical data, the turn of the year for Bitcoin tends to show negative volatility in many years, but with modest variations in others. The negative trend observed so far, with a decrease of -4.35%, suggests that the end of 2024 may follow a pattern similar to previous years, where the turn of the year was marked by a decline. Alphractal #NewYear2025 #Christmas #Performance

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The indicator measuring the total balance of cryptocurrencies held by short-term holders (up to one month) has risen. Historically, this increase often signals basic euphoria, which tends to coincide with local tops in Bitcoin's price. This reflects heightened speculative activity or the entry of new investors into the market, potentially leading to temporary overbought conditions. Currently, there are over 3.19 million addresses in this category, representing approximately 5.9% of all Bitcoin addresses on the network. However, when analyzing historical data, it becomes clear that the indicator is still far from reaching the high levels observed in previous cycles, suggesting that the market, despite the increase, has not yet reached a point of extreme euphoria. Alphractal

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