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NOSTR WALLET CONNECT: A BITCOIN APPLICATION COLLABORATION LAYERBitcoin Magazine - Bitcoin News, Articles and Expert Insights homeNostr Wallet Connect: A Bitcoin Application Collaboration LayerNOSTR WALLET CONNECT: A BITCOIN APPLICATION COLLABORATION LAYERSHINOBI48 MINUTES AGOAs the complexity of Bitcoin software and applications using Bitcoin grows, the need for a simple coordination mechanism for different applications to interact grows as well.Going into the future of Bitcoin adoption and development there is one issue of software interacting that is coming to the forefront of roadblocks developers must deal with: compatibility. As applications and protocols in this space become more complex and featureful in order to meet the needs of actual users and use cases, this presents a dilemma that fundamentally has only two real answers; either an application or wallet must internally integrate every protocol and feature necessary to meet the requirements of its purpose, or different applications must be able to talk to each other.One example of where this issue crops up is the integration of Lightning into different applications and software tools. Lightning is a very complicated protocol stack to implement, involving numerous sub-protocols dictating how to coordinate and process updates to the state of a Lightning channel. This involves the transaction structure for each channel state and what it is enforcing, the order in which each step of crafting and signing new transactions is conducted to guarantee safety of user funds, and functions to watch the blockchain to react in the appropriate way automatically if invalid states are ever submitted to the blockchain.This is a lot of complexity for a single application developer to take on themselves directly integrating to their project. The obvious conclusion if that requires too much effort is to depend on already produced software handling the problem of implementing Lightning, and simply build your application to talk to that external software. That leads to the next problem: what if your application’s users don’t use that particular Lightning implementation or wallet?Even by outsourcing that functionality of an app the development team still hasn’t fully escaped the complexity problem. While they don’t have to fully implement Lightning on their own, a developer taking this route now has to handle incorporating API support for any Lightning wallet the user of their application could potentially be using. This necessitates keeping up with any changes or alterations to multiple Lightning wallets, their API, how the internal features of that wallet works and which ones they support. Not keeping up with any changes in a particular wallet would break their application for users of that wallet.Some standardized mechanism needs to exist for software on both sides of that gap to simply be able to implement that one thing for all of these different tools to talk to each other. This would allow each application developer, and each Lightning wallet developer, to all simply integrate and maintain one single protocol that would enable their applications to communicate with each other.Nostr Wallet Connect is a protocol making the attempt at being a truly generalized mechanism for fulfilling this need. When seeking to embed Lightning payments into Nostr, all of these complexity issues arriving from how to do it cropped up.LIGHTNING AND NWCThe team behind Amethyst, a Nostr client, and Alby, the web based Lightning wallet, created NWC in order to solve the problem of Nostr users wishing to integrate Lightning into their Nostr experience without having to use a special purpose wallet. The application/protocol is based on Nostr’s identity architecture where every message (event) sent over Nostr is signed by a cryptographic keypair functioning as your identity on Nostr. This allows an application to simply generate a Nostr keypair, and from that alone have a cryptographic authentication mechanism to use in communicating with an external Bitcoin wallet to fulfill the functionality of the app.[INSERT INFO HERE]Using the keypair to register the external application with the Lightning wallet, the application can now ping your wallet to initiate a payment. The specification currently supports paying BOLT 11 invoices, making keysend payments (invoiceless payments made to a node’s public key), paying multiple invoices simultaneously, generating an invoice to present to someone else to pay you, and a few other functionalities to allow payment history and wallet balance queries from the external application.All of this is coordinated over Nostr, allowing for a very redundant means of communication not dependent on a single centralized messaging mechanism or the user needing to depend on complicated software such as Tor or other protocols to facilitate the network connection between an application and wallet software or infrastructure running on their home network. Nostr also supports encrypted direct messages, meaning the communication between the wallet and the application is entirely private, revealing no details about payments being coordinated to the Nostr relays used to communicate.On the wallet side of the NWC bridge, security restrictions can be implemented to prevent the external application from having unfettered access to wallet funds in the case the Nostr key used to communicate with the wallet was compromised. Restrictions on the amounts allowed to be spent, as well as the frequency of payments, are configurable on the wallet side of the connection.NWC is useful for far more than simply integrating Lightning into Nostr applications as well. The entire design philosophy of Nostr itself as a protocol was centered around keeping it simple enough that the entire protocol could be easily implemented correctly by any developer with minimal time and resources. Applications that have nothing to do with Nostr can easily integrate NWC or similar protocols with almost no overhead or complexity to address the underlying issues of how to connect a Bitcoin wallet with their application without having to build it directly into the app.BEYOND LIGHTNINGThe potential for a protocol like NWC to provide massive value to wallet and application developers goes far beyond integrating Lightning wallets into special purpose applications. The entire long term direction of interacting with Bitcoin, short of some mind blowing fundamental breakthrough no one has yet realized, is towards interactive protocols between multiple users.Multiparty coinpools are a perfect example. Most of the specific design proposals like Ark or Timeout trees are built around a central coordinating party or service provider, which can easily facilitate a means of message passing between users wallets, but this hamstrings the design space with a single point of failure. If a hundred users are packed into a coinpool together on top of a single UTXO, the security model is based around each user having a pre-signed pathway to withdraw their coins unilaterally on-chain. This mechanism can be exercised in the event of any failure or disappearance of the coordinator to ensure their funds are not lost, but this is the least efficient way to handle such a worst case scenario.If users were able to find a mechanism to communicate with each other in the absence of the service provider or coordinator, much more efficient on-chain exits could be achieved by using the larger group multisig to migrate their funds elsewhere with a much more efficient (and therefore cheaper) on-chain footprint. NWC and Nostr are a perfect fit for such a scenario.Collaborative multisignature wallets between multiple parties could also benefit from such a protocol. In combination with standards like PSBT, a simple Nostr communication mechanism could drastically simplify the complexity of different wallets with multisig support coordinating transaction signing in a smooth and user friendly way.Discreet Log Contracts (DLC) are another amazing use for such a protocol. The entire DLC scheme relies on both parties being able to access oracle signatures to unilaterally close a contract correctly if both parties will not cooperate to settle it collaboratively. Nostr is the perfect mechanism for oracles to broadcast these signatures, and allow for a simple subscription to their Nostr key in users wallets to automatically track and acquire signatures when broadcast by oracles.As time goes on and more applications and protocols are built on top of Bitcoin with the requirement of interactivity between users, and between different applications, a general purpose communication mechanism to facilitate that without relying on a single point of failure is going to be sorely needed.Nostr is the perfect underlying protocol to facilitate that given its incredible simplicity and the redundancy of a large set of relays to utilize. NWC is the perfect example of that being a viable solution.

