#BTC || Lets first look at Bitcoin. Price has retraced to previous support, 28.8k. This is the first time this level is being tested after breaking down.

#ETH || For Ethereum it's a slightly different story. The pivotal area of 2k ish has already been tested once and price is having another go.

#ethereumshanghaiupgrade is here. What is it?

"The Shanghai upgrade, scheduled for April 12, will allow network validators to withdraw funds that have been locked to secure the network since December 2020. The upgrade will complete the network’s transition to a proof-of-stake system, which started in October 2022 with the Merge", mentioned by cointelegraph.

Will it impact the market?

"While it may have some short-term negative impact on the price of Ether, the upcoming Shanghai upgrade will be highly bullish for Ethereum’s native token, as it will attract more capital to staking and increase the network’s security," according to Ethereum researcher Vivek Raman. 

#Ethereum 's price expectation

A drop to 1700 would be logical and wouldn't invalidate the uptrend. If it bounces afterwards to retest 2k remains to be seen. This would be the same sort of price action after the last update, The Merge. Considering the Macro economic position the world is in, I wouldn't rule out a drop back to lower levels, 1350 dollars. Whether we make a fresh lows in Q3 or not isn't relevant to me. I do expect with high probability Q3-Q4 2023 will be a bullish time.

#originalcontent

#BTC  || A break down how to catch a trade.

Market structure: We had a clear uptrend which is identified by new highs that are higher than the previous ones. And new lows that are higher than the previous ones. 

Higher time frame point of interest: 28.880 on Binance chart is the pivotal point. That level was the previous higher timeframe range we lost. Now that price trades into that level we can expect at least some selling pressure.

Zoomed in on the point of interest we can see a bearish order block on our left. A bearish order block is identified as the last bullish candle(s) before the downtrend. Typically we want to see a displacement after the forming of an order block.

Above this high there are selling orders in the form of stoplosses from traders who are short or limit orders from spot traders. This is significant because the market often reverses after these stoplosses are activated. This liquidity pool of stoplosses we call Buy Side Liquidity

On the 1hour timeframe we can see a market structure shift(MSS). This is when the market reverse from either bullish to bearish or vica versa on the lower timeframe. These are the first indications a market is reversing. It does not necessarily lead to a beartrend on the higher timeframe. You could go short at the pivotal point but if there is no indication (a MSS) then it's a gamble and not a trade.

On the lower timeframe its very clearly that there is a discplacement after hitting the buy side liquidity, pivotal point and higher timeframe order block. We have a confluence that suggest a selling area. Because of this price can get very volatile and create huge wicks, also due to leverage. Because of the leverage element and the 15min ob holding price i wasn't sure this could be counted as a MSS.

We choose to miss the optimal entry. Our next best plan is to wait for a break of structure (BOS). This means in this case price makes another low after MSS. This confirms our bias that the market is indeed reversing. Now we can look for sell positions.

Let's clean the chart and look for a point of interest where price could retrace back into after trading lower. We mark out the bearish order block before the breakdown happens. This is where new supply is introduced into the market in that sponsered the move down

Go unto lower timeframe and monitor price action within or near that higher time frame point of interest and look for a MSS. Extend the line because this is a potential entry point. Also mark out lower timeframe take profits points which usely are the previous lows. And mark out a higher timeframe target where you would exit the trade completely. 

Put in the trade and look at the risk and reward. This is crucial because it has to fit your personal risk management. In this trade the risk was 0.62% and the reward was 2.77% for the ultimate target. The Risk Reward Ratio is 4.47. Sounds like an awesome trade.

When the trade is going as planned we can take profit AND move our stoploss. In the case it won't reach our ultimate target we are still in profit that we secured and our stoploss is now beyond our entry. Even if the trade is stopped out, we can not loose.

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#BTC || What can we expect for Bitcoin the coming weeks?

New week. New weekly chart. A top down analysis. Last week we broke a major range from a high timeframe breaker block. This was also my reasoning for buying alts at that time. The pinbar reaction strenghtened my bias.

Currently we are trading within a weekly fair value gap. The longer term reaction remains to be seen. My target would be that weekly bearish order block as long as daily bullish structure remains intact. The daily bullish order must hold for daily trend to stay intact.

I highlighted all the breaks of structure. This is a continuation of trend. In this case it's a bullish structure. If 26.5k holds and we break the most recent high we are still in uptrend. Loose 26.5k and the markt shifts structure in the short term.

It can drop as low as 24.3k for the market to be still in uptrend on the daily timeframe. This might even be our new range. If BTC setlles in this area and trades sideways, alts have room to catch up.

If this helped in anyway: like and share!