NOSTR WALLET CONNECT: A BITCOIN APPLICATION COLLABORATION LAYER

Bitcoin Magazine - Bitcoin News, Articles and Expert Insights homeNostr Wallet Connect: A Bitcoin Application Collaboration LayerNOSTR WALLET CONNECT: A BITCOIN APPLICATION COLLABORATION LAYERSHINOBI48 MINUTES AGOAs the complexity of Bitcoin software and applications using Bitcoin grows, the need for a simple coordination mechanism for different applications to interact grows as well.Going into the future of Bitcoin adoption and development there is one issue of software interacting that is coming to the forefront of roadblocks developers must deal with: compatibility. As applications and protocols in this space become more complex and featureful in order to meet the needs of actual users and use cases, this presents a dilemma that fundamentally has only two real answers; either an application or wallet must internally integrate every protocol and feature necessary to meet the requirements of its purpose, or different applications must be able to talk to each other.One example of where this issue crops up is the integration of Lightning into different applications and software tools. Lightning is a very complicated protocol stack to implement, involving numerous sub-protocols dictating how to coordinate and process updates to the state of a Lightning channel. This involves the transaction structure for each channel state and what it is enforcing, the order in which each step of crafting and signing new transactions is conducted to guarantee safety of user funds, and functions to watch the blockchain to react in the appropriate way automatically if invalid states are ever submitted to the blockchain.This is a lot of complexity for a single application developer to take on themselves directly integrating to their project. The obvious conclusion if that requires too much effort is to depend on already produced software handling the problem of implementing Lightning, and simply build your application to talk to that external software. That leads to the next problem: what if your application’s users don’t use that particular Lightning implementation or wallet?Even by outsourcing that functionality of an app the development team still hasn’t fully escaped the complexity problem. While they don’t have to fully implement Lightning on their own, a developer taking this route now has to handle incorporating API support for any Lightning wallet the user of their application could potentially be using. This necessitates keeping up with any changes or alterations to multiple Lightning wallets, their API, how the internal features of that wallet works and which ones they support. Not keeping up with any changes in a particular wallet would break their application for users of that wallet.Some standardized mechanism needs to exist for software on both sides of that gap to simply be able to implement that one thing for all of these different tools to talk to each other. This would allow each application developer, and each Lightning wallet developer, to all simply integrate and maintain one single protocol that would enable their applications to communicate with each other.Nostr Wallet Connect is a protocol making the attempt at being a truly generalized mechanism for fulfilling this need. When seeking to embed Lightning payments into Nostr, all of these complexity issues arriving from how to do it cropped up.LIGHTNING AND NWCThe team behind Amethyst, a Nostr client, and Alby, the web based Lightning wallet, created NWC in order to solve the problem of Nostr users wishing to integrate Lightning into their Nostr experience without having to use a special purpose wallet. The application/protocol is based on Nostr’s identity architecture where every message (event) sent over Nostr is signed by a cryptographic keypair functioning as your identity on Nostr. This allows an application to simply generate a Nostr keypair, and from that alone have a cryptographic authentication mechanism to use in communicating with an external Bitcoin wallet to fulfill the functionality of the app.[INSERT INFO HERE]Using the keypair to register the external application with the Lightning wallet, the application can now ping your wallet to initiate a payment. The specification currently supports paying BOLT 11 invoices, making keysend payments (invoiceless payments made to a node’s public key), paying multiple invoices simultaneously, generating an invoice to present to someone else to pay you, and a few other functionalities to allow payment history and wallet balance queries from the external application.All of this is coordinated over Nostr, allowing for a very redundant means of communication not dependent on a single centralized messaging mechanism or the user needing to depend on complicated software such as Tor or other protocols to facilitate the network connection between an application and wallet software or infrastructure running on their home network. Nostr also supports encrypted direct messages, meaning the communication between the wallet and the application is entirely private, revealing no details about payments being coordinated to the Nostr relays used to communicate.On the wallet side of the NWC bridge, security restrictions can be implemented to prevent the external application from having unfettered access to wallet funds in the case the Nostr key used to communicate with the wallet was compromised. Restrictions on the amounts allowed to be spent, as well as the frequency of payments, are configurable on the wallet side of the connection.NWC is useful for far more than simply integrating Lightning into Nostr applications as well. The entire design philosophy of Nostr itself as a protocol was centered around keeping it simple enough that the entire protocol could be easily implemented correctly by any developer with minimal time and resources. Applications that have nothing to do with Nostr can easily integrate NWC or similar protocols with almost no overhead or complexity to address the underlying issues of how to connect a Bitcoin wallet with their application without having to build it directly into the app.BEYOND LIGHTNINGThe potential for a protocol like NWC to provide massive value to wallet and application developers goes far beyond integrating Lightning wallets into special purpose applications. The entire long term direction of interacting with Bitcoin, short of some mind blowing fundamental breakthrough no one has yet realized, is towards interactive protocols between multiple users.Multiparty coinpools are a perfect example. Most of the specific design proposals like Ark or Timeout trees are built around a central coordinating party or service provider, which can easily facilitate a means of message passing between users wallets, but this hamstrings the design space with a single point of failure. If a hundred users are packed into a coinpool together on top of a single UTXO, the security model is based around each user having a pre-signed pathway to withdraw their coins unilaterally on-chain. This mechanism can be exercised in the event of any failure or disappearance of the coordinator to ensure their funds are not lost, but this is the least efficient way to handle such a worst case scenario.If users were able to find a mechanism to communicate with each other in the absence of the service provider or coordinator, much more efficient on-chain exits could be achieved by using the larger group multisig to migrate their funds elsewhere with a much more efficient (and therefore cheaper) on-chain footprint. NWC and Nostr are a perfect fit for such a scenario.Collaborative multisignature wallets between multiple parties could also benefit from such a protocol. In combination with standards like PSBT, a simple Nostr communication mechanism could drastically simplify the complexity of different wallets with multisig support coordinating transaction signing in a smooth and user friendly way.Discreet Log Contracts (DLC) are another amazing use for such a protocol. The entire DLC scheme relies on both parties being able to access oracle signatures to unilaterally close a contract correctly if both parties will not cooperate to settle it collaboratively. Nostr is the perfect mechanism for oracles to broadcast these signatures, and allow for a simple subscription to their Nostr key in users wallets to automatically track and acquire signatures when broadcast by oracles.As time goes on and more applications and protocols are built on top of Bitcoin with the requirement of interactivity between users, and between different applications, a general purpose communication mechanism to facilitate that without relying on a single point of failure is going to be sorely needed.Nostr is the perfect underlying protocol to facilitate that given its incredible simplicity and the redundancy of a large set of relays to utilize. NWC is the perfect example of that being a viable solution.
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NPC ordinals NFT #1516 for 3 bitcoin anyone interested in buying
NPC ordinals NFT #1516 for 3 bitcoin anyone interested in buying
BITCOIN ETFS: RESHAPING FINANCE AND POLITICS FOR THE 2024 ELECTIONSBITCOIN ETFS: RESHAPING FINANCE AND POLITICS FOR THE 2024 ELECTIONBitcoin Spot ETFs going live is a signal that Bitcoin isn't going anywhere, and politicians are going to have to start developing strategies to confront that reality.In the ever-evolving landscape of financial innovation, the recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs stands as a watershed moment, not just for digital asset enthusiasts, but for the broader financial markets and the political arena. As we edge closer to the 2024 elections, it's becoming increasingly clear that bitcoin is set to play a pivotal role in shaping the political discourse around digital assets, their regulation, and their integration into the mainstream financial ecosystem.THE SURGE OF MAINSTREAM ADOPTIONBitcoin, once a niche interest of tech enthusiasts and libertarians, has catapulted into the limelight, thanks to the sustained growth in adoption and the recent introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. This groundbreaking development is not merely a triumph for Bitcoin advocates; it signifies a leap towards widespread acceptance and normalization of digital assets. By providing a regulated and familiar investment vehicle for Bitcoin, these ETFs bridge the gap between traditional finance and the burgeoning world of digital assets, making Bitcoin accessible to a broader range of investors, including institutions.The involvement of institutional investors in Bitcoin ETFs brings a level of legitimacy and stability that was previously elusive in the cryptocurrency market. Institutions like pension funds, endowments, and large asset managers are known for their rigorous due diligence processes and conservative investment strategies. Their entry reflects a broader acceptance of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class, one that merits inclusion among traditionally conservative financial entities.The mainstreaming of Bitcoin is poised to have profound implications for the 2024 elections. For the first time, Bitcoin and digital assets are likely to emerge as a significant policy issue, one that candidates cannot afford to overlook. As more individuals and institutions invest in Bitcoin, public interest in the regulatory and policy framework governing digital assets is surging. This heightened interest will compel political candidates to develop and articulate clear positions on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, framing it as a critical component of their economic and technological platforms. Regulatory clarity and robust policy frameworks for digital assets will become key talking points in election campaigns.DIGITAL ASSET POLICY AND REGULATION AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE 2024 ELECTIONSThe 2024 elections will likely see intense debates over the future direction of the U.S. and global economies, with digital currencies playing a key role. Policies surrounding Bitcoin and digital assets will be indicative of broader economic strategies, touching on issues of financial inclusion, the digitalization of the economy, and the U.S.'s competitive position in the global financial technology race.The integration of Bitcoin into mainstream finance brings with it a host of regulatory challenges and questions. Issues like consumer protection, market stability, anti-money laundering (AML) policies, and cross-border transactions are just the tip of the iceberg. Candidates will need to navigate these complex issues, balancing the need for innovation-friendly policies with the imperative of protecting investors and maintaining financial stability. Furthermore, candidates in the 2024 elections will have to consider the U.S.'s position in the global economy, addressing issues like international cooperation on regulatory standards and the competition to attract and retain digital asset businesses. The most near term issue is that of AML and terrorist financing that was surfaced by the error-filled WSJ article and has been parroted by Senator Warren an untold number of times. Accurate data, and pushing back against the fear mongering of people like Elizabeth Warren is more easily done from the bully pulpit of the Presidency.SHIFTING VOTER SENTIMENTS AND DEMOGRAPHICSAs Bitcoin becomes a mainstream financial instrument, its influence extends beyond investment portfolios to the very heart of voter sentiment. The burgeoning class of digital asset investors, ranging from tech-savvy millennials to institutional stakeholders, represents a significant and influential demographic. Their concerns and interests in digital currency policy are likely to shape the political landscape in 2024, forcing candidates to engage with a broader range of economic issues, including the future of decentralized finance and the role of digital assets in the economy.The evolution of voter demographics and sentiments heralds a new era in political campaigning, where understanding and addressing the nuances of digital finance becomes imperative. Candidates will find themselves navigating a complex landscape where traditional economic policies intersect with emerging digital financial technologies. To resonate with this growing voter base, candidates will need to demonstrate not only an understanding of digital assets and their implications but also present forward-thinking strategies that integrate these technologies into their economic visions. Americans under the age of 30 are seven times more likely to own digital assets than an American over 65. Based on polling in Texas, we see that this trend cuts evenly across party lines.This shift in voter base also raises the bar for political discourse, demanding a more nuanced understanding of technology among political figures. No longer can digital assets be sidelined as a niche interest; they now represent a crucial component of economic discussions that can sway voter opinions. Candidates who adeptly navigate these discussions, offering innovative yet pragmatic solutions, are likely to gain traction among this pivotal demographic. The 2024 elections stand at the crossroads of traditional finance and the burgeoning digital asset industry, signaling a transition towards a political landscape increasingly shaped by Bitcoin, digital asset, and financial innovation.ADVERTISINGTHE ROLE OF EDUCATIONAL OUTREACH AND ADVOCACYAs the implications of Bitcoin ETFs permeate the mainstream, there's an increasing need for educational outreach and advocacy. Both the public and policymakers must be informed about the nuances of Bitcoin, digital currencies and blockchain technology. This education will play a crucial role in shaping informed public opinion and, consequently, the electoral choices of voters. Organizations and advocates within the digital asset space will have an important role to play in this education and advocacy effort, helping to demystify digital assets for the wider public and policymakers alike. In this dynamic environment, the leadership shown by key regional councils in advancing blockchain understanding and advocating for sound policies sets a benchmark in driving the conversation forward, showcasing the potential of focused expertise and strategic foresight in shaping the future of Bitcoin and digital assets.CONCLUSION: A NEW ERA OF POLITICSThe approval of Bitcoin ETFs is more than just a milestone for the digital asset market; it's a harbinger of a new era in political discourse. The mainstream adoption of Bitcoin and other digital currencies will force a reevaluation of economic policies, regulatory frameworks, and even the very nature of financial systems. Candidates in the 2024 elections will need to navigate this new landscape, addressing the complexities of digital assets while resonating with a voter base that is increasingly informed and influenced by the world of cryptocurrency. As we approach the 2024 elections, the intersection of Bitcoin, digital assets, blockchain, and politics is not just a passing trend but a fundamental shift in the fabric of economic and political life.

BITCOIN ETFS: RESHAPING FINANCE AND POLITICS FOR THE 2024 ELECTIONS

BITCOIN ETFS: RESHAPING FINANCE AND POLITICS FOR THE 2024 ELECTIONBitcoin Spot ETFs going live is a signal that Bitcoin isn't going anywhere, and politicians are going to have to start developing strategies to confront that reality.In the ever-evolving landscape of financial innovation, the recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs stands as a watershed moment, not just for digital asset enthusiasts, but for the broader financial markets and the political arena. As we edge closer to the 2024 elections, it's becoming increasingly clear that bitcoin is set to play a pivotal role in shaping the political discourse around digital assets, their regulation, and their integration into the mainstream financial ecosystem.THE SURGE OF MAINSTREAM ADOPTIONBitcoin, once a niche interest of tech enthusiasts and libertarians, has catapulted into the limelight, thanks to the sustained growth in adoption and the recent introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. This groundbreaking development is not merely a triumph for Bitcoin advocates; it signifies a leap towards widespread acceptance and normalization of digital assets. By providing a regulated and familiar investment vehicle for Bitcoin, these ETFs bridge the gap between traditional finance and the burgeoning world of digital assets, making Bitcoin accessible to a broader range of investors, including institutions.The involvement of institutional investors in Bitcoin ETFs brings a level of legitimacy and stability that was previously elusive in the cryptocurrency market. Institutions like pension funds, endowments, and large asset managers are known for their rigorous due diligence processes and conservative investment strategies. Their entry reflects a broader acceptance of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class, one that merits inclusion among traditionally conservative financial entities.The mainstreaming of Bitcoin is poised to have profound implications for the 2024 elections. For the first time, Bitcoin and digital assets are likely to emerge as a significant policy issue, one that candidates cannot afford to overlook. As more individuals and institutions invest in Bitcoin, public interest in the regulatory and policy framework governing digital assets is surging. This heightened interest will compel political candidates to develop and articulate clear positions on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, framing it as a critical component of their economic and technological platforms. Regulatory clarity and robust policy frameworks for digital assets will become key talking points in election campaigns.DIGITAL ASSET POLICY AND REGULATION AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE 2024 ELECTIONSThe 2024 elections will likely see intense debates over the future direction of the U.S. and global economies, with digital currencies playing a key role. Policies surrounding Bitcoin and digital assets will be indicative of broader economic strategies, touching on issues of financial inclusion, the digitalization of the economy, and the U.S.'s competitive position in the global financial technology race.The integration of Bitcoin into mainstream finance brings with it a host of regulatory challenges and questions. Issues like consumer protection, market stability, anti-money laundering (AML) policies, and cross-border transactions are just the tip of the iceberg. Candidates will need to navigate these complex issues, balancing the need for innovation-friendly policies with the imperative of protecting investors and maintaining financial stability. Furthermore, candidates in the 2024 elections will have to consider the U.S.'s position in the global economy, addressing issues like international cooperation on regulatory standards and the competition to attract and retain digital asset businesses. The most near term issue is that of AML and terrorist financing that was surfaced by the error-filled WSJ article and has been parroted by Senator Warren an untold number of times. Accurate data, and pushing back against the fear mongering of people like Elizabeth Warren is more easily done from the bully pulpit of the Presidency.SHIFTING VOTER SENTIMENTS AND DEMOGRAPHICSAs Bitcoin becomes a mainstream financial instrument, its influence extends beyond investment portfolios to the very heart of voter sentiment. The burgeoning class of digital asset investors, ranging from tech-savvy millennials to institutional stakeholders, represents a significant and influential demographic. Their concerns and interests in digital currency policy are likely to shape the political landscape in 2024, forcing candidates to engage with a broader range of economic issues, including the future of decentralized finance and the role of digital assets in the economy.The evolution of voter demographics and sentiments heralds a new era in political campaigning, where understanding and addressing the nuances of digital finance becomes imperative. Candidates will find themselves navigating a complex landscape where traditional economic policies intersect with emerging digital financial technologies. To resonate with this growing voter base, candidates will need to demonstrate not only an understanding of digital assets and their implications but also present forward-thinking strategies that integrate these technologies into their economic visions. Americans under the age of 30 are seven times more likely to own digital assets than an American over 65. Based on polling in Texas, we see that this trend cuts evenly across party lines.This shift in voter base also raises the bar for political discourse, demanding a more nuanced understanding of technology among political figures. No longer can digital assets be sidelined as a niche interest; they now represent a crucial component of economic discussions that can sway voter opinions. Candidates who adeptly navigate these discussions, offering innovative yet pragmatic solutions, are likely to gain traction among this pivotal demographic. The 2024 elections stand at the crossroads of traditional finance and the burgeoning digital asset industry, signaling a transition towards a political landscape increasingly shaped by Bitcoin, digital asset, and financial innovation.ADVERTISINGTHE ROLE OF EDUCATIONAL OUTREACH AND ADVOCACYAs the implications of Bitcoin ETFs permeate the mainstream, there's an increasing need for educational outreach and advocacy. Both the public and policymakers must be informed about the nuances of Bitcoin, digital currencies and blockchain technology. This education will play a crucial role in shaping informed public opinion and, consequently, the electoral choices of voters. Organizations and advocates within the digital asset space will have an important role to play in this education and advocacy effort, helping to demystify digital assets for the wider public and policymakers alike. In this dynamic environment, the leadership shown by key regional councils in advancing blockchain understanding and advocating for sound policies sets a benchmark in driving the conversation forward, showcasing the potential of focused expertise and strategic foresight in shaping the future of Bitcoin and digital assets.CONCLUSION: A NEW ERA OF POLITICSThe approval of Bitcoin ETFs is more than just a milestone for the digital asset market; it's a harbinger of a new era in political discourse. The mainstream adoption of Bitcoin and other digital currencies will force a reevaluation of economic policies, regulatory frameworks, and even the very nature of financial systems. Candidates in the 2024 elections will need to navigate this new landscape, addressing the complexities of digital assets while resonating with a voter base that is increasingly informed and influenced by the world of cryptocurrency. As we approach the 2024 elections, the intersection of Bitcoin, digital assets, blockchain, and politics is not just a passing trend but a fundamental shift in the fabric of economic and political life.
GBTC OUTFLOWS: FORECASTING TOTAL BITCOIN SELLING PRESSURE & MARKET IMPACTGBTC OUTFLOWS: FORECASTING TOTAL BITCOIN SELLING PRESSURE & MARKET IMPACTDAVID BAILEY AND SPENCER NICHOLSUPDATED:JAN 26, 2024ORIGINAL:JAN 26, 2024Despite $824 million of net inflows since Spot ETF approval, bitcoin fell 19% in part from $4.39 billion bleeding out of GBTC. This is good for Bitcoin.The following is a heuristic analysis of GBTC outflows and is not intended to be strictly mathematical, but instead to serve as a tool to help people understand the current state of GBTC selling from a high level, and to estimate the scale of future outflows that may occur.NUMBER GO DOWNJanuary 25, 2024 – Since Wall Street came to Bitcoin under the auspices of Spot ETF approval, the market has been met with relentless selling from the largest pool of bitcoin in the world: the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) which held more than 630,000 bitcoin at its peak. After conversion from a closed-end fund to a Spot ETF, GBTC’s treasury (3% of all 21 million bitcoin) has bled more than $4 billion during the first 9 days of ETF trading, while other ETF participants have seen inflows of approximately $5.2 billion over that same period. The result – $824 million in net inflows – is somewhat surprising given the sharply negative price action since the SEC lent its stamp of approval.Source: James Seffart, @JSefyySource: James Seffart, @JSefyyIn trying to forecast the near-term price impact of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, we must first understand for how long and to what magnitude GBTC outflows will continue. Below is a review of the causes of GBTC outflows, who the sellers are, their estimated relative stockpiles, and how long we can expect the outflows to take. Ultimately these projected outflows, despite being undoubtedly large, are counterintuitively extremely bullish for bitcoin in the medium-term despite the downside volatility that we have all experienced (and perhaps most did not expect) post ETF-approval.THE GBTC HANGOVER: PAYING FOR ITFirst, some housekeeping on GBTC. It is now plainly clear just how important of a catalyst the GBTC arbitrage trade was in fomenting the 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull run. The GBTC premium was the rocket fuel driving the market higher, allowing market participants (3AC, Babel, Celsius, Blockfi, Voyager etc.) to acquire shares at net asset value, all the while marking their book value up to include the premium. Essentially, the premium drove demand for creation of GBTC shares, which in turn drove bidding for spot bitcoin. It was basically risk free…While the premium took the market higher during the 2020+ bull run and billions of dollars poured in to capture the GBTC premium, the story quickly turned sour. As the GBTC golden goose ran dry and the Trust began trading below NAV in February 2021, a daisy chain of liquidations ensued. The GBTC discount essentially took the balance sheet of the entire industry down with it.Sparked by the implosion of Terra Luna in May 2022, cascading liquidations of GBTC shares by parties like 3AC and Babel (the so-called “crypto contagion”) ensued, pushing the GBTC discount down even further. Since then, GBTC has been an albatross around the neck of bitcoin, and continues to be, as the bankruptcy estates of those hung out to dry on the GBTC “risk free” trade are still liquidating their GBTC shares to this day. Of the aforementioned victims of the “risk free” trade and its collateral damage, the FTX estate (the largest of those parties) finally liquidated 20,000 BTC across the first 8 days of Spot Bitcoin ETF trading in order to pay back its creditors.It is also important to note the role of the steep GBTC discount relative to NAV and its impact on spot bitcoin demand. The discount incentivized investors to go long GBTC and short BTC, collecting a BTC-denominated return as GBTC crept back up toward NAV. This dynamic further siphoned spot bitcoin demand away – a toxic combination that has further plagued the market until the GBTC discount recently returned to near-neutral post ETF approval.Source: ycharts.comSource: ycharts.comWith all that said, there are considerable quantities of bankruptcy estates that still hold GBTC and will continue to liquidate from the stockpile of 600,000 BTC that Grayscale owned (512,000 BTC as of January 26, 2024). The following is an attempt to highlight different segments of GBTC shareholders, and to then interpret what additional outflows we may see in accordance with the financial strategy for each segment.OPTIMAL STRATEGY FOR DIFFERENT SEGMENTS OF GBTC OWNERSSimply put, the question is: of the ~600,000 Bitcoin that were in the trust, how many of them are likely to exit GBTC in total? Subsequently, of those outflows, how many are going to rotate back into a Bitcoin product, or Bitcoin itself, thus largely negating the selling pressure? This is where it gets tricky, and knowing who owns GBTC shares, and what their incentives are, is important.The two key aspects driving GBTC outflows are as follows: fee structure (1.5% annual fee) and idiosyncratic selling depending on each shareholder's unique financial circumstance (cost basis, tax incentives, bankruptcy etc.).ADVERTISINGBANKRUPTCY ESTATESEstimated Ownership: 15% (89.5m shares | 77,000 BTC)As of January 22, 2024 the FTX estate has liquidated its entire GBTC holdings of 22m shares (~20,000 BTC). Other bankrupt parties, including GBTC sister company Genesis Global (36m shares / ~32,000 BTC) and an additional (not publicly identified) entity holds approximately 31m shares (~28,000 BTC).To reiterate: bankruptcy estates held approximately 15.5% of GBTC shares (90m shares / ~80,000 BTC), and likely most or all of these shares will be sold as soon as legally possible in order to repay the creditors of these estates. The FTX estate has already sold 22 million shares (~20,000 BTC), while it is not clear if Genesis and the other party have sold their stake. Taking all of this together, it is likely that a significant portion of bankruptcy sales have already been digested by the market aided in no small part by FTX ripping off the bandaid on January 22, 2024.One wrinkle to add to the bankruptcy sales: these will likely not be smooth or drawn out, but more lump-sum as in the case of FTX. Conversely, other types of shareholders will likely exit their positions in a more drawn-out manner rather than liquidating their holdings in one fell swoop. Once legal hangups are taken care of, it is very likely that 100% of bankruptcy estate shares will be sold.RETAIL BROKERAGE & RETIREMENT ACCOUNTSEstimated Ownership: 50% (286.5m shares | 255,000 BTC)Next up, retail brokerage account shareholders. GBTC, as one of the first passive products available for retail investors when it launched in 2013, has a massive retail contingency. In my estimation, retail investors hold approximately 50% of GBTC shares (286m shares / ~255,000 bitcoin). This is the trickiest tranche of shares to project in terms of their optimal path forward because their decision to sell or not will depend upon the price of bitcoin, which then dictates the tax status for each share purchase.For example, if the price of bitcoin rises, a greater proportion of retail shares will be in-profit, meaning if they rotate out of GBTC, they will incur a taxable event in the form of capital gains, thus they will likely stay put. However, the inverse is true as well. If the price of bitcoin continues to fall, more GBTC investors will not incur a taxable event, and thus will be incentivized to exit. This potential feedback loop marginally increases the pool of sellers that can exit without a tax penalty. Given GBTC’s unique availability to those early to bitcoin (therefore likely in profit), it is likely that most retail investors will stay put. To put a number on it, it is feasible that 25% retail brokerage accounts will sell, but this is subject to change depending upon bitcoin price action (as noted above).Next up we have retail investors with a tax exempt status who allocated via IRAs (retirement accounts). These shareholders are extremely sensitive to the fee structure and can sell without a taxable event given their IRA status. With GBTC’ egregious 1.5% annual fee (six times that of GBTC’s competitors), it is all but certain a significant portion of this segment will exit GBTC in favor of other spot ETFs. It is likely that ~75% of these shareholders will exit, while many will remain due to apathy or misunderstanding of GBTC’s fee structure in relation to other products (or they simply value the liquidity that GBTC offers in relation to other ETF products).On the bright side for spot bitcoin demand from retirement accounts, these GBTC outflows will likely be met with inflows into other Spot ETF products, as they will likely just rotate rather than exiting bitcoin into cash.INSTITUTIONAL SHAREHOLDERSEstimated Ownership: 35% (200,000,000 shares | 180,000 BTC)And finally, we have the institutions, which account for approximately 180,000 bitcoin. These players include FirTree and Saba Capital, as well as hedge funds that wanted to arbitrage the GBTC discount and spot bitcoin price discrepancy. This was done by going long GBTC and short bitcoin in order to have net neutral bitcoin positioning and capture GBTC’s return to NAV.As a caveat, this tranche of shareholders is opaque and hard to forecast, and also acts as a bellwether for bitcoin demand from TradFi. For those with GBTC exposure purely for the aforementioned arbitrage trade, we can assume they will not return to purchase bitcoin through any other mechanism. We estimate investors of this type to make up 25% of all GBTC shares (143m shares / ~130,000 BTC). This is by no means certain, but it would reason that greater than 50% of TradFi will exit to cash without returning to a bitcoin product or physical bitcoin.For Bitcoin-native funds and Bitcoin whales (~5% of total shares), it is likely that their sold GBTC shares will be recycled into bitcoin, resulting in a net-flat impact on bitcoin price. For crypto-native investors (~5% of total shares), they will likely exit GBTC into cash and other crypto assets (not bitcoin). Combined, these two cohorts (57m shares / ~50,000 BTC) will have a net neutral to slightly negative impact on bitcoin price given their relative rotations to cash and bitcoin.TOTAL GBTC OUTFLOWS & NET BITCOIN IMPACTTo be clear, there is a large amount of uncertainty in these projections, but the following is a ballpark estimate of the overall redemption landscape given the dynamics mentioned between bankruptcy estates, retail brokerage accounts, retirement accounts, and institutional investors.PROJECTED OUTFLOWS BREAKDOWN:250,000 to 350,000 BTC total projected GBTC outflows100,000 to 150,000 BTC expected to leave the trust and be converted into cash150,000 to 200,000 BTC in GBTC outflows rotating into other trusts or products250,000 to 350,000 bitcoin will remain in GBTC100,000 to 150,000 net-BTC selling pressureTOTAL Expected GBTC-Related Outflows Resulting In Net-BTC Selling Pressure: 100,000 to 150,000 BTCAs of January 26, 2024 approximately 115,000 bitcoin have left GBTC. Given Alameda’s recorded sale (20,000 bitcoin), we estimate that of the other ~95,000 bitcoin, half have rotated into cash, and half have rotated into bitcoin or other bitcoin products. This implies net-neutral market impact from GBTC outflows.ESTIMATED OUTFLOWS YET TO OCCUR:Bankruptcy Estates: 55,000Retail Brokerage Accounts: 65,000 - 75,000 BTCRetirement Accounts: 10,000 - 12,250 BTCInstitutional Investors: 35,000 - 40,000 BTCTOTAL Estimated Outflows To Come: ~135,000 - 230,000 BTCNote: as said previously, these estimates are the result of a heuristic analysis and should not be interpreted as financial advice and simply aim to inform the reader of what the overall outflow landscape may look like. Additionally, these estimates are pursuant to market conditions.GRADUALLY, THEN SUDDENLY: A FAREWELL TO BEARSIn summary, we estimate that the market has already stomached approximately 30-45% of all projected GBTC outflows (115,000 BTC of 250,000-300,000 BTC projected total outflows) and that the remaining 55-70% of expected outflows will follow in short order over the next 20-30 trading days. All in, 150,000 - 200,000 BTC in net selling pressure may result from GBTC sales given that the significant proportion of GBTC outflows will either rotate into other Spot ETF products, or into cold storage bitcoin.We are through the brunt of the pain from Barry Silbert’s GBTC gauntlet and that is reason to celebrate. The market will be much better off on the other side: GBTC will have finally relinquished its stranglehold over bitcoin markets, and without the specter of the discount or future firesales hanging over the market, bitcoin will be much less encumbered when it does arise. While it will take time to digest the rest of the GBTC outflows, and there will likely be a long tail of people exiting their position (mentioned previously), bitcoin will have plenty of room to run when the Spot ETFs settle into a groove.Oh, and did I mention the halving is coming? But that’s a story for another time. Bitcoin Magazine is wholly owned by BTC Inc., which operates UTXO Management, a regulated capital allocator focused on the digital assets industry. UTXO invests in a variety of Bitcoin businesses, and maintains significant holdings in digital assets.

GBTC OUTFLOWS: FORECASTING TOTAL BITCOIN SELLING PRESSURE & MARKET IMPACT

GBTC OUTFLOWS: FORECASTING TOTAL BITCOIN SELLING PRESSURE & MARKET IMPACTDAVID BAILEY AND SPENCER NICHOLSUPDATED:JAN 26, 2024ORIGINAL:JAN 26, 2024Despite $824 million of net inflows since Spot ETF approval, bitcoin fell 19% in part from $4.39 billion bleeding out of GBTC. This is good for Bitcoin.The following is a heuristic analysis of GBTC outflows and is not intended to be strictly mathematical, but instead to serve as a tool to help people understand the current state of GBTC selling from a high level, and to estimate the scale of future outflows that may occur.NUMBER GO DOWNJanuary 25, 2024 – Since Wall Street came to Bitcoin under the auspices of Spot ETF approval, the market has been met with relentless selling from the largest pool of bitcoin in the world: the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) which held more than 630,000 bitcoin at its peak. After conversion from a closed-end fund to a Spot ETF, GBTC’s treasury (3% of all 21 million bitcoin) has bled more than $4 billion during the first 9 days of ETF trading, while other ETF participants have seen inflows of approximately $5.2 billion over that same period. The result – $824 million in net inflows – is somewhat surprising given the sharply negative price action since the SEC lent its stamp of approval.Source: James Seffart, @JSefyySource: James Seffart, @JSefyyIn trying to forecast the near-term price impact of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, we must first understand for how long and to what magnitude GBTC outflows will continue. Below is a review of the causes of GBTC outflows, who the sellers are, their estimated relative stockpiles, and how long we can expect the outflows to take. Ultimately these projected outflows, despite being undoubtedly large, are counterintuitively extremely bullish for bitcoin in the medium-term despite the downside volatility that we have all experienced (and perhaps most did not expect) post ETF-approval.THE GBTC HANGOVER: PAYING FOR ITFirst, some housekeeping on GBTC. It is now plainly clear just how important of a catalyst the GBTC arbitrage trade was in fomenting the 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull run. The GBTC premium was the rocket fuel driving the market higher, allowing market participants (3AC, Babel, Celsius, Blockfi, Voyager etc.) to acquire shares at net asset value, all the while marking their book value up to include the premium. Essentially, the premium drove demand for creation of GBTC shares, which in turn drove bidding for spot bitcoin. It was basically risk free…While the premium took the market higher during the 2020+ bull run and billions of dollars poured in to capture the GBTC premium, the story quickly turned sour. As the GBTC golden goose ran dry and the Trust began trading below NAV in February 2021, a daisy chain of liquidations ensued. The GBTC discount essentially took the balance sheet of the entire industry down with it.Sparked by the implosion of Terra Luna in May 2022, cascading liquidations of GBTC shares by parties like 3AC and Babel (the so-called “crypto contagion”) ensued, pushing the GBTC discount down even further. Since then, GBTC has been an albatross around the neck of bitcoin, and continues to be, as the bankruptcy estates of those hung out to dry on the GBTC “risk free” trade are still liquidating their GBTC shares to this day. Of the aforementioned victims of the “risk free” trade and its collateral damage, the FTX estate (the largest of those parties) finally liquidated 20,000 BTC across the first 8 days of Spot Bitcoin ETF trading in order to pay back its creditors.It is also important to note the role of the steep GBTC discount relative to NAV and its impact on spot bitcoin demand. The discount incentivized investors to go long GBTC and short BTC, collecting a BTC-denominated return as GBTC crept back up toward NAV. This dynamic further siphoned spot bitcoin demand away – a toxic combination that has further plagued the market until the GBTC discount recently returned to near-neutral post ETF approval.Source: ycharts.comSource: ycharts.comWith all that said, there are considerable quantities of bankruptcy estates that still hold GBTC and will continue to liquidate from the stockpile of 600,000 BTC that Grayscale owned (512,000 BTC as of January 26, 2024). The following is an attempt to highlight different segments of GBTC shareholders, and to then interpret what additional outflows we may see in accordance with the financial strategy for each segment.OPTIMAL STRATEGY FOR DIFFERENT SEGMENTS OF GBTC OWNERSSimply put, the question is: of the ~600,000 Bitcoin that were in the trust, how many of them are likely to exit GBTC in total? Subsequently, of those outflows, how many are going to rotate back into a Bitcoin product, or Bitcoin itself, thus largely negating the selling pressure? This is where it gets tricky, and knowing who owns GBTC shares, and what their incentives are, is important.The two key aspects driving GBTC outflows are as follows: fee structure (1.5% annual fee) and idiosyncratic selling depending on each shareholder's unique financial circumstance (cost basis, tax incentives, bankruptcy etc.).ADVERTISINGBANKRUPTCY ESTATESEstimated Ownership: 15% (89.5m shares | 77,000 BTC)As of January 22, 2024 the FTX estate has liquidated its entire GBTC holdings of 22m shares (~20,000 BTC). Other bankrupt parties, including GBTC sister company Genesis Global (36m shares / ~32,000 BTC) and an additional (not publicly identified) entity holds approximately 31m shares (~28,000 BTC).To reiterate: bankruptcy estates held approximately 15.5% of GBTC shares (90m shares / ~80,000 BTC), and likely most or all of these shares will be sold as soon as legally possible in order to repay the creditors of these estates. The FTX estate has already sold 22 million shares (~20,000 BTC), while it is not clear if Genesis and the other party have sold their stake. Taking all of this together, it is likely that a significant portion of bankruptcy sales have already been digested by the market aided in no small part by FTX ripping off the bandaid on January 22, 2024.One wrinkle to add to the bankruptcy sales: these will likely not be smooth or drawn out, but more lump-sum as in the case of FTX. Conversely, other types of shareholders will likely exit their positions in a more drawn-out manner rather than liquidating their holdings in one fell swoop. Once legal hangups are taken care of, it is very likely that 100% of bankruptcy estate shares will be sold.RETAIL BROKERAGE & RETIREMENT ACCOUNTSEstimated Ownership: 50% (286.5m shares | 255,000 BTC)Next up, retail brokerage account shareholders. GBTC, as one of the first passive products available for retail investors when it launched in 2013, has a massive retail contingency. In my estimation, retail investors hold approximately 50% of GBTC shares (286m shares / ~255,000 bitcoin). This is the trickiest tranche of shares to project in terms of their optimal path forward because their decision to sell or not will depend upon the price of bitcoin, which then dictates the tax status for each share purchase.For example, if the price of bitcoin rises, a greater proportion of retail shares will be in-profit, meaning if they rotate out of GBTC, they will incur a taxable event in the form of capital gains, thus they will likely stay put. However, the inverse is true as well. If the price of bitcoin continues to fall, more GBTC investors will not incur a taxable event, and thus will be incentivized to exit. This potential feedback loop marginally increases the pool of sellers that can exit without a tax penalty. Given GBTC’s unique availability to those early to bitcoin (therefore likely in profit), it is likely that most retail investors will stay put. To put a number on it, it is feasible that 25% retail brokerage accounts will sell, but this is subject to change depending upon bitcoin price action (as noted above).Next up we have retail investors with a tax exempt status who allocated via IRAs (retirement accounts). These shareholders are extremely sensitive to the fee structure and can sell without a taxable event given their IRA status. With GBTC’ egregious 1.5% annual fee (six times that of GBTC’s competitors), it is all but certain a significant portion of this segment will exit GBTC in favor of other spot ETFs. It is likely that ~75% of these shareholders will exit, while many will remain due to apathy or misunderstanding of GBTC’s fee structure in relation to other products (or they simply value the liquidity that GBTC offers in relation to other ETF products).On the bright side for spot bitcoin demand from retirement accounts, these GBTC outflows will likely be met with inflows into other Spot ETF products, as they will likely just rotate rather than exiting bitcoin into cash.INSTITUTIONAL SHAREHOLDERSEstimated Ownership: 35% (200,000,000 shares | 180,000 BTC)And finally, we have the institutions, which account for approximately 180,000 bitcoin. These players include FirTree and Saba Capital, as well as hedge funds that wanted to arbitrage the GBTC discount and spot bitcoin price discrepancy. This was done by going long GBTC and short bitcoin in order to have net neutral bitcoin positioning and capture GBTC’s return to NAV.As a caveat, this tranche of shareholders is opaque and hard to forecast, and also acts as a bellwether for bitcoin demand from TradFi. For those with GBTC exposure purely for the aforementioned arbitrage trade, we can assume they will not return to purchase bitcoin through any other mechanism. We estimate investors of this type to make up 25% of all GBTC shares (143m shares / ~130,000 BTC). This is by no means certain, but it would reason that greater than 50% of TradFi will exit to cash without returning to a bitcoin product or physical bitcoin.For Bitcoin-native funds and Bitcoin whales (~5% of total shares), it is likely that their sold GBTC shares will be recycled into bitcoin, resulting in a net-flat impact on bitcoin price. For crypto-native investors (~5% of total shares), they will likely exit GBTC into cash and other crypto assets (not bitcoin). Combined, these two cohorts (57m shares / ~50,000 BTC) will have a net neutral to slightly negative impact on bitcoin price given their relative rotations to cash and bitcoin.TOTAL GBTC OUTFLOWS & NET BITCOIN IMPACTTo be clear, there is a large amount of uncertainty in these projections, but the following is a ballpark estimate of the overall redemption landscape given the dynamics mentioned between bankruptcy estates, retail brokerage accounts, retirement accounts, and institutional investors.PROJECTED OUTFLOWS BREAKDOWN:250,000 to 350,000 BTC total projected GBTC outflows100,000 to 150,000 BTC expected to leave the trust and be converted into cash150,000 to 200,000 BTC in GBTC outflows rotating into other trusts or products250,000 to 350,000 bitcoin will remain in GBTC100,000 to 150,000 net-BTC selling pressureTOTAL Expected GBTC-Related Outflows Resulting In Net-BTC Selling Pressure: 100,000 to 150,000 BTCAs of January 26, 2024 approximately 115,000 bitcoin have left GBTC. Given Alameda’s recorded sale (20,000 bitcoin), we estimate that of the other ~95,000 bitcoin, half have rotated into cash, and half have rotated into bitcoin or other bitcoin products. This implies net-neutral market impact from GBTC outflows.ESTIMATED OUTFLOWS YET TO OCCUR:Bankruptcy Estates: 55,000Retail Brokerage Accounts: 65,000 - 75,000 BTCRetirement Accounts: 10,000 - 12,250 BTCInstitutional Investors: 35,000 - 40,000 BTCTOTAL Estimated Outflows To Come: ~135,000 - 230,000 BTCNote: as said previously, these estimates are the result of a heuristic analysis and should not be interpreted as financial advice and simply aim to inform the reader of what the overall outflow landscape may look like. Additionally, these estimates are pursuant to market conditions.GRADUALLY, THEN SUDDENLY: A FAREWELL TO BEARSIn summary, we estimate that the market has already stomached approximately 30-45% of all projected GBTC outflows (115,000 BTC of 250,000-300,000 BTC projected total outflows) and that the remaining 55-70% of expected outflows will follow in short order over the next 20-30 trading days. All in, 150,000 - 200,000 BTC in net selling pressure may result from GBTC sales given that the significant proportion of GBTC outflows will either rotate into other Spot ETF products, or into cold storage bitcoin.We are through the brunt of the pain from Barry Silbert’s GBTC gauntlet and that is reason to celebrate. The market will be much better off on the other side: GBTC will have finally relinquished its stranglehold over bitcoin markets, and without the specter of the discount or future firesales hanging over the market, bitcoin will be much less encumbered when it does arise. While it will take time to digest the rest of the GBTC outflows, and there will likely be a long tail of people exiting their position (mentioned previously), bitcoin will have plenty of room to run when the Spot ETFs settle into a groove.Oh, and did I mention the halving is coming? But that’s a story for another time. Bitcoin Magazine is wholly owned by BTC Inc., which operates UTXO Management, a regulated capital allocator focused on the digital assets industry. UTXO invests in a variety of Bitcoin businesses, and maintains significant holdings in digital assets.
BLACKROCK'S SPOT BITCOIN ETF VOLUME TOPPING GBTC TODAY, SIGNALING MARKET SHIFT For the first time since launch, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF is outpacing the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in terms of trading volume so far today, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart. BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF volume surpassing GBTC for the first time hints at a slow down in outflows for Grayscale's ETF, which has had over $5 billion in outflows since launch. As highlighted below, the other spot Bitcoin ETFs have had total gross inflows of over $5.8 billion. This trend could mark a significant shift in suggesting that the selling of GBTC is weakening, thus easing their current massive selling pressure of Bitcoin. Other spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced large amounts of inflows such as BlackRock and Fidelity, who have a combined 98,264 BTC worth over $4.1 billion for their ETFs. As GBTC outflows lessen and inflows of other spot Bitcoin ETFs rise, BTC will continue to get taken off the market in record pace. To put this all into context, BlackRock have accumulated over 52,026 BTC since launch earlier this month. MicroStrategy, known for their aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, have accumulated 189,150 BTC over the last ~four years. As market participants eagerly wait in anticipation for the final numbers at the end of the day to see if the inflows on BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF can continue to outpace the outflows of GBTC, Bitcoin pumps over $43,000.
BLACKROCK'S SPOT BITCOIN ETF VOLUME TOPPING GBTC TODAY, SIGNALING MARKET SHIFT

For the first time since launch, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF is outpacing the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in terms of trading volume so far today, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF volume surpassing GBTC for the first time hints at a slow down in outflows for Grayscale's ETF, which has had over $5 billion in outflows since launch. As highlighted below, the other spot Bitcoin ETFs have had total gross inflows of over $5.8 billion.
This trend could mark a significant shift in suggesting that the selling of GBTC is weakening, thus easing their current massive selling pressure of Bitcoin. Other spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced large amounts of inflows such as BlackRock and Fidelity, who have a combined 98,264 BTC worth over $4.1 billion for their ETFs.

As GBTC outflows lessen and inflows of other spot Bitcoin ETFs rise, BTC will continue to get taken off the market in record pace. To put this all into context, BlackRock have accumulated over 52,026 BTC since launch earlier this month. MicroStrategy, known for their aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, have accumulated 189,150 BTC over the last ~four years.

As market participants eagerly wait in anticipation for the final numbers at the end of the day to see if the inflows on BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF can continue to outpace the outflows of GBTC, Bitcoin pumps over $43,000.
SPOT BITCOIN ETF ISSUER BITWISE PLEDGES 10% OF PROFITS TO FUND OPEN-SOURCE BTC DEVELOPMENT This commitment to donating 10% of spot Bitcoin ETF profits doubles what VanEck pledged to donate last Friday. Today, Bitwise Asset Management unveiled a new initiative, confirming their pledge to allocate 10% of profits from the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) towards supporting Bitcoin open-source development, according to a press release sent to Bitcoin Magazine. The donations will benefit three esteemed non-profit organizations - Brink, OpenSats, and the Human Rights Foundation’s Bitcoin Development Fund.“Bitcoin was launched 15 years ago without a fundraise and has always been maintained by a dedicated community of open source developers,” said Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley. “We’re excited for the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (ticker: BITB) to provide a source of recurring funding for those unsung heroes who work tirelessly to improve the Bitcoin network’s security, scalability, and usability every day.” The donations, to be made annually for the next decade, come without any strings attached, reinforcing Bitwise's long-term dedication to fostering sustainable support for Bitcoin Core Development. “It is important to support Bitcoin Core Development in a long-term sustainable way,” said Mike Schmidt, the executive director of Brink. “Bitwise's decade-long pledge is a win-win-win with Bitwise profits leading to developer funding leading to improvements to the open source software underpinning the industry.” The recipient organizations were carefully chosen based on their established track record and commitment to funding Bitcoin open-source development, subject to annual review for continued alignment with Bitwise's mission, according to the release. Acknowledging Bitwise's proactive stance, Matt Odell, cofounder of OpenSats, lauded the company for setting a precedent in supporting open-source contributors vital to the Bitcoin ecosystem: "It is great to see large institutions supporting the open-source contributors who make this ecosystem possible.
SPOT BITCOIN ETF ISSUER BITWISE PLEDGES 10% OF PROFITS TO FUND OPEN-SOURCE BTC DEVELOPMENT

This commitment to donating 10% of spot Bitcoin ETF profits doubles what VanEck pledged to donate last Friday.
Today, Bitwise Asset Management unveiled a new initiative, confirming their pledge to allocate 10% of profits from the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) towards supporting Bitcoin open-source development, according to a press release sent to Bitcoin Magazine.

The donations will benefit three esteemed non-profit organizations - Brink, OpenSats, and the Human Rights Foundation’s Bitcoin Development Fund.“Bitcoin was launched 15 years ago without a fundraise and has always been maintained by a dedicated community of open source developers,” said Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley. “We’re excited for the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (ticker: BITB) to provide a source of recurring funding for those unsung heroes who work tirelessly to improve the Bitcoin network’s security, scalability, and usability every day.”

The donations, to be made annually for the next decade, come without any strings attached, reinforcing Bitwise's long-term dedication to fostering sustainable support for Bitcoin Core Development.

“It is important to support Bitcoin Core Development in a long-term sustainable way,” said Mike Schmidt, the executive director of Brink. “Bitwise's decade-long pledge is a win-win-win with Bitwise profits leading to developer funding leading to improvements to the open source software underpinning the industry.”

The recipient organizations were carefully chosen based on their established track record and commitment to funding Bitcoin open-source development, subject to annual review for continued alignment with Bitwise's mission, according to the release.
Acknowledging Bitwise's proactive stance, Matt Odell, cofounder of OpenSats, lauded the company for setting a precedent in supporting open-source contributors vital to the Bitcoin ecosystem: "It is great to see large institutions supporting the open-source contributors who make this ecosystem possible.
APPROVED: SPOT BITCOIN ETFS TO TRADE ON US MARKETS IN HISTORIC MILESTONE The US will finally be getting spot Bitcoin ETFs, with industry analysts predicting a surge in institutional capital inflow into BTC.
APPROVED: SPOT BITCOIN ETFS TO TRADE ON US MARKETS IN HISTORIC MILESTONE

The US will finally be getting spot Bitcoin ETFs, with industry analysts predicting a surge in institutional capital inflow into BTC.
GOOGLE REVISES GUIDELINES TO ALLOW BITCOIN ETFS TO ADVERTISE THEIR PRODUCTSToday, Google has revised its advertising guidelines, now permitting cryptocurrency trusts, such as Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), to promote their products. Spot Bitcoin ETF issuers such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton have wasted no time in marketing their funds, with advertisements already starting to emerge.This revision comes at an interesting time as the discussion around Bitcoin ETFs continues to gains momentum, after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the country. Google's decision to allow advertising for Bitcoin ETFs provides these financial instruments with a much broader reach and exposure to a wider audience.The updated guidelines mean that companies managing Bitcoin ETFs can now leverage Google's advertising platform to raise awareness and attract investors. This change could contribute to increased visibility and understanding of Bitcoin ETFs among both institutional and retail investors.Google's decision aligns with the growing acceptance of Bitcoin and related investment products in mainstream finance. The move is likely to help foster a more innovative environment for Bitcoin, as it integrates more into traditional financial markets. As the industry eagerly awaits to see how well these revised guidelines are for the Bitcoin ETFs, the impact on the advertising landscape for them could be substantial. #BitcoinETF💰💰💰 #Google

GOOGLE REVISES GUIDELINES TO ALLOW BITCOIN ETFS TO ADVERTISE THEIR PRODUCTS

Today, Google has revised its advertising guidelines, now permitting cryptocurrency trusts, such as Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), to promote their products. Spot Bitcoin ETF issuers such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton have wasted no time in marketing their funds, with advertisements already starting to emerge.This revision comes at an interesting time as the discussion around Bitcoin ETFs continues to gains momentum, after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the country. Google's decision to allow advertising for Bitcoin ETFs provides these financial instruments with a much broader reach and exposure to a wider audience.The updated guidelines mean that companies managing Bitcoin ETFs can now leverage Google's advertising platform to raise awareness and attract investors. This change could contribute to increased visibility and understanding of Bitcoin ETFs among both institutional and retail investors.Google's decision aligns with the growing acceptance of Bitcoin and related investment products in mainstream finance. The move is likely to help foster a more innovative environment for Bitcoin, as it integrates more into traditional financial markets. As the industry eagerly awaits to see how well these revised guidelines are for the Bitcoin ETFs, the impact on the advertising landscape for them could be substantial. #BitcoinETF💰💰💰 #Google
